FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 17th, 2024, through Tuesday June 18th, 2024
OZONE:
Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range today, Monday for counties in West and Southeast Michigan.
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Today, Monday, is the start of a weeklong heat wave we will be experiencing here in Michigan. Surface temperatures will climb well into the 90s with dew point temperatures well into the upper-60s to low-70s. The combination of heat and humidity will push heat indices towards 100 degrees with some areas closer to 105 degrees. Excessive heat watches and warnings are in place for the majority of the lower peninsula, with an active Air Quality Advisory in place for the counties above for today as well. Ample sunlight will be coupled with the high temperatures, both lower level and upper level, along with humidity to initiate Ozone development along the Lake Michigan shoreline as well as the metro Detroit area. This Advisory will run through midnight tonight.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, will be similar to today with the heat and humidity, however, in the afternoon, clouds move in with associated possible rain showers for the southern portions of the lower peninsula. Numerous models are showing broken to overcast cloudy skies for tomorrow afternoon which would cut off any Ozone development. Also, with possible rain showers, Ozone will not have the ingredients to produce beyond the Advisory threshold of USG for an 8-hour average. In the event some sun shines through the clouds, there may be enough initiation for hourly USG concentrations, but the overall 8-hour average should remain in the mid-high Moderate range.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Wednesday is looking to similar to today with the heat, humidity, and sunlight so there is a possibility of an Advisory for Wednesday. Because of this, EGLE will update the forecast tomorrow morning, and, more than likely, each morning for the remainder of the week.
Next Forecast update: Tuesday June 18th, 2024