FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 28, 2024, through Monday, July 1, 2024
OZONE:
8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range generally Good (Green AQI) with only a few Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible.
PM-2.5:
24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Precipitation moves from northwest to southeast across the state on Friday as a warm front moves in from the west. This front is associated with a developing low-pressure area that is forecast to track west to east across the northern Great Lakes region late Friday into Saturday. The associated cold front will follow the west-to-east track as it swings through the state on Saturday, ending the chances for showers and storms during the day. Weather conditions will be dry and cool on Sunday and Monday as high pressure settles into the region.
As for air quality, we are starting the forecast period with a low base, and both ozone and PM2.5 were in the Good range on Thursday. Moisture increasing ahead of the cold front may allow for some low Moderate PM2.5 concentrations across the southern portion of the state on Friday and/or Saturday, otherwise generally Good daily averages are expected through the period. While clouds seem to be prevalent Friday and Saturday, temperatures at the surface and upper levels may be warm enough for any locations that break into a fair amount of sunshine to reach Moderate for ozone. Cooler temperatures and a northerly flow on Sunday will produce Good ozone concentrations. Lighter winds develop Monday, and plenty of sunshine is expected; however, cooler temperatures at the surface and upper levels will keep ozone from reaching higher than low Moderate.
Canadian wildfire activity is currently below average for this time of year, and air quality impacts due to wildfire smoke are not anticipated during this forecast period. We will keep track of weather conditions, smoke plume tracks, and air quality levels during the weekend, and this forecast will be updated if necessary.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
After a quiet start to the week, the next weather system brings chances for precipitation and warmer temperatures back into the forecast by Tuesday. In the extended forecast, we do not anticipate air quality to reach higher than Moderate.
Next Forecast update: Monday, July 1, 2024