FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 2, 2023, through Friday, October 6, 2023
Ozone: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be a mixture of Good to Moderate through Wednesday then Good.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mixture of Good to Moderate through Wednesday then Good.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: The high pressure ridge currently over the Great Lakes region will persist through Wednesday and, in fact, some locations could see record high temperatures during Tuesday.
While very rare to see significant ozone development in Michigan during October, it is not unlikely that we could see some High Moderates along the Lake Michigan coast during Tuesday. With the shorter hours of daylight, getting to USG would be difficult although not impossible. However, since the possibilities are too remote and unlikely, no type of Action Day is being considered.
A pair of quick hitting cold fronts will put an end to the current summer-like conditions. The first cold front will arrive during the early Thursday morning time frame. I expect high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be some 20 degrees cooler than what we will see during the first half of the week. Any Air Quality issues should be removed at that time.
The second front will follow-up during Friday and usher in significant cooler air. I expect high temperatures on Saturday to be 30 degrees cooler than the high temperatures we will see during Monday through Wednesday.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to start the next work week.
Next Forecast Update: Friday, October 6, 2023