FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 24th, 2023, through Monday, June 26th, 2023
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the mid-high Moderate range to USG range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: ‘Tis a busy day for Michigan air quality today, June 24th. There is currently an Air Quality Alert for Ozone for west portions of the state along the Lake Michigan shoreline. There is also an Air Quality Alert for PM-2.5 across the entire Upper Peninsula.
For Ozone, a dirty airmass will persist through the day today over Lake Michigan and will be blown ashore through a relatively strong lake breeze. Overall light winds will allow for this lake breeze to set up and persist for a couple hours. Today will also be one of the warmer days of the year with clear skies in the impacted areas, so there will be a rather conducive environment for Ozone to develop. For PM-2.5, wildfires in Ontario, Canada will impact the Upper Peninsula today and a little into the early morning hours tomorrow. The Seney monitor in the Upper Peninsula hit USG for a PM-2.5 24-hour average yesterday, and those values are expected to persist through today. Both the HRRR and RAP smoke models have a rather large plume expected to reach the Upper Peninsula this afternoon and will hang around for the remainder of the day. Some of the smoke may drift southward into the northern Lower Peninsula, but those concentrations will be short-lived and should only reach the Moderate range.
We get relief from the poor air quality tomorrow as a Low-Pressure and frontal boundary eclipse our state throughout the day. Rain is in the forecast for the majority of the state, along with shifting winds. Both the rain and changing of wind direction will help clean out the airmass and bump us back to Good air quality. These conditions last through Monday as rain hangs around into the start of next week.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Rain and clouds hang around the area to start next week, so overall air quality will be Good.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Saturday, June 24, 2023
Next Forecast Update: Monday, June 26, 2023