FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday June 27th, 2023, through Wednesday June 28th, 2023
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Hazy skies blanket the state of Michigan today, Tuesday, as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to impact the region. PM-2.5 concentrations across the state are even higher than the values we saw earlier this month with our first round of PM-2.5 Air Quality Alerts. The smoke and associated PM-2.5 concentrations will persist through the day today with heavier plumes potentially mixing in this afternoon. These plumes will be coming in waves, so it is possible to see concentrations decreasing for an hour or two, then increasing; it may be a back-and-forth scenario with concentrations. We currently have numerous monitors in the Very Unhealthy range for PM-2.5, mainly on the west side of the state. Due to this, the forecast for those areas is being upgraded from USG to Unhealthy for those areas for a 24-hour PM-2.5 average. Those Very Unhealthy concentrations may drift eastward towards the metro Detroit area later this evening before decreasing overnight.
NOAA guidance and multiple models have the smoke hanging around through tomorrow, Wednesday. Once the current Low-pressure exits the area, two High-pressures, north and south of us, set up and essentially reverse the winds bringing some of the smoke back with it. The majority of the smoke looks to remain in the lower peninsula, but due to how this smoke has been behaving this year and the current fire situation, we are extending the Statewide Air Quality Alert through tomorrow, Wednesday. This forecast will be updated tomorrow morning to reassess the smoke situation and to turn our heads to Ozone, as that may be an issue later this week.
EXTENDED FORECAST: High-pressure sets up to our north and south, reversing the winds to southerly and providing warmer air. Wildfire smoke may still be an issue and Ozone looks to make an appearance later this week.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Monday, June 27, 2023
Next Forecast Update: Wednesday June 28th, 2023