FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday June 29th, 2023, through Friday June 30th, 2023
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate to USG range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the USG to Unhealthy range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Another day in Michigan, another Air Quality Alert. As we continue the PM-2.5 alert we also add an Ozone Air Quality Alert for portions of southeast Michigan and west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Some models have been somewhat useful during this event for PM-2.5, while other models do not show or suggest any PM-2.5 concentrations over us, which of course, is not the case. NOAA guidance has PM-2.5 concentrations over the state of Michigan through at least Saturday, so this is why this forecast is being taken day-by-day. Winds today will be mainly southerly, which is the driving component of smoke hanging around and returning to our area. There are currently region-wide alerts due to this smoke with current PM-2.5 concentrations looking to persist for the time being as we await a true airmass change which will clean out the area. Again, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to fluctuate throughout each day, so a few hours may have improved air quality, but others may return to Unhealthy levels.
On top of the presence of smoke, Ozone will make an appearance in southeast Michigan and west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. It is suspected that the current PM-2.5 concentrations will be adding enough precursors to the environment and enabling Ozone to develop even though there is a thick plume over Michigan blocking out some of the sun. Enough of the sun’s radiation will make it to the Earth’s surface to interact with Ozone precursors. Also, as we typically see, Ozone will develop over Lake Michigan and be blown ashore as we expect SSW winds tomorrow, Friday. For most of the day tomorrow, clouds will be present but scattered and broken so the sun will be shining in areas that will be impacted by Ozone. On top of this, surface temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s in west and southeast Michigan aiding in the development of Ozone.
EXTENDED FORECAST: This current airmass remains in place for the time being. Air quality is expected to remain poor until we receive a good cleanout from a strong front and complete change in wind direction. As such, this forecast will be updated daily.
Next Forecast Update: Friday June 30th, 2023