FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 17th, 2023, through Friday July 21st, 2023
PM-2.5:PM-2.5 concentrations will range from Moderate to USG to start off the week before declining more into the Moderate range.
OZONE:Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.
PM-2.5 Air Quality Action Day Advisory for Monday, July 17th, 2023
The Action Day Advisory for Monday, July 17th is for the following counties in the central and southern portions of the Lower Peninsula:
Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Oceana, Newaygo, Mecosta, Isabella, Midland, Bay, Huron, Muskegon, Montcalm, Gratiot, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Clinton, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Wayne, Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Today, Monday, is an Air Quality Action Day for portions of the central and southern Lower Peninsula due to PM-2.5 concentrations hanging around from Canadian wildfire smoke. These concentrations are expected to move off to the east as the day carries on with overall PM-2.5 values expected to remain below the alert threshold through the work week. To start off the week, we see surface temperatures scattered throughout the 70s with some 80s in the southern areas with mainly westerly winds flowing through the region. This trend continues as we go into Tuesday with a High-pressure system sliding into areas to the north, which will shift winds to a more southerly direction through Wednesday. Wednesday going into Thursday is expected to bring us a frontal boundary and associated cold front with a chance of rain showers. This system exits the area rather quickly but not without dropping temperatures back into the 70s for Friday.
As mentioned above, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to diminish as the work week carries on, with no real threat of returning wildfire smoke for the foreseeable future. Since smoke models only forecast out a couple of days, we will keep an eye on updated model runs and will make updates to the forecast as needed if any alert-able smoke is looking to impact the state. Ozone does not look to be a threat this week as westerly winds and temperatures predominantly in the low-80s keep Ozone concentrations at bay. There may be an uptick in concentrations on Wednesday, but widespread Ozone issues are not expected. The airmass change and chance of rain on Thursday will help clean out any concentration buildup of both PM-2.5 and Ozone.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast looks relatively similar to this week’s forecast with temperatures in the 70s and low-80s with mainly westerly winds. Overall air quality will be in the Good to Moderate range.
Next Forecast update: Friday July 21st, 2023. Forecast updated by Alec Knowacki.