FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 18, 2023, through Monday, August 21, 2023
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good to Moderate.
OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Over the past few days, the smoke models have been painting an ugly picture of poor Air Quality over Minnesota and Wisconsin with Michigan eventually to follow. Fortunately, the smoke has stayed aloft, and surface smoke has not gotten any worse than High Moderate on the western side of the Lake. Even though one model continues to predict dire surface concentrations, the remaining models have backed off and are more in line with what we are actually seeing on the ground. Those models are now predicting no worse than Moderate and that that will be pushed out in the next couple of days. As such, the Michigan PM-2.5 AQI forecast will be kept in the Moderate range until it clears out.
Even though we are expecting a nice warmup over the weekend, ozone looks to behave. Cooler Friday temperatures will give way to warmer 80-degree weather during Saturday and Sunday under clear skies. One of the ozone models is showing an ozone buildup over the southern tip of Lake Michigan on Sunday, but it is standing alone in that prediction compared with other models.
At this point, it looks safe to continue this forecast through the weekend with Monday as the next update. However, the conditions will be monitored over the weekend and if the smoke aloft starts mixing down over Michigan or ozone numbers start to creep up, the forecast will be updated as necessary.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be generally Good to Moderate to start the next work week.
Next Forecast update: Monday, August 21st, 2023. Forecast updated by Jim Haywood