FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 28, 2023, through Friday, September 1st, 2023
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: The beautiful weekend spills over into the start of the work week with today, Monday, seeing clear, blue skies and temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as a frontal boundary crosses over the state throughout the day on Tuesday; bringing cloudy skies and rain to most areas. However, we rebound rather quickly as Wednesday sees clear skies, but temperatures barely move out of the 60s due to northerly flow over the region. We slowly warm up on Thursday, as winds start to shift to more easterly flow as a High-pressure system sets up over the state. On Friday, winds shift to predominantly southerly, with some westerly component, which will bring in warmer temperatures into the 80s for most of Michigan.
In terms of air quality, due to unfavorable wind directions for Ozone development, it is not expected that Ozone will be an issue week. Also, with the cooler temperatures, Ozone will not have the proper ingredients to produce, even though there will be ample sunlight. There may be an hourly concentration, or two, in the Moderate range, but overall Ozone averages should be in the Good range. For PM-2.5, wildfire smoke is continually being monitored. For the coming days, it is not projected that wildfire smoke will cause PM-2.5 to rise higher than low-Moderate. In some smoke models, there appears to be some smoke coming down from Canada to our west over Minnesota, but the models appear to keep it west of us. As always, wildfire smoke and updated models will be monitored daily.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Going into the Labor Day holiday weekend, we see quite the warmup as winds shift to southwesterly flow, and a similar heat dome that we saw last week in the central part of the country looks to set up again. These warm temperatures and favorable winds may produce Ozone issues, but will be looked at more closely as the weekend gets closer.
Next Forecast Update: Friday, September 1st, 2023