FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, July 31st, 2022 through Monday August 1st, 2022
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate range tomorrow.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Another beautiful weekend in the Mitten State as we have been experiencing relatively clear skies and low-80s for surface temperatures. Today, Sunday, continues the trend with surface temperatures in the low 80s, light winds and scattered clouds. A change in the forecast comes tomorrow, Monday, as a Low-pressure and associated cold front makes its way through the region. Rain chances remain predominantly in the morning hours with sunny skies returning in the afternoon for some areas in Michigan. With the frontal system, surface temperatures decrease slightly due to a wind shift to more west-northwesterly flow.
In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 remains the same as last week. Regional concentrations will increase in the morning hours due to light winds but will diminish as winds increase throughout the day. For Ozone, initially there were conditions in place for a conducive environment for Ozone growth tomorrow, Monday, but with updated models and forecasts, that does not look like the case. As stated above, morning clouds and potential rain help to clean out any Ozone buildup over the weekend, and also inhibits morning growth due to cloudy conditions. The skies clear in the afternoon, but that is right around when the frontal boundary passes through and shifts winds to the WNW, which is not ideal for Ozone development. It is for these reasons we predict Ozone to be in the Moderate range for the majority of Michigan tomorrow. There will some areas in southwest Michigan that may see concentrations in the high Moderate range, but overall 8-hour averages should remain in the low-mid Moderates.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Rain chances return Wednesday evening with the latter half of the week in the low 80s with chances of rain as well. Air quality for this week should remain in the Good to Moderate range.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Sunday July 31st, 2022
Next Forecast update: Monday August 1st, 2022