FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 3rd, 2022, through Friday October 7th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will mostly be in the Good range for the forecast period with some possible low-Moderate concentrations near the middle of the period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations will range from Good to Moderate for this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some areas around Michigan woke up to frost and fog this Monday morning as stagnant conditions remain in place. Regional high-pressure will stick around the Midwest until Thursday when a low-pressure system and associated cold front traverses through the region. The beginning half of the week will remain dry and relatively sunny thanks to the aforementioned high-pressure, with surface temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s. These temperatures are aided by clear skies and SSW winds. Once the low-pressure comes through on Thursday late-morning, temperatures will start to drop with Friday surface temperatures only reaching the upper 40s mostly due to NNW winds and overcast skies. Along with cooler temperatures, rain may accompany the overcast skies throughout Michigan.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will be Good this week with possible hourly values in the Moderate range. As mentioned above, SSW winds and sunny skies will allow for some Ozone development to occur. These concentrations quickly dissipate as the low-pressure and cold front come through the region in the latter half of the week. For PM-2.5, stagnant atmospheric conditions in the beginning half of the week will allow for particulate matter to accrue in the morning hours. Concentrations will diminish with the help of light winds throughout the day, but there may be some Moderate concentrations for a couple hours each day. Smoke models show the possibility of smoke being present in the region this week but should not pose any threat for large quantities of concentrations. Overall, 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good with the possibility of a few low-Moderates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Cooler temperatures stick around through the weekend with surface temperatures in the 50s with the return of high-pressure to our south. Overall air quality should remain Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Friday, October 7th, 2022