FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday October 7th, 2022, through Monday October 10th, 2022
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range for the forecast period.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Earlier in the week, Michigan was riddled with atmospheric inversions which essentially “capped” the ability for vertical movement in the atmosphere. This caused numerous mornings to have moderate to USG-level PM-2.5 concentrations. The concentrations only last for a few hours until winds picked up in the early afternoon, but it is worth noting the cause of the high concentrations. For this weekend, Michigan will start out cooler than we were this past week thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cold front that traversed the region Thursday evening. There may be some leftover lake-effect rain showers up and down the coast of Michigan throughout the day Friday, but this gives way to a high-pressure system to our west. Saturday warms up slightly with more surface temperatures in the low-50s mainly due to westerly flow. Sunday continues the trend of slight warming with some surface temperatures reaching the low-60s with WNW winds. There appears to be a weak frontal boundary setting up to pass through Sunday, but this will not cause any disturbances to the forecasted surface temperatures and relative sunshine. Once the frontal boundary passes, a high-pressure sets up over us providing ample sunshine and light winds.
In terms of air quality, Ozone continues to be a non-issue due to seasonally cooler temperatures and lack of strong sunlight that we typically see in the early-to-mid summer months. As stated above, PM-2.5 concentrations were interesting this week due to stagnant conditions from atmospheric inversions in the morning hours. This weekend does not look like it will have those same morning hour high concentrations as light surface winds will be prominent through each day, but there may be some low-Moderates hanging around for a few hours. These concentrations will be cleaned out with the passing of the weak frontal boundary Sunday evening.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
The week starts out with high-pressure over the region providing Good air quality.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki
Next forecast update: Monday, October 10th, 2022