FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 19, 2024, through Friday, August 23, 2024
OZONE:
8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Good (Green AQI) through Thursday, then levels could increase towards Moderate (Yellow AQI).
PM-2.5:
24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Wildfire smoke moved into the state this past weekend; however, impacts at the surface have not resulted in hourly concentrations of PM2.5 higher than the low to middle Moderate range, and daily averages have ranged from upper Good to low Moderate. High pressure builds in over the next few days producing winds from the north to northeast. This flow will push the smoke south and west of the region, and Good PM2.5 concentrations should return to the state on Monday, continuing through midweek.
This week, the high-pressure area dominates, bringing in cooler air from Canada. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated, but cooler surface and upper-level temperatures will hamper any ozone development. Ozone concentrations through Thursday should remain in the Good range. Southerly winds move back over the state by Friday as the high pressure tracks east of the state. This southerly flow brings in warmer air, along with the threat of increases in pollution levels. Either ozone and/or PM2.5 may increase back towards the Moderate range on Friday, but the threat of higher levels should hold off until the weekend.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show a warmup towards the end of the week with dry conditions. Increases in pollution levels may be experienced during the coming weekend. Expected pollution levels during the coming weekend will be detailed in the Friday update.
Next Forecast Update: Friday, August 23, 2024