FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, august 26, 2024 through Friday, August 30, 2024
OZONE:
8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI) on Monday, but levels Tuesday could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range in parts of southwest Michigan. Reading Wednesday and the rest of the week should range between Moderate and Good (Green AQI).
PM-2.5:
24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Warm, muggy conditions start this week with storms that will be scattered in nature on Monday. On Tuesday, precipitation will be more prevalent across the middle and central portions of the state during the morning and early afternoon hours. More sunshine is expected further south, especially in the southwest portion of the state. The sunshine, coupled with warm, muggy conditions and a southwest-to-westerly flow, will assist in the development of ozone. With the increased threat of ozone development, we have decided to issue an Air Quality Advisory from Muskegon to Grand Rapids, then south to the state border. There is a small chance a monitor may reach the USG range in the southeast as well but based on the evaluation of weather models on Monday morning, more cloud cover should help keep readings from reaching higher than the Moderate range.
There is some uncertainty about the placement of a frontal boundary moving in on Wednesday. Currently, it looks to stall over the region for a day, and more clouds and chances for precipitation by mid-week should hamper ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. If our thoughts on the expected pollution levels change, we will update this forecast. Ozone concentrations from Wednesday through Friday should range from the upper Good to the middle Moderate range.
The current weather setup has also been keeping PM2.5 levels mostly Moderate across the state. Levels will continue to range generally Moderate until we have a good change in airmass, which likely won’t come until the end of the week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show cooler conditions as we approach the coming Labor Day weekend. At this time, increased pollution levels are not anticipated.
Next Forecast Update: Friday, August 30, 2024