FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, December 28, 2023, through Tuesday, January 2, 2024
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
This forecast constitutes my last forecast for 2023. As I type 2024 for this first time, I look back on the 2023 Air Quality year-in-review. I know that this year will be one that we will all remember for a very long time. The widespread Canadian wildfires during June gave us PM-2.5 concentrations never seen in the history of Michigan air pollution forecasting and monitoring. Concentrations of wildfire smoke pushed our AQI into the Unhealthy range and persisted for days. We issued state-wide Air Quality Advisories for the first time in our program’s history. Also, for the first time, we issued dual advisories for both ozone and fine particulates.
Even though I believe we met the crisis head-on and addressed all news media requests, after the smoke departed, we met internally with our media department and outreach groups to discuss how we can better reach and inform the public if similar dangerous events should occur again.
Fortunately, the remainder of 2023 saw an average number of elevated ozone days with no additional wildfire spikes after the June episodes.
A potentially historically strong El Niño is currently giving us above normal temperatures and drier conditions for winter. This is predicted to persist through the northern hemisphere throughout the winter. We will see if that holds true…
As we enter the New Year’s weekend, our current Air Quality is Good as temperatures continue above normal. Rain showers will eventually end on Friday and give us a drier day during Saturday. Precipitation chances ramp back up during Saturday night. Temperature forecasts indicate a rain/snow mix should be the worst although overnight temperatures could dip below freezing causing some slippery road conditions at night. Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good with a few isolated Low Moderates throughout the weekend.
Be careful and Happy New Year from your EGLE forecasters!
EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate following the holiday weekend.
Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, January 2, 2024