FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 8, 2024, through Friday, January 12, 2024
PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range mostly Good through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Weather conditions Monday will be relatively calm with cloudy skies and reasonable temperatures; however, a change is quickly approaching with two winter storms expected this week. The first spreads snow from southwest to northeast, starting late Monday into early Tuesday. The highest snow accumulation with this storm is expected further north, while less accumulation is expected further south due to warmer air wrapping in, changing snow to rain. A weak system keeps mainly snow in the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday, but a second stronger storm moves in from the southwest late Thursday into Friday. The current track of this storm keeps us on the cool side of the system, with accumulating snow a good possibility late in the week.
Hourly fine particulate readings Monday morning have been Moderate due to weaker winds and increased surface moisture. As the storm system approaches, wind speeds are forecast to increase from the south/southeast late Monday, which should improve hourly readings; however, daily averages of fine particulate Mondays will likely range from low to middle Moderate. Improvements in fine particulate can be expected Tuesday due to stronger, gusty winds changing to the northeast, then northwest as the storm pulls away. A weak system moves late Wednesday, continuing the active weather pattern and hampering any significant increase in pollution levels. While a few hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter in the low-Moderate range may be seen Wednesday or Thursday, daily averages should remain in the Good range. Strong east/southeast winds develop Friday ahead of the late-week storm. Fine particulate levels at that time should remain mostly Good.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show artic air moving in on a strong northwest flow this coming weekend. The expected conditions would keep snow in the forecast, and air quality would average Good across the state.
Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 12, 2024