FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 13, 2024, through friday, February 16, 2024
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Seasonal normal temperatures have returned to the Great Lakes with upper-20 to mid-30s expected throughout this week. Although temperatures have decreased from last week’s record high temperatures, the sun will be more present this week than it was for the majority of January. Today, Tuesday, and Wednesday will have High-pressure in place which will provide ample sunlight. These High-pressure systems remain in place until Thursday morning when a Low-pressure system treks through the region from the southwest. Accompanying the Low-pressure will be an associated cold front and moisture from the south which will aid in producing snowfall for much of Michigan. North of the I-69 corridor will have the highest snowfall amounts with expected snowfall accumulation in the three-to-five-inch range with some higher accumulations locally. This system will be rather quick-moving, so snowfall will mainly take place during the day on Thursday and the entire system will be over the east coast by Friday morning. Friday will have leftover snowfall with less accumulation for the interior areas, and lake-effect snow for shoreline communities.
For PM-2.5, with the current High-pressure regime, expect Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations in the morning hours when winds are light and atmospheric inversions are possible. The atmospheric inversions should dissipate throughout the day, allowing for the dispersion of pollutants being trapped near the surface. During these inversions, and morning commutes, it is possible for PM-2.5 concentrations to eclipse the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups threshold for an hour or two. Moderate is forecasted, however, due to the expected 24-hour average being in the Good to Moderate range. Due to the system coming through on Thursday, any buildup of concentrations will be cleaned out, moving us back into a consistent Good-range regime.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with surface highs in the 20s. Northerly winds will help in providing us Good air quality into the next week.
Next Forecast Update: Friday January 16th, 2024