FORECAST SUMMARY:monday, March 4, 2024 through March 8, 2024
PM-2.5: concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Low-Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: The start of the first week of March feels more so like the end of May as surface temperatures range from the upper-50s to low-70s across Michigan today, Monday. These warm temperatures are short-lived as a Low-pressure system and associated cold front moves through Tuesday throughout the day bringing rain for southern Michigan and a wintry mix for northern Michigan. The pressure system switches the winds to more northerly for midweek on Wednesday, so surface temperatures hang around the 30s to 40s with some breezy conditions in place. Warmer temperatures look to return on Thursday with the help of southerly flow with surface temperatures in the upper-40s to low-50s. Yet another system comes through on Friday and into Saturday which will bring more mixed precipitation and drop temperatures back into seasonal norms.
For air quality, today, Monday will see the highest chance of Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations throughout the state due to southerly flow and warmer temperatures. As the system rolls through on Tuesday, breezy conditions will help clean out the airmass and the wind direction switch to the north will help keep the airmass clean. Midweek, as winds switch back to southerly, PM-2.5 concentrations may increase in the urban areas, but nothing too alarming. The system on Friday and Saturday will help clean out the airmass once again and provide us Good air quality to start off the weekend.
As Jim stated on last week’s forecast update, it is now officially Ozone season. However, we will not start forecasting Ozone until April 1st as the overall environment is not yet conducive for Ozone development.
Officially, ozone season begins today (March 1) in terms of monitoring. Similar to previous years, our forecast season for ozone will begin on April 1 as our cooler weather and shorter days keeps ozone risk at a minimum during March.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
As stated above, we start off the weekend with Good air quality thanks to a Low-pressure system which will drop temperatures back into seasonal norms. These temperatures will also carry into early next week.
Next Forecast, March 8, 2024