FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 11, 2024, through Friday, March 15, 2024
PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: After a cool weekend with Good air quality, temperatures warm up through mid-week thanks to high pressure positioned south of the state and a warm front lifting into the northern portion of the Great Lakes region. Southwesterly winds develop Monday into Tuesday, ushering in warmer air. The forementioned boundary sinks south, becoming positioned between the central and southern portions of the state on Wednesday. Precipitation comes into the forecast starting Wednesday, but by Thursday, a low-pressure area moves in along this boundary from the southwest, enhancing precipitation. During this period, more widespread showers, along with some storms, can be expected. Northeasterly winds develop Friday as the low pulls away, bringing cooler temperatures back over the region.
As for air quality, above normal temperatures on a southerly wind may allow for fine particulate to increase into the Moderate range through Thursday; therefore, a mix of upper Good to low-Moderate concentrations is expected statewide. Smoke plume forecast maps were evaluated and show a light plume coming up from the southern Plain states on Tuesday; however, at this time, the plume does not appear to influence fine particulate concentration. The cooler northerly flow will bring levels back to the Good range on Friday.
While we are not officially forecasting for ozone this early in the season, it's worth mentioning that depending on the amount of sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday, the warmer temperatures on the southwesterly wind may also allow for some low-Moderate 8-hour ozone concentrations; however, this would be isolated, and most locations will remain Good.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show dry conditions for late in the week, but another storm system is dropping in from the northwest towards the end of the weekend. Mostly Good fine particulate levels are expected during this period.
Next Forecast, March 15, 2024