FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 31st, 2022, through Monday, November 7th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Monday is the last day in October which means its Halloween, but it also marks the last day of forecasting ozone for the 2022 season. Cloudy and damp conditions are currently in place across the southern half of the state where scattered showers are possible Monday. After the current system passes through, high pressure moves in with dry and warmer than normal temperatures expected. The next chance for precipitation comes Friday in the northwest as a boundary approaches from the west.
As for air quality, being later in the season, ozone will remain Good, and as stated above, this will be the last ozone forecast until spring of 2023. Fine particulate has been averaging Moderate across much of the state Monday, and moisture associated with the system moving across southeastern areas will keep Moderate readings across lower Michigan. High pressure builds in for the next few days keeping winds on the lighter side. Without a decent wind shift from the Monday system, fine particulate lingering in the Moderate range is likely, especially in southern more urban locations. The anticipated fine particulate range the rest of the workweek will be from upper Good to middle Moderate.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show wind speeds picking up from the south later in the period. There is some uncertainty on the timing of a cold front passing the state later in the weekend. Warmer conditions continue and unless a boundary moves through producing an airmass change, we expect fine particulate to remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.
Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach
Next forecast update: Monday, November 7th, 2022