FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 21st, 2022, through Monday, November 28th, 2022
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Moderate this forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Quite weather conditions are in store early this week, but after the snowfall from last week and this past weekend you can expect a climb in fine particulate levels thanks to warmer air/winds flowing over the snowpack. This fine particulate increase is typical after a snowfall when snow then melts creating increased surface moisture over the region. Stronger winds Monday should help levels stay in the Good to low Moderate range; however, as weak high pressure settles in through mid-week producing lighter winds, fine particulate will continue increasing. While hourly concentrations, mostly in the early to late-morning, may reach USG we anticipate daily averages to stay in the middle to upper Moderate range through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to pass later Thanksgiving (Thursday) which should help clear out some of the build-up by Friday. If fine particulate levels increase faster than anticipated where we feel an Action Day is warranted, then this forecast will be updated.
Aside from chances for precipitation late on Thanksgiving into Friday, quite conditions are anticipated. Current forecast models are keeping the next weather system south of the state and over the Ohio valley this coming weekend. If this storm tracks further north, then precipitation could reach lower Michigan Sunday. Temperatures through this period look to be mild for this time of year and lighter winds will be in place, especially Saturday into early Sunday. Because of this, daily Moderate fine particulate will continue over much of the state.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show a wind shift to the north as the weekend system moves east of the region. If this storm track pans out, fine particulate should improve early next week, but if this shift does not occur, generally Moderate levels will continue.
Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach
Next forecast update: Monday, November 28, 2022