FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 5th, 2023, through Wednesday, June 7th, 2023
OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.
PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the mid-high Moderate range with the possibility of hourly USG concentrations.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Last week saw multiple rounds of air quality alerts due to elevated levels of Ozone for much of Michigan, and even an air quality alert for fine particulate (PM-2.5) for the Upper Peninsula over the weekend. We catch a break this week as temperatures return to relative seasonal norms and winds shift to northerly flow.
To kick off the change in airmass is a cold front traversing the region throughout the day today, Monday, which may produce precipitation in areas. This will shift winds predominantly to northerly flow before becoming more northwesterly as Tuesday carries on and lasts through Wednesday. Due to the changes in winds, surface temperatures decrease slightly to the low-mid 80s for the lower peninsula. After today, upper-level temperatures, which help in the development of Ozone, decrease into the single digits Celsius for much of Michigan with upper-level winds coming from the north as well.
Air quality for the beginning half of the week will be interesting, especially for PM-2.5. Wildfire smoke from Canada is continuing to influence our area with the Seney monitor in the Upper Peninsula hanging around the USG threshold. According to the HRRR and RAP smoke models, near-surface smoke will hang around the area for the majority of today before leaving the area with help from the cold front expected this evening. This smoke will move south as the day carries on, so hazy skies and the possibility of smelling smoke are expected. Tomorrow, Tuesday, will more than likely have leftover PM-2.5 concentrations but should be less than what has been seen the past few days. Since these smoke models only forecast out for a day at a time, the forecast will be updated on Wednesday as wildfire smoke will still be up north in Canada. For Ozone, the cooler surface and upper-level temperatures cut off the production of Ozone, along with the northerly winds. However, sunlight throughout the day may push Ozone concentrations into the Moderate range, especially in populated areas, so Ozone will be in the Good to Moderate range through Wednesday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Winds stay northerly midweek with the majority of surface temperatures in the 70s, so Ozone should not be an issue. As stated above though, PM-2.5 concentrations will be reevaluated on Wednesday with an updated forecast.
Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Monday, June 5th, 2023
Next Forecast update: Wednesday, June 7th, 2023