FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 10th, 2023, through Monday, June 12th, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the mid-high Moderate range

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to mid-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start off this morning with all Air Quality Alerts being discontinued and some monitors just below the USG threshold for PM-2.5. We will see this throughout the day today with some hourly concentrations spiking into the USG range before falling back into Moderate. More specifically, the mid-morning hours may see increased PM-2.5 concentrations mainly from morning commutes, albeit Saturday, the atmosphere is currently sensitive to particulate matter so any additional source of particulate matter will be noticeable. Winds start to increase as the morning carries on and shifts to a more WSW direction which will help our PM-2.5 situation by decreasing values and keeping additional wildfire smoke from entering our region. The approaching Low-pressure system and cold front will also help us out in this regard.

Shifting gears to Ozone, today, Saturday, may see an increase in Ozone in west and southwest Michigan due to winds coming from the SW. This will blow pollutants sitting over Lake Michigan into the WSW Michigan areas. No widespread issues with Ozone are expected, except for the occasional hourly USG reading. Overall, the 8-hour average for Ozone should be in the Moderate range as surface temperatures will be in the low-80s, upper-level temperatures in the low teens, and there will be a lingering layer of upper atmospheric smoke which will block some of the sun’s radiation.

Going into Sunday, the cold front will bring in off and on precipitation in the morning hours and throughout the day. Due to the frontal boundary coming down from the NW, sinking air behind the front may mix down wildfire smoke as it traverses the area. So, tomorrow, Sunday, may see increased hourly concentrations of PM-2.5, but overall averages should be in the Moderate range. The cold front will also noticeably drop temperatures into the 50s and 60s throughout Michigan with a true warmup not returning until Wednesday next week. Monday will continue the trend of cooler temperatures with winds shifting back to more NNW flow.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A cooler start to the week is upon us, with winds shifting to more northerly again. We will keep an eye on the Ontario fires over the coming days to see if these northerly winds will bring wildfire smoke back to our area.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki: Saturday, June 10th, 2023

Next Forecast update: Monday, June 12th, 2023