FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 12, 2023, through Friday, June 16, 2023
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.
OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with the potential for scattered Moderate during the periods with calm winds
FORECAST DISCUSSION: The first week saw a weeklong episode of high ozone through much of the Lower Peninsula, which was unlike our usual one or two day periods of elevated ozone.
The second week was unprecedented with extreme smoke from Canadian wildfires causing a week of fine particulate advisories and alerts. Unseasonably dry weather combined with persistent northerly wind flow brought wildfire smoke down over much of the Midwest and Eastern Coast.
While we occasionally had a monitor or two briefly cross into the Low Unhealthy category, our monitors mostly stayed in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) category. That means the portion of the population with pre-existing respiratory ailments were the most at risk. Since most everyone could see, and sometimes smell, the smokey haziness in the air, we recommended limiting strenuous outdoor activities for everyone in our Air Action Advisories and Alerts areas.
Fortunately, we should return to normal Air Quality conditions this week. The rains and shifting winds which occurred, during Sunday, pushed the worst of the smoke out of the State. The Ontario fire warning system is now indicating no new fires in the areas north of us and has downgraded the fire alert status to “Low”. Cooler temperatures and favorable winds should also keep ozone in check. The smoke models are indicating some smoke from western states and provinces entering the MN/WI area on Wednesday. But should that smoke reach us, it should be elevated into the upper atmosphere and not be an issue for breathable air.
We are expecting a bit cooler than normal weather to start this week. An upper-level low will provide clouds and scattered showers through Tuesday. A warmup should start on Wednesday, but high temperatures should stay in a comfortable range. The best chance to reach Moderate will be when the winds slack off under sunny skies and some localized stagnation could occur.
Since we are not expecting any Air Quality issues in the next few days, this forecast will be updated on Friday provide the weekend outlook. But if conditions change quickly, like we saw last week, this forecast will be upgraded as necessary.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to Moderate going into the weekend.
Forecast updated by: Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 12, 2023
Next Forecast update: Friday, June 16, 2023