FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 16, 2023, through Sunday, June 18, 2023
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Moderate through the forecast period.
OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good increasing to Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Last week, Michigan experienced elevated smoke concentrations due to wildfires northeast of Sault Ste. Marie. With northerly winds and only 300 miles to travel before hitting southern Michigan counties, there was no time for smoke to dissipate. As such, we experienced some of the highest smoke readings in the history of fine particulate air monitoring, in Michigan, and we issued our first ever Action Day advisories for fine particulates.
This week, surface smoke has receded as those fires have mostly diminished, but we have been keeping our eyes on large wildfires in the Alberta Province. Smoke from those fires impacted Minnesota heavily and Wisconsin to a smaller extent. Fortunately for Michigan, that smoke was well elevated before it reached us, and our ground level concentrations stayed in the Good to Moderate range. Fortunately, the smoke models are indicating that the elevated smoke scenario should remain unchanged through the weekend.
Ozone was never far from our minds during the smoke episode. Looking at the upcoming weekend forecast, northerly winds will continue to keep our ozone concentrations in check under gradually clearing skies through Saturday. On Sunday, however, surface winds will shift to a southeasterly direction under sunny skies. Low dew points should keep ozone in check, but I do expect a creep in concentrations downwind from the Detroit area to the Flint area.
Currently, Monday is of larger concern to me. We will be under an easterly wind regime by Monday but, as we saw a couple weeks ago, that did not spare us elevated ozone. Temperatures will be increasing, and Monday’s high temperature could come close to 90 degrees under sunny skies and increasing humidity. As such, I plan to update this forecast, Sunday morning, while also tracking smoke plumes and looking for any unexpected changes throughout the weekend.
As far as rain in the forecast, the long-range models have Michigan under a high pressure dome through next week and into the next weekend, extending the current drought.
EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to Moderate going into the weekend.
Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Friday, June 16, 2023
Next Forecast update: Sunday, June 18, 2023