2/10/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 10th, 2020 through Friday, February 14th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Through midweek, expect generally quiet weather conditions. The next storm system brings snow back in the forecast later Wednesday into Thursday. Snows can be attributed to a storm system passing south of the state as a cold front drops in from the northwest. The front, which passes through on Thursday, originates from the arctic; therefore, expect cold air to usher in Friday. The arctic air will be short-lived as high pressure quickly builds in Saturday.

As for air quality, no long periods of stagnation develop this week; however, there are some periods of weaker winds. Fine particulate is expected to range from upper Good to low Moderate through Wednesday. With the cold, northerly wind developing Thursday into Friday, fine particulate will be Good as we end the workweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Saturday with possibly another storm system later Sunday into Monday. Fine particulate late in the forecast period should not reach higher than low to middle Moderate; however, with so much uncertainty with the weather forecast, we will be updating this forecast Friday to detail expected air quality levels through the Presidents Day Holiday.

Forecast update by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, February 10th, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, February 14th, 2020

2/3/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 3rd, 2020 through Monday, February 10th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good through the work week with the chance of Low Moderates during the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast week is expected to be mostly quiet and uneventful with temperatures slightly above normal.  The best chances for precipitation will be Monday night along with Wednesday night through Friday, although the levels of precipitation should be relatively light.

A weak low-pressure system, to our south will move east-northeast towards northern Ohio during Monday.  Winds will back from southwest to the northeast during the day, cleaning the atmosphere.  Winds favorable for clean Air Quality should persist through the work week providing Good conditions.  Long range forecasts have winds returning to the southwest, during the weekend, which could yield some Low Moderates. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, February 3rd, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 10th, 2020

01/27/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 27th, 2020 through Monday, February 3rd, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good with scattered Low Moderates at the end of the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast week is expected to be mostly quiet and uneventful.  There is very little chance for precipitation other than a few snow/rain showers Monday night and Thursday night.

Low clouds will hang on into Thursday when we should see some breaks in the clouds.

Winds patterns, during the week, will be Air Quality friendly with directions from the west, northwest, and east.  The best chance for any Low Moderates will come later in the work week when winds go mostly calm on Friday then south to southwest during the weekend.

Next week, there looks to be a warmup during the Monday/Tuesday time frame before colder air returns midweek that could yield Low Moderate conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 27th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 3rd, 2020

01/21/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 through Monday, January 27th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet conditions will persist through mid-week before a stacked low-pressure area brings precipitation in the forecast starting early Thursday. Any precipitation should be light; however, chances linger until early Saturday as the system slowly tracks west to east just south of the state. Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through much of the period. West winds Monday, back to the southwest/south Wednesday and Thursday, and then to the southeast/east Friday and Saturday as the low pulls away from the region.

As for air quality, no long periods of stagnation develop this week; however, neither will there be any strong wind shift to the north. Also, snow cover exists across much of the state which combined with warmer temperatures may allow for higher fine particulate concentrations. We expect fine particulate to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Saturday into Sunday, but another system is poised to drop in from the northwest Monday. Winds may be weaker ahead of and with the Monday disturbance; this will likely continue the trend of Good to middle Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, January 27th, 2020
Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division

01/13/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 13th, 2020 through Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good to Low Moderate until mid-week, then mostly Good through the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following a messy weekend with rain, sleet, snow and ice, a weak upper level disturbance will provide a bit more freezing precipitation through Monday morning. 

High pressure will work into the region Monday afternoon to bring dryer weather and somewhat warmer temperatures.  Southerly winds and warmer temperatures will provide a good opportunity to see a mix of Good to Low Moderate fine particulate readings, especially in the more urban areas. 

The next low pressure system is expected late Wednesday which could provide more mixed precipitation.  A wind shift will also occur providing cleaner air which would push our Air Quality back into the Good category. 

A bigger low pressure system is projected to impact the region starting late Friday and into Saturday.  This looks to have the potential to be significant precipitation event along albeit with continued Good Air Quality. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 13th, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

01/06/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 6th, 2020 through Monday, January 13th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good until early next week when values could range between Good and low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet weather Monday becomes more active as on and off systems move through the region. The first cold front passes Tuesday bringing in chances for snow; lake effect remains possible through Wednesday. High pressure moves in late Wednesday into early Thursday, but the next system brings precipitation back in the forecast Thursday afternoon/evening. Warmer southerly winds also develop Thursday ahead of the cold front. Precipitation should remain rain in central and southern areas with snow further north. The boundary positions itself south of the state Friday with a low-pressure area developing and riding northeast along the boundary Saturday. The system remains centered to our south/southeast; however, the precipitation extends north of the system into much of lower Michigan Saturday into early Sunday. As temperatures cool Saturday, any liquid precipitation should transition to snow.

As for air quality, no periods of stagnation develop this week and wind speeds are expected to keep the atmosphere well mixed. Generally Good air quality is anticipated, aside from a few early morning hourly readings of low Moderate, mostly in the southeast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in next Sunday, but the next system moves in from the west Monday. Winds may be weaker with the expected weather pattern which will likely allow for a mix of Good to low-Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, January 13th, 2020
Updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist

12/30/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 30th, 2019 through Monday, January 6th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good until the end of the work week, then a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The last forecast of 2019 starts with extremely wet weather but Good Air Quality.  This follows a Christmas week where Moderates persisted through most of the state.

Colder air will begin slipping in behind the rain, Monday afternoon, to give us messy, snowy conditions Monday night and Tuesday.  We will not have the same amount of winter problems experienced out west, but it will be messy enough.  On the positive side, we should have Good Air Quality.

The next warm-up is expected in the Thursday/Friday time slot.  Southerly winds will push temperatures back up into the 40’s but will also provide the potential for Low Moderate conditions.

The next front is expected Friday night, which will drop temperatures and clean out the atmosphere back into the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 30th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, January 6th, 2020

12/23/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 23rd, 2019 through Monday, December 30th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Low Moderate until the weekend, then Good conditions return.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Mild weather will continue through the Christmas week despite the passage of a weak cold front Monday afternoon.  The warmer, moist air over the colder ground has created a nice stable atmosphere for fine particulates to form and stay close to the ground.

High pressure will move over the region, during Tuesday, with southerly winds returning late in the day.  The continued warmer weather and moist conditions will keep the majority of the state in the Low Moderate range.

The current weather models are showing a front moving through the region around the Friday time frame, although confidence is somewhat shaky on the timing.  When the front does pass, northwest winds should clean the atmosphere and return conditions to the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 23rd, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, December 30th, 2019

12/16/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 16th, 2019 through Monday, December 23rd, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The coming week will be quiet for the most part weather wise as a larger storm system remains south across the Ohio River Valley Monday into Tuesday. A weak system could bring snow late Tuesday/Wednesday, and then high pressure builds east of the state past mid-week. This high remains east/southeast through the coming weekend. Temperatures are expected to be moderate during the weekend.

Weaker winds Monday could allow for some Moderate fine particulate, especially across the southern portion of the state. Northwesterly winds develop Tuesday and are reinforced Wednesday; expect mostly Good fine particulate. High pressure passes over-head Thursday and weaker winds, coupled with a likely morning inversion, will cause areas of Moderate fine particulate. Winds pickup in speed later in the week from the southwest. Stagnant conditions are not expected; however, southwesterly winds bringing in warmer temperatures which will keep a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models don’t show any significant storm systems through early next week. Warmer than normal temperatures and a southwesterly wind may allow for mostly Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 23rd, 2019
Forecast Updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

12/09/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 9th, 2019 through Monday, December 16th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a few Moderates later in the forecast week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following a cold front, Monday night, west to northwest winds will usher in cold, clean air providing Good Air Quality through mid-week.

As high pressure migrates eastward on Thursday, winds will become more south-southeast which could lead to some Low Moderates at the end of the work week.

Another frontal system is expected to pass during Saturday which would lead to another cleanout of the atmosphere. 

Fortunately, no big winter storms or Air Quality issues are expected through this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 9th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, December 16th, 2019

12/02/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 2nd, 2019 through Monday, December 9th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Clouds and scattered precipitation come to an end Monday as ridging builds in. Fine particulate Monday will average Good; however, weak winds late Monday/early Tuesday could cause some Moderate fine particulate Tuesday. A weak boundary brings northwesterly winds Wednesday, into Thursday which will allow for mostly Good fine particulate. Weaker winds ahead of the next boundary may bring scattered Moderates back in late Thursday into Friday.

High pressure builds in for the weekend, and warmer temperatures look to move in as well. Moderate fine particulate may be a bit more widespread Saturday into Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a stronger storm system affecting the region early next week. If the forecast pans out, any increase in fine particulate during the weekend will improve back to Good on Monday.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 9th, 2019
Forecast by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

11/25/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 25th, 2019 through Monday, December 2nd, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a few Moderates early in the forecast week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A mostly quiet holiday week can be expected, both in terms of weather and Air Quality.  The best chance of any Moderate fine particulates will be early in the work week when the temperatures are above freezing, and the ground is still relatively moist. 

We will see a low pressure center move across the upper Lower Peninsula during Wednesday.  On the back side of this low pressure system will be cold, brisk winds which will kick up large waves on the Lake Michigan shore along with the potential for lake effect snow showers.  Air Quality will be Good with these brisk northwest winds. 

Quiet weather should persist from Thanksgiving Day into the weekend with continued Good Air Quality.

The next weather system is anticipated later in the weekend with brisk, northwest winds ushering more cold, clean air by Sunday afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 25th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, December 2nd, 2019

11/18/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 18th, 2019 through Monday, November 25th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through mid-week then readings return to mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weak disturbances keep generally cloudy skies and small chances for light precipitation through Tuesday. High pressure builds in Wednesday, but a stronger system brings better chances for precipitation on Thursday. High pressure then moves back in with dry conditions for the end of the week.

As for air quality, weak winds and low-level moisture will produce mostly Moderate fine particulate through mid-week. Stronger winds late Wednesday and Thursday should improve levels with generally Good concentrations Thursday. Northerly winds Friday are expected to keep fine particulate in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure dominating much of the weekend with little, if any, chance for precipitation. Westerly/southwesterly winds will keep fine particulate in the upper Good to low Moderate range through early next week.

Next forecast update: Monday, November 25th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

11/12/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, November 12th, 2019 through Monday, November 18th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through midweek, then scattered Moderates are possible the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An arctic air-mass overhead Tuesday will cause record low maximum temperatures across much of the state. Cold northerly winds are producing lake effect snows in the most prone areas. These should taper off late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but a shortwave could bring more snow showers in the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure at the end of the week should keep conditions mostly dry; however, cooler than normal temperatures may linger.

As for air quality, stronger winds through Thursday should keep fine particulate mostly Good, but some hourly morning concentrations may reach Moderate. High pressure through most of the weekend will allow for lighter winds, and temperatures may be warm enough to see snowmelt. This will cause increased low-level moisture which could, in turn, allow for Moderate fine particulate concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The next weather system could bring precipitation back in the forecast by Sunday or Monday. Winds on the lighter side will allow for a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, November 18th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

11/04/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 4th, 2019 through Tuesday, November 12th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

On and off weather systems keep chances for rain and/or snow through the next week. The system moving in Wednesday looks to be cold and could drop an inch or two of snow across a portion of the state. Cold air in its wake could bring lake effect snow showers to the most prone areas on Thursday. Temperatures remain cold through the end of the week with highs struggling to reach the freezing decree mark by Friday. Another system brings in a cold front late Saturday, into Sunday. It’s a bit too early to tell if only snow will fall from this system; however, temperatures look to remain cool.

As for air quality, without a prolonged stagnant period, and with winds mostly from a northerly direction, fine particulate should stay Good through the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Cool northerly winds early next week and an upper level disturbance will keep precipitation in the forecast through the Veterans Day Holiday. Air Quality during the period should remain in the Good range.

Next forecast update: Tuesday, November 12th, 2019
Forecast by Stephanie M. Hengesbach

10/28/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 28th, 2019 through Monday, November 4th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be Good.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with only a few chances for low Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary slowly moves east through the state Monday bringing with it clouds and some precipitation. This boundary positions itself just south of the state the next few days and systems moving along it will keep precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will be cool enough by mid-week that some areas in the Lower Peninsula will see the first snowflakes of the season.

A stronger low rides along the boundary on Halloween with gusty northerly winds developing as the storm moves northeast. An upper level trough develops late in the week keeping temperatures cool and scattered precipitation (lake effect rain and/or snow) in the forecast through much of the weekend.

As for air quality, lighter winds early in the day may allow for a few hours of Moderate fine particulate through mid-week, but daily averages should remain mostly Good. Northerly winds much of the weekend will keep air quality Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a system possibly bringing scattered precipitation late Monday/early Tuesday. Southerly winds ahead of the system could allow for a few low Moderates Monday but generally Good air quality should prevail through early next week.

Forecast by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach
Next forecast update: Monday, November 4th, 2019

10/21/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 21st, 2019 through Monday, October 28th, 2019

Ozone:  8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After an extremely pleasant weekend with clear skies and Indian Summer temperatures, a strong October low pressure system will move through the region during Monday and affect our weather for the next two days.

Monday will see continued warmer temperatures but will experience rain showers in advance of a frontal passage Monday night.  Strong winds will accompany this system passage prompting wind advisories, especially in marine areas. This turbulent atmosphere will yield Good Air Quality.  Following winds behind the frontal system will be cooler and clean giving us continued Good Air Quality.

Quieter weather is on tap for the last half of the week although the models indicate a small Wednesday night system with accompanying scattered rain showers. 

Passing weekend high pressure will return winds to the southwest and moderate warming. Air Quality will be mostly Good with scattered Moderate particulate concentrations.  An anticipated Monday front will return northwest winds to the region.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, October 21st, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, October 28th, 2019

10/14/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 14th, 2019 through Monday, October 21st, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be Good.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with only a few chances for low Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure slides in Monday ending scattered lake effect showers across the northern portions of the state. Dry conditions will be short-lived, however, as a low-pressure area brings a cold front through late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Moisture lingers as cold air filters in keeping scattered showers in the forecast Wednesday. High pressure moves back in behind this system with dry conditions expected though the end of the workweek.

As for air quality, weather systems every other day will not allow for any extended period of stagnation, therefore, mostly Good air quality levels are expected through Friday. The only exception may be lighter winds early Friday, especially in the southeast, which may cause hourly Moderate fine particulate concentrations during the morning and early afternoon. Readings should improve to Good as winds pick up in speed during the afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weak system possibly bringing scattered precipitation Saturday, and a second system with better chances for precipitation coming in late Sunday/Monday. Warmer southerly winds may allow for some low Moderate fine particulate readings this weekend through early next week; however, ozone will be Good.

Next forecast update: Monday, October 21st, 2019

10/07/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 7th, 2019 through Monday, October 14th, 2019

Ozone: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

High pressure will move over the region, during Monday, and will influence our weather through Friday. Calm winds and clear skies will descend, Monday night, causing the coldest night of the week. A small threat of frost is even possible over the northern counties.

As the center of high pressure slowly moves eastward, winds on the back side will be persistently southeasterly. This will give us pleasant weather and seasonable temperatures through Friday. Air Quality should be mostly Good under this weather regime.

Things will drastically change Saturday after the passage of a strong cold front during Friday night. Daytime high temperature drops could be as much as 20 degrees between Friday and Saturday. The northwest winds behind the front will be very clean resulting in Good Air Quality through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, October 7th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, October 14th, 2019

09/30/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, September 30th, 2019 through Monday, October 7th, 2019

Ozone:  8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The last day of September began as a damp, foggy morning.  But by the time the first day of October arrives, a warm front will have passed through the state and temperatures will push into the low 80’s.  While warm enough to potentially sustain some ozone development, shorter days and mostly cloudy skies will be enough to keep Air Quality in the Good category. 

The cold front associated with this system will pass through Tuesday night and linger in the area through Thursday.  The entire system will be through the region Thursday and will set up the Midwest for below average temperatures through the weekend.  Although cooler than normal, sunny days should make for a nice weekend and Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 30th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, October 7th, 2019