6/8/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 8th, 2020 through Friday, June 12th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate with isolated USG during Monday and Tuesday, then Good to Low Moderate the remainder of the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday and Tuesday will be the most interesting days of this forecast period.  The week starts with strong upper ridging which will promote very warm to hot conditions today and Tuesday with plenty of sunshine. 

Long days with strong sun always get our attention in terms of Air Quality.  Fortunately, the position of approaching short-wave systems will align winds to the southeast.  That will spare the Lake Michigan counties since they will not pick up pollutants that might be out over Lake Michigan.  Which is good because those counties did see some USG levels last Tuesday.

The only real area of concern will be northwest of the Detroit area.  We could see some isolated USG readings around the Flint area but I do not expect it to be widespread.  As such, I do not think any advisors are warranted.

The first of two short-waves will pass late Tuesday.  Some pop-up convection could occur during the afternoon.  The second short-wave will pass late Wednesday afternoon will more opportunity for convective activity.  After the passage of the second-wave, winds will shift westerly and drop daily high temperatures to around 70.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good going into the weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 8th, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 12th, 2020

6/5/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 5th, 2020 through Monday, June 8th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations Friday will be mostly Moderate; levels will be mostly Good Saturday and Sunday with just a few Moderates possible; mostly Moderate levels return Monday with a chance for isolated USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary will produce scattered precipitation Friday as it moves through the region. Warmer temperatures and southwesterly winds ahead of the front may allow for some Moderate ozone and fine particulate. For the weekend, high pressure builds in creating dry conditions and comfortable temperature and humidity levels.

As for air quality Saturday and Sunday, plenty of sunshine both days can be expected. Cooler temperatures at the surface and upper levels, coupled with northeasterly winds turning southeasterly, should hamper significant increases in pollution. However, it does not take much to reach low Moderate for ozone this time of year, so we expect readings to range from upper Good to low Moderate. Fine particulate will be mostly Good with scattered low Moderates possible Sunday, generally in the southeast.

By Monday, high pressure is near the east coast and we return to warmer temperatures and southerly winds both at the surface and upper levels. We should be coming off a low background of ozone so at this time we feel ozone will not reach higher than Moderate. If our feelings on that change, we will update this forecast Sunday to detail expected increases in ozone. Fine particulate Monday will range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show increased temperatures continuing Tuesday and humidity levels will be on an increase as well. The big weather story will be the current tropical depression Cristobal moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Forecast models are showing its remnants moving north and into our region by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Forecaset Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, June 5th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 8th, 2020

6/1/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 1st, 2020 through Friday, June 5th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate to High Moderate on Tuesday, then mostly Good to Low Moderate for the middle and end of week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The best chance for any higher-than-normal ozone numbers will come on Tuesday as we get into a sector of warm, moist air in advance of a Tuesday night front.  The computer models are showing some elevated ozone numbers between Benton Harbor and Muskegon.  I do not think it will elevate into any widespread USG as we are starting with a clean air mass, on Monday, and a front will pass later Tuesday night.  That said, I do anticipate that we will see ample Moderates along the lake shore.  While it is possible that an isolated USG could occur, it does not yet rise to the level of issuing any air advisories.

The rest of the work week should stay in Good/Low Moderate range thus I am not anticipating a need for a daily forecast update unless conditions change.  However, since we are getting into that time of year where longer days and strong sun prevail, it will be a good idea to update the forecast on Friday for the weekend.  And, of course, if anything does change during the week, we will update this forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 1st, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 5th, 2020

5/26/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, May 26th, 2020 through Monday, June 1st, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good with scattered Low Moderates in urban areas.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Tuesday and Wednesday will be a replay of Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures and pop-up thunderstorms.  Southerly winds will guarantee moist air will continue to pump into the state increasing the likelihood of atmospheric instability and scattered heavy rain pockets in the afternoon and evening.

In terms of Air Quality, Low Moderates are quite likely for fine particulates in the southeast corner of the state and Moderate ozone is possible north and northwest of Detroit.  The likelihood of shower activities will peak on Thursday in advance of a strong cold front passage Thursday night.

Friday and the weekend look drier and much cooler with Saturday highs in the mid-60’s.  The threat of anything worse than Good Air Quality, during the weekend, is unlikely after the passage of Thursday’s front.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Low Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 26th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 1st, 2020

5/22/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, May 22nd, 2020 through Tuesday, May 26th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good with a few Moderates possible.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An upper level system in Ohio is keeping clouds across much of the state Friday with more in the way of sunshine in upper locations. Scattered light precipitation may also be seen in the south as the system pulls northeast. Southeasterly winds and clouds will keep air quality Good for both ozone and fine particulate.

Weak surface ridging builds in late Friday into Saturday ahead of the next system which brings storms in the forecast later Saturday through early Sunday. What will be most noted will be the increase in temperatures and humidity levels as the weekend progresses making it feel very summer-like. While the holiday weekend will not be a complete washout, upper level disturbances moving through will keeping chances for storms in the forecast through the Memorial Day Holiday.

As for air quality, on and off clouds will be around through the weekend and as mentioned, so will chances for storms. But sunshine will be experienced at times and if precipitation holds off, increases of ozone into the Moderate range is a possibility. Weaker winds from the south and increased moisture could allow fine particulate to reach Moderate, especially across southern locations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a boundary becoming positioned over the state into next week. This will keep scattered clouds and precipitation in the forecast, along with warm, humid conditions. Ozone and fine particulate during this time is not expected to reach higher than Moderate.

Forecast Update by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Friday Mary 22nd, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, May 26th, 2020

5/18/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 18th, 2020 through Monday, May 25th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The low pressure system that has dumped a couple inches of rain across the state over the last two days will continue to affect our wind pattern for most of the work week.  The counterclockwise circulation around the low, currently located over Illinois, is providing easterly winds and Good Air Quality.

The slow-moving nature of this system will have it migrating southeastward over the next few days.  This will keep our winds with an easterly component and should keep our Air Quality in the Good category with some scattered Low Moderates west of the Detroit area.

The next change in the wind pattern, which could impact Air Quality, will not be seen until the weekend when winds turn calm before turning southwest in advance of the next low pressure system.  At that time, we may see some Low Moderates in fine particulates but should not significantly affect ozone concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Low Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 18th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, May 25th, 2020

5/11/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 11th, 2020 through Monday, May 18th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system could produce light, scattered precipitation Monday, otherwise, high pressure moving in produces cold, quiet conditions through mid-week. Past mid-week, a warmer weather pattern sets-up but it will be accompanied by chances for rain.

As for air quality, cool northerly winds keep both ozone and fine particulate Good through Tuesday. High pressure settling overhead Wednesday may allow for some low Moderate fine particulate, however, ozone remains Good. The next system moves into the region later Wednesday/Thursday bringing warmer temperatures, clouds, and precipitation. Pollution levels will be Good Thursday, but lighter winds Friday could cause some low Moderate fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the front passing south Friday, but then brings it back north over the area during the weekend. Precipitation will be in the forecast through Sunday/early Monday. Warmer temperatures and increased moisture could allow for low Moderate fine particulate through early next week while clouds and precipitation are expected to keep ozone generally Good.

Forecast Updated By Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, May 11th, 2020
Next Forecast Update : Monday, May 18th, 2020

5/4/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 4th, 2020 through Monday, May 11th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following a pleasant weekend which saw many get outside and tackle yard work, the upcoming week will provide an opportunity to let those sore muscles recover.  The 7-day forecast, and probably beyond, shows well below normal temperatures.  This pattern should peak in the Friday/Saturday time frame where a hard frost is expected and the possibility for snow showers returns.

The cold air filtering from the north will be very clean.  As a result, Air Quality should remain mostly Good through the forecast period.  As the origin of the air is very far north, it is expected to be very dry reducing the chance for any significant precipitation.  There will be a low system, which passes to our south across the Ohio Valley, which could provide some clouds and light showers in the southern tier counties, but nothing of significance.

The next chance of a system passing through the area will likely not be until the Sunday/Monday time slot.  Even then, we probably will not see much of a temperature warm-up and should still experience mostly Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 4th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, May 11th, 2020

4/27/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 27th, 2020 through Monday, May 4th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak disturbance drops in from the northwest Monday with increasing clouds and chances for precipitation moving from northwest to southeast. Precipitation then remains in the forecast as a low-pressure area develops and slowly tracks across the Great Lakes region through Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are expected with a predominant southerly component to the wind. This will change Thursday, however, as cool northerly winds develop behind the departing system. High pressure Friday brings precipitation to the end as temperatures moderate closer to normal.

As for air quality this week, light and/or southerly winds could allow for periods of low Moderate fine particulate, especially in southern portions of the state. Fine particulate levels improve later Thursday with northerly winds moving in; Good fine particulate is expected for Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a weak front passing late Saturday into Sunday. The timing or strength of this system isn’t clear this far out; however, temperatures should remain seasonable. Without models showing an extended period of stagnation, fine particulate through early next week should not reach higher than low Moderate.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE M. HENGESBACH: MONDAY, April 27th, 2020.NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: MONDAY, May 4th, 2020

4/20/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 20th, 2020 through Monday, April 27th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week before active weather moves through and drops temperatures to below-average levels.  Monday’s sun and warmer temperatures will end as a cold front drops down and passes through Monday night.  The colder air behind the front will provide Good Air Quality for the region.

Very cold air, Tuesday night, will give way to slightly warmer air during Wednesday and Thursday as a warm front migrates northward and stalls over the Michigan/Indiana border.  The air north of the front will still be cold enough to support snow showers and the placement of that stalled warm front will likely lead to some Low Moderates along the lake shore and Southeast Michigan areas.

By the weekend, that front should drop southward as a cold front and return the area back to solid Good levels which should persist through Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 20th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 27th, 2020

4/13/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 13th, 2020 through Monday, April 20th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations should be mostly Good through Thursday with Moderates possible later in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A strong storm system moving through the Great Lakes region is producing strong winds statewide and snow accumulations across parts of the Upper Peninsula. Winds will be the most influential part of the storm further south with temperatures dropping during the day. Strong northwesterly winds will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

Looking into the week, conditions should be generally dry and only small chance for precipitation exists Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool air will be in place with temperatures averaging below normal during the work week. A northerly component to the wind both at the surface and upper levels should keep fine particulate Good through Thursday. Lighter winds are anticipated Friday as a storm system passes south through the Ohio Valley. Fine particulate may reach low-end Moderate, mainly across the southern portion of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show temperatures moderating for the weekend. High pressure settles in Saturday but a storm system passing across the northern Great Lakes brings precipitation in the forecast early next week. Fine particulate will range from middle Good to low Moderate during this period.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, April 13th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 20th, 2020

4/6/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 6th, 2020 through Monday, April 13th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We will enjoy a couple more days of warmer weather before temperatures cool back down for the second half of the week.

Monday will see some sun before an approaching warm front causes clouds to develop from overriding warm air over cooler air.  As the warm front approaches and passes during Tuesday, we can expect warm temperatures around 60 along with some shower activity.  The warmer, moist air will also increase the likelihood of Low Moderate fine particulates in the southern half of the state. 

The cold front associated with the same low pressure system will pass Tuesday night providing more shower activity.  I expect clearing behind the front and a mostly pleasant day during Wednesday with some localized Low Moderate conditions but mostly Good.

The biggest change occurs Wednesday night with the passage of a stronger cold front.  Cooler and cleaning air will filter in on the back side.  This will drop our temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal and will provide Good Air Quality.  This cooler, cleaner air should persist into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 6th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 13th, 2020

3/30/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 30th, 2020 through Monday, April 6th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low pressure will pull away from the region Monday ending precipitation chances. Northerly winds at the surface and upper levels through mid-week should keep fine particulate generally Good. While fair conditions are expected with weak high pressure dominating, moderating temperatures and lighter winds may allow for a bit more stagnation and a few low-end Moderate readings Thursday or Friday. Southern locations have the best chance at experiencing Moderate fine particulate.

Winds pick up from the south Saturday ahead of a cold front expected to pass through later in the day. Any Moderate fine particulate will improve back to Good late Saturday as winds turn back to the northwest.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure building back in for early next week. Upper Good to low Moderate fine particulate is expected.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday March 30th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 6th, 2020

3/23/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 23rd, 2020 through Monday, March 30th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

High pressure will drift across the region during Monday following an early Spring snowfall Sunday night.  That high pressure will drift eastward through Tuesday and set up east winds across the state.  Normally, that would set up a forecast for Low Moderates east of the Southeast Michigan but the dynamics are certainly changed. 

A center of low pressure will pass across Kentucky early Wednesday reinforcing easterly winds.  A ridge of surface high pressure will slide across the Midwest during Wednesday.  This will briefly switch the winds to the northwest before the next approaching front yields southwest winds and warming temperatures by early Thursday.  The warm front associated with that system will drop south during Friday providing northeast and eastly winds through midday Sunday.  The cold front portion of that system passes later Sunday and the region will come under northwest winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 23rd, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 30th, 2020

3/16/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday March 16th, 2020 through Monday, March 23rd, 2020

Lighter winds Monday may allow for a few Moderate fine particulate readings; however, a boundary moving through early Tuesday should bring levels back to Good. By Wednesday, a storm system is approaching from the southwest. Increased moisture, warmer temperatures and a southerly wind cause precipitation chances, but it will also allow for scattered Moderate fine particulate that may linger into Thursday. After a stronger cold front passes Friday, fine particulate is expected to be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure positioned north of the region through early next week. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, March 16th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 23rd, 2020

3/9/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 9th, 2020 through Monday, March 16th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A low pressure system will pass through Michigan, Monday night, and provide a bit of rain followed by cleaner northwest winds during Tuesday.

Winds will taper off during Wednesday and swing around to the southeast providing an opportunity for fine particulate numbers to start creeping back into the Low Moderate range especially along the lake shore and southeast Michigan.  Those concentrations will likely amplify a bit during Thursday as those winds become more moist and warmer under a solid southwest flow.  I expect most of the state will experience Low/Mid-Moderate concentrations during Thursday.

Another system is expected to pass through late Thursday which should return our Air Quality back into the Good range.  I expect those Good conditions to persist through the weekend, even as winds turn to the northeast during Sunday and Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 9th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 16th, 2020

3/2/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 2nd, 2020 through Monday, March 9th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

On and off weather systems will pass generally north of the state this week. Precipitation is in the forecast; however, the best chance arrives with the Thursday system. After each tracks east, winds turn northwesterly for a time helping to keep fine particulate from increasing significantly. There will be periods of transition between systems with lighter winds; for instance, weak winds Wednesday may allow for a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate. Another time frame for possible Moderates will be Saturday as high pressure settles overhead briefly.

For the week, we are expecting a mix of Good to low Moderate fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a stronger storms system approaching by Monday of next week. For the weekend, stronger southwesterly winds develop late Saturday into Sunday. The stronger flow should keep fine particulate from increasing; however, warmer winds over some snow in the northern portion of the state may cause some Moderate readings.

Forecast Update By: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, March 2nd, 2020
Next Forecast Update: Monday, March 9th, 2020

2/24/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 24th, 2020 through Monday, March 2nd, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good with some Low Moderates during late in the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A combination of low pressure systems present themselves across the country on Monday.  The most significant low pressure center is located over Oklahoma, Monday morning, and will affect our weather through mid-week.  The track of that system is not completely understood, yet, but it will track up through the Ohio Valley.  Michigan will see some significant snow during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and the ultimate track of this system will decide the amounts. 

During this time, winds will be northeasterly, clean and will lead to Good Air Quality.  By Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest with continued Good Air Quality. 

Northwest winds will persist until Sunday when a passing ridge axis puts the region back under a southwest wind regime.  Brisk wind speeds show be enough to keep Air Quality in the Good category but could lead to Low Moderates in more urban areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, February 24th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 2nd, 2020

2/18/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, February 18th, 2020 through Monday, February 24th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good through the work week with the chance of Low Moderates during the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Low Moderates in the Southeast Michigan area should be cleaned, during Tuesday, on the heels of a cold front passing through the state.  A secondary cold front will pass during the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning time frame, reinforcing that clean-out.

Wednesday and Thursday Air Quality should be Good with persisting cold, clean, northwest winds as a large high pressure system drifts eastward.

By Friday, the center of high pressure will have drifted far enough eastward to place the forecast region back under southwest winds.  With those winds, we will see increasing temperatures and humidity along with creeping fine particulates.  During Saturday, most of the state will likely experience some Low Moderate concentrations, which should continue into Sunday.

Low pressure, to our south, will drift eastward on Monday putting the state under a northeast wind pattern.  This wind shift should clean out most of the lingering particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 18th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 24th, 2020

2/14/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, February 14th, 2020 through Tuesday, February 18th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure sliding overhead Friday will end Lake Effect snows over the western portion of the state. Gusty southwest winds develop Saturday as the high pushes east and a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. This front will bring snow in the forecast from northwest to southeast Saturday; significant accumulations are not expected. High pressure builds back in to start the new week; however, a system approaching from the west/southwest on Presidents Day will bring warmer temperatures and chances for both rain and snow; rain should be confined to southern areas.

As for air quality, a weaker northerly wind should keep fine particulate mostly Good Friday. Strong southwest winds Saturday will allow Good fine particulate to continue. Weak high pressure Sunday produces lighter winds, especially in the southeast; this could cause some Moderate fine particulate. With southerly winds and increased moisture on Monday, more widespread Moderate fine particulate is expected.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the Presidents Day system pulling east by Tuesday with a good northwesterly wind developing. Any buildup of fine particulate should improve to Good Tuesday, and Good readings are expected to continue through mid-week.

FORECAST UPDATE BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14TH, 2020
NEXT FORCAST UPDATE: TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18TH, 2020