3/1/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 1st, 2021 through Monday, March 8th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a sprinkling of Moderates during Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today (Monday) marks the beginning of meteorological Spring (March 1st), as opposed to astronomical Spring (March 20th).  Yes, I needed to insert the word “Spring” into my forecast!

During the past two weeks, observers have noted that fine particulate levels have been running well into the Moderate range throughout the Midwest.  This was due, in part, by warming temperatures over a melting snow base with calm nights and sinking air. 

That trend was finally broken up early Monday morning with the passage of a front.  Cleaner, dryer air has pushed out the accumulated fine particulates and we are back into the Good range.  The high pressure cell moving over Michigan during Monday will be quickly pushed out and replaced by a brief warming trend during Tuesday and Wednesday.  While I would expect some Low Moderates in the more urban areas, most of the state should stay in the Good range.

Colder, cleaner air should return on Thursday and persist through most of the forecast period keeping our Air Quality Good.  Southerly wind flow returns late in the weekend which could trigger another creep in fine particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 1st, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 8th, 2021

Forecast Update 2/22/2021

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 22nd, 2021 through Monday, March 1st, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle/upper Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather forecast this week shows periods of snow as a couple of disturbances pass by. Moderating temperatures are also in the forecast which could reach above freezing at times. The warmer conditions are expected to last through the week and readings may be warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain at times. The highest chances for precipitation will be late Monday/early Tuesday, and again Wednesday. After the Wednesday system, weak high pressure moves in.

As for air quality, the weak front Monday decreased fine particulate concentrations but with warmer temperatures in place some locations may stay low Moderate. Over the next few days, west/northwest winds develop in the wake of each system, however, the flow quickly turns back southerly. Also, moderating temperatures continue over the region. Weak to southerly winds and warmer temperatures over the snowpack will likely keep Moderate fine particulate through Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure moves in and moderating temperatures remain. Weaker winds and continued snowmelt will allow for increased fine particulate and mostly Moderate readings are expected.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show storm systems both Saturday and Monday. The exact timing of each is uncertain; however, warmer temperatures remain through the weekend keeping fine particulate mostly Moderate. A cooler and stronger northwest flow is anticipated behind the system early next week. If that pans out, fine particulate will improve Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast Update by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday March 22nd, 2021. Next forecast update: Monday, March 1st, 2021

2/16/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 through Monday, February 22nd, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Extremely cold weather continues through the remainder of this work week.  As of Tuesday morning, a surface low is tracking though western New York, which will cause snow to end by mid-morning.  Weak northerly winds should keep Air Quality mostly Good through Tuesday.

Mostly calm winds with a slight southeast bias could lead to some Moderate levels during Wednesday.  During this recent cold snap, some higher concentrations have been observed during the late night and early morning hours as calm conditions tend to trap air near the cold ground surface.  Fortunately, that trapping breaks up during the morning hours such that the 24-hour average usually remains Good to Low Moderate.  Such may be the case on Wednesday.

The remainder of the work week should be under a weak northerly or westerly wind flow and more consistent Good Air Quality.

Low winds biased to a southerly component should return for the weekend along with the chance of Moderate conditions.  A warmup looks to be on track for early next week.  A melting snowpack will add moisture over a cold ground surface which will likely cause low-level trapping and higher fine particulates levels.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Moderate going into next week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 Next forecast update: Monday, February 22nd, 2021

2/8/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 8th, 2021 through Tuesday, February 16th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cold conditions experienced this past weekend will continue over the next week and on and off snow showers are in the forecast as well. While most snow should remain near the most prone lake effect areas, a few disturbances moving through will enhance snow chances across the rest of the state at times.

As for air quality, weaker winds Monday could allow for Moderate fine particulate, especially across the southern portion of the state. The threat for Moderates continues this week, especially hourly readings early in the day across southern Michigan. Winds will not be strong, but the direction does turn northerly every few days helping to keep fine particulate from increasing. The range of fine particulate concentrations through Friday will be between upper Good and middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show uncertainties in an upcoming weekend system; however, it looks as if cold temperatures remain in place. With on and off systems moving through, an extended period of stagnation is not anticipated. Fine particulate readings higher than Moderate are not expected through early next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, February 8th, 2021. Next forecast update: Tuesday, February 16th, 2021.

2/1/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 1st, 2021 through Monday, February 8th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period, except for the possibility of Moderates around mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weekend storm system pulling off to the east coast is keeping snow chances in the forecast across the southeastern part of the state. In the west. a weak trough coming through Monday allows for lakeshore precipitation. After these systems move through, high pressure brings quiet conditions for a couple days. The quiet weather is expected to be short-lived, however, with the next system approaching Thursday. Initial precipitation Thursday could be mixed but expect a change to all snow Friday as temperatures drop.

As for air quality, fine particulate Monday and Tuesday remain generally Good thanks to northerly winds. Wind speeds decrease Wednesday as high pressure moves overhead and increases of fine particulate into the Moderate range are likely. Southwest winds and warmer temperatures Thursday could keep Moderate fine particulate around. A strong cold front passing Friday brings in cold air and a return to Good air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold air ushering over the region for the coming weekend. There is uncertainty on precipitation chances; however, the takeaway is cold northerly winds will keep fine particulate Good early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday February 1st, 2021. Next forecast update: Monday, February 8th, 2021

1/25/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 25th, 2021 through Monday, February 1st, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

So far, this has been a relatively dry winter with snowfall amounts well below average.  We should make up a little ground on that, Monday night and Tuesday, as a low-pressure cell passes to our south across the upper Ohio Valley.  While not a major event, we can still expect a few inches of new snow between the I-94 and I-96 corridor. 

As of Monday morning, we are seeing Moderate levels of PM-2.5 across the Lower Peninsula.  That should persist through Monday with remnants of these Moderates confined to Southeast Michigan on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly Good under a northerly component wind pattern.  A high-pressure ridge passes over the region, Friday, which could return Moderate conditions to some areas of the State.  These conditions would likely persist until Sunday when a low-pressure cell passes through the State.  West to northwest winds will persist from Sunday afternoon through early next week along with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 25th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, February 1st, 2021

1/19/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 through Monday, January 25th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A shortwave passing late Tuesday enhances snow, generally in the most prone northwest flow lake effect areas. Ridging builds in Wednesday moderating temperatures for a short period, but a front passing Thursday brings a return to cooler conditions. Cooler temperatures linger into Friday as do northwest flow lake effect snow showers. Quiet conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure overhead.

As for air quality, without a period of stagnation this week daily averages of fine particulate should be mostly Good. With that, some locations may experience a few hours each day with hourly concentrations in the Moderate range. Winds turn southwesterly for a short period of time Wednesday, but winds will be gusty, therefore, this should not cause much of an increase in fine particulate. Early Thursday, the direction returns to the west/northwest and generally Good air quality is expected both Thursday and Friday. Increases in fine particulate towards the Moderate range are possible Saturday as winds decrease under high pressure.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next system approaching Sunday. Models are not clear on the timing or strength of this system, however, southerly winds, which will be light at times, could cause Moderate fine particulate early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist, Stephanie M. Hengesbach Tuesday, January 19th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, January 25th, 2021

1/11/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 11th, 2021 through Monday, January 18th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We are looking at a quiet week, for the most part.  The work week starts under cloudy skies and a threat of some light freezing drizzle.  Air Quality is predominantly Moderate through most of the state, on Monday.  I expect the threat of freezing drizzle and Moderate conditions will persist through Tuesday.

The majority of the rest of the work week should be quiet with near normal temperature and a mixture of Good and Moderates.  A cleanout should happen late Thursday and early Friday when a weak cold front sweeps through the region.  A stronger front follows during Saturday with cooler temperatures and Good Air Quality, which should continue through the weekend. 

By Monday, we return to light southwest winds which could push levels back into the Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 11th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, January 18th, 2021

1/4/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 4th, 2021 through Monday, January 11th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak front passing later Monday may trigger scattered flurries and/or drizzle into Tuesday, otherwise, mostly cloudy, and quiet conditions will exist this week. Low level moisture will be increased the next few days thanks to lighter winds, subsidence, and snow cover over most of the state. The combination of these conditions will keep fine particulate upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will still be dominating the region, however, a storm system passing well south and east of Michigan will produce easterly winds over the state. The east to northeasterly flow towards the end of the workweek could bring some improvement to fine particulate levels, but readings in the Moderate range are still a possibility.

Weaker winds move back in for the weekend as high pressure slides in from the northwest. The threat for moderate fine particulate is expected to continue into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next system bringing light precipitation early next week. There is some uncertainty, but regardless on the strength and timing, there does not look to be a good airmass change coming. Therefore, a Moderate fine particulate forecast will likely continue

Forecast updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, January 4th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, January 11th, 2021

12/28/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 28th, 2020 through Monday, January 4th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An exiting cold front, Monday morning, will provide cooler temperatures and Good Air Quality early in the week.  A series of frontal passages, throughout the forecast period, should keep the atmosphere well mixed. 

Tuesday should be a dry and calm day with continued Good Air Quality.  During Wednesday however, winds will transcend from northeast to southeast to southwest before the next cold passage during the afternoon. 

Easterly winds set up later Thursday, thanks to a low pressure system that comes up the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and slides northeast through Southeast Michigan early Saturday.  Northwest winds behind that system will keep the atmosphere mixed and clean into Sunday in advance of the next system during the Tuesday time frame.

With all the turnovers in the atmosphere, conditions should remain mostly Good with an occasional Moderate in the more urban areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should again be mostly Good to occasional Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 28th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, January 4th, 2021

12/21/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 21st, 2020 through Monday, December 28th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week, then Good Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Moderate levels may move back in for the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A clipper system tracking northwest to southeast Monday will bring with it some light precipitation, mostly falling as snow. A high-pressure ridge slides through Tuesday. As it tracks east, northerly winds turn southwesterly and increase in speed early Wednesday ahead of the next approaching system. For the Christmas Holiday, we can expect dropping temperatures late Wednesday, into Christmas Eve as a cold front brings in strong northwesterly winds in its wake. The cold front will have some precipitation associated with it, but what will be most noticed will be the drop in temperatures Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and lake effect snows kicking in.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels have been lingering mostly in the low to middle Moderate range since this past weekend. While levels should improve some behind the Monday system, 24-hour readings Monday and Tuesday may still linger in the low Moderate range. Stronger southwesterly winds Wednesday will hamper a significant fine particulate building up. Readings statewide will improve to Good late Wednesday as cold artic air ushers in on a northwest wind. Good fine particulate readings can be expected both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show lake effect snows ending Saturday as high pressure moves in. Generally quiet weather is expected Saturday and early Sunday with the next system approaching by Monday. Without a noteworthy period of stagnation, fine particulate during the weekend into early next week will range from middle Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach December 21st, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 28th, 2020

12/14/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 14th, 2020 through Monday, December 21st, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to middle Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week starts with lake effect snow showers Monday thanks to a cold northwest wind. The light snow ends Tuesday as high pressure builds in, and quiet conditions are expected the rest of the workweek. Cool temperatures are forecast Tuesday through mid-week, but readings should moderate towards the end of the week as southerly winds develop.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels should remain Good due to northwest winds Monday and easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Lighter winds in the morning could allow for hourly fine particulate concentrations in the Moderate range; however, daily averages should be Good. Lighter winds by Thursday turn back to a southerly direction as weak ridging remains nearby. Some locations, especially in the south or areas with any snow accumulation, may reach Moderate for fine particulate Thursday and again Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next weather system holding off until Saturday when rain and/or snow returns to the forecast. This does not seem to be a strong system, but northerly winds in its wake should bring any Moderate fine particulate back to Good early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach December 14th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 21st, 2020.

12/7/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 7th, 2020 through Monday, December 14th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

I am expecting a mixture of Good and Moderate readings throughout the work week.  We start the week under a dome of stagnant air with no significant changes until the weekend.  Fortunately, the Moderates we are seeing are fairly low.

The latest model runs have trended toward warmer temperatures beginning midweek. An expanding high pressure ridge will cause temperatures to rise above normal by Wednesday with chances for precipitation beginning Friday.  This will also contribute to frequent Moderate levels, especially in the southern half of the state.

I see a weak front during Thursday but with little support for a total atmospheric cleanout.  The most significant weather event I see, during the forecast period, is a cold front during the day on Saturday which should clean up the atmosphere for the rest of the weekend. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should again be Good to Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 7th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, December 14th, 2020

11/30/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 30th, 2020 through Monday, December 7th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to low Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure area east/northeast of the region produces northerly winds over the state through mid-week. This system will keep snow chances in the forecast Monday and Tuesday in the southeast, and lake effect snows in the most prone west Michigan lakeshore areas. After the system pulls away, expect dry and comfortable conditions for the rest of the week.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels are expected to remain Good thanks to stronger north winds early in the week. The direction changes to the west/northwest by Wednesday keeping fine particulate Good. Lighter winds move in Thursday and Friday and readings could reach the low Moderate range at a few locations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a reinforcement of northerly winds for the weekend, and a possible system early next week. Even with some uncertainty in the weather conditions, fine particulate through the weekend and early next week are not expected to reach higher than low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday November 30th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 7th, 2020

11/23/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 23rd, 2020 through Monday, November 30th, 2020

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good with occasional Moderate during cold morning, calm wind inversions.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 A series of fronts passing through the region during the holiday week should keep the atmosphere well mixed resulting in mostly Good Air Quality.

 The first front will pass through during Monday and clean out any residual high particulates we saw during the weekend when we experienced strong morning inversions.  That will be followed by a short period of high pressure then southerly winds before the next low pressure system early Thursday morning.  Air Quality should be generally good with some isolated Low Moderate readings in urban areas.

 The Thursday cleanout will be followed by another fast-moving front during Friday.  That will lead to cooler weather during the weekend and another dry cold front late Sunday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 23rd, 2020

Next forecast update: Monday, November 30th, 2020

11/16/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 16th, 2020 through Monday, November 23rd, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to middle Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weather system dropping in from the northwest Monday brings precipitation (mostly snow) in the forecast as the day progresses. After this system passes, high pressure builds in and a warmup is expected past mid-week.

Cool west/northwesterly winds should keep fine particulate in the Good range Monday and Tuesday. High pressure moves overhead, then east of the region, Wednesday. Winds decrease in speed Wednesday and change to more of a southerly direction. Stronger southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday will warm temperatures above seasonable levels. Warmer conditions coupled with southerly winds could allow for a fine particulate increase into the Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a frontal boundary setting up over the region this coming weekend. The exact placement is uncertain; however, increased moisture would bring precipitation back in the forecast. Winds may be lighter and with a boundary nearby, fine particulate will likely range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, November 16th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 23rd, 2020

11/9/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 9th, 2020 through Monday, November 16th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Moderate early in the week then mostly Good for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Unseasonably warm weather will persist through Tuesday before a cold front will return the region back to more seasonable temperatures.  Until then, we will likely see temperatures in the low 70’s during Monday and Tuesday then dropping some 20 degrees cooler on Wednesday.  Southerly winds during Monday and Tuesday will likely keep conditions Moderate until the Wednesday morning cleanout.

Cleaner, colder air will filter in Wednesday morning and bring Good Air Quality back to the region.  High pressure will accompany the cleaner air mass which will slowly drift eastward Wednesday and Thursday.  We will briefly get back into a southerly air flow Thursday before the next front Friday morning.  High pressure returns for the weekend and continued Good Air Quality.

Southerly winds briefly return during Sunday before the next cold front Sunday night.

With these series of frequent fronts followed by cleanouts, I anticipate mostly Good Air Quality from Wednesday through next Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 9th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 16th, 2020

11/2/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 2nd, 2020 through Monday, November 9th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A beautiful fall week is setting up with generally sunny skies and warming temperatures. Before then, cool westerly winds persist Monday into Tuesday keeping fine particulate Good. As high pressure at the surface and upper levels builds south then east of the region, southwest winds develop bringing in warmer temperatures. Highs past mid-week are expected to reach the 60s across most of the state. The southwesterly flow should be strong enough to hamper a significant rise in fine particulate in the long term.

The best chance at seeing Moderate fine particulate this week will be towards the end of the week in the east/southeast. However, daily levels ranging higher than low to middle Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next storm system approaching the state early next week; late Sunday/early Monday. Until then, warmer conditions continue and fine particulate during the weekend and early next week should range from upper Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach November 11th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, November 9th, 2020

10/26/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 26th, 2020 through Monday, November 2nd, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period. 

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

No overly interesting features look to be on tap for the weekly forecast.  An upper wave is passing across the state during Monday to provide clouds, but limited precipitation, due to dry air at the surface.  Air Quality is Good to start the week.

High pressure will build into the state, beginning Tuesday, to provide sunny skies for Wednesday.  We may see some Wednesday morning hourly readings of fine particulates in the Moderate range but they should wash out as the day progresses.

Some rain is possible Thursday, especially in the southern tier of the state with a combination of Tropical Storm Zeta to our south and a low pressure system dropping down from Canada.  Air Quality should remain mostly Good.

Cooler air returns on Friday followed by a warming trend through the weekend.  At worst, we may see some brief Moderates but overall Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good.

The ozone season officially ends at the end of October.  Our forecasts, starting in November, will focus on fine particulates until ozone season returns in March 2021.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, October 26th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 2nd, 2020

10/19/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 19th, 2020 through Monday, October 26th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate at times.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active weather pattern is setting up this week as disturbances moving through keeps on and off precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will be cool enough for precipitation to change to snow at times, especially further north. Cooler temperatures will exist through mid-week, then expect a warmup Thursday and Friday. This will be short-lived; however, because readings will fall after the passage of a stronger cold front late Friday.

Without a decent period of stagnation this week, both ozone and fine particulate are expected to remain generally Good. The best chance at seeing some low Moderate fine particulate I feel will be early Tuesday and maybe again early Thursday. Otherwise, I feel like the daily averages of fine particulate will remain mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Sunday with yet another system bringing precipitation late Sunday/Monday. Aside from a few low-Moderate fine particulate concentrations in the south, pollution levels early next week should continue in the Good range.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday October 19th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, October 26th, 2020