6/06/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Sunday, June 6th, 2021 through Monday, June 7th, 2021 

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Moderate to USG Sunday and Good to Moderate Monday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the Good to low Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Sunny skies and warm temperatures can be expected today. Ozone levels on Saturday ranged from Moderate to high USG with most USG readings in the west and southeast Michigan. The threat for increased ozone continues today and we have an Air Quality Action Day in place to cover this threat. An upper-level system moves in from the south, late Sunday into Monday. This system brings clouds, moisture, and chances for scattered, heavy rain. While warm temperatures continue, ozone concentrations should finally decrease; therefore, we will not continue the Air Quality Action Day into Monday. 

Strong winds the past few days have helped keep fine particulate readings in check. Levels Sunday and Monday are not expected to reach higher than low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the upper system lingering over the state for most of the week. This would keep clouds and precipitation chances in the forecast, and with this, air pollution levels should not increase significantly.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Sunday, June 6th, 2021

Next forecast update: Monday, June 7th, 2021

6/05/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Saturday, June 5th, 2021 through Sunday, June 6th, 2021 

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Moderate to USG. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast is on track as expected with sunny skies, warm temperatures, and strong west to southwest winds. The only exception is a frontal boundary bringing some clouds and precipitation to the upper peninsula and extreme northern lower peninsula.

Ozone ranged from Moderate to USG Friday across the state and readings in that range are still expected Saturday. This coincides with the current Air Quality Action Day we have in place. Since the forecast does not change as we move into Sunday, we are keeping the Air Quality Action Day in place through Sunday for both west and southeast Michigan. Forecast models show chances for precipitation as early as Monday. Forecast maps will be evaluated Sunday morning and this forecast will be updated to determine if the Action Day needs to be extended.

Fine particulate readings are in the upper Good to low Moderate range, and levels in that range will continue through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models are hinting at chances for storms Monday/Tuesday of next week. Until weather conditions change, we will be doing daily updates of the air quality forecast.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Saturday, June 5th, 2021

Next forecast update: Sunday, June 6th, 2021

6/04/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 4th, 2021 through Saturday, June 5th, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Moderate to USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast is on track for a continued warm-up as we progress into the weekend. Aside from small chances for rain in the upper peninsula Saturday through Sunday, the forecast is calling for mostly sunny skies, warm surface and upper-level temperatures, and stronger winds from the west/southwest. Ozone concentrations reached low-end USG Thursday along portions of the West Michigan lakeshore. A few locations may reach low-end USG Friday; however, by Saturday more widespread USG readings are expected. Because of this, we are issuing an Air Quality Action Day for much of west Michigan, from north to south along the western lakeshore and on county inland.

Ozone has been slower to increase in the southeastern portion of the state, likely because of more cloud cover Thursday. Ozone in the central and eastern areas should remain Moderate Friday, but conditions by Saturday become more conducive for ozone development. We are also issuing an Air Quality Action Day for southeastern areas Saturday to cover the threat of increased ozone.

Fine particulate readings have been consistently in the upper Good to low Moderate range, and levels in the range will continue through the weekend. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models are hinting at chances for storms around Monday/Tuesday of next week. Until cleanout of the current airmass, we will be doing daily updates for the air quality forecast.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, June 4th, 2021

Next forecast update: Saturday, June 5th, 2021

6/03/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Thursday, June 3rd, 2021 through Friday, June 4th, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with small chances for USG along the West Michigan lakeshore.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system over southwest Ontario will continue moving east today as a boundary sinks in from the north. Generally, sunny and warm conditions are expected Thursday with a bit more clouds near the systems in the southeast and northern areas. Ozone concentrations have reached just over the USG threshold at a few locations right along the lakeshore of West Michigan Wednesday, and this may happen again Thursday. The greatest chance for low-end USG will be south of Muskegon. Overall, however, Moderate ozone is expected.

The system dropping in from the north brings clouds and small chances for precipitation overnight Thursday into early Friday morning. Clouds will decrease as the day progresses Friday. Warmer conditions continue and if clouds clear out early enough a monitor or two may reach low-end USG, however, we don’t feel the threat at this time warrants an Action Day Advisory for Friday. Conditions for the weekend look to deteriorate regarding air quality. Warm surface and upper-level temperatures will be in place, skies will be sunny, and southwest/west winds prevail. Because of this, we are having another regional forecast call Friday morning to decide if Action Day Advisories will be issued for Saturday.

Fine particulate is currently ranging in the upper Good to middle Moderate range and without a clean air mass moving in, levels in the range will continue.

 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models continue showing increased temperatures and dry conditions into early next week. This will continue to keep the threat of increased ozone levels.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Tuesday, June 3rd, 2021
Next forecast update: Friday, June 4th, 2021

6/01/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, June 1st, 2021 through Thursday, June 3rd, 2021

Ozone:  8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be in the upper Good and middle Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High-pressure Tuesday will keep quiet conditions in place. Light winds, temperatures in the 70s, and plenty of sunshine allow for some Moderate ozone and/or fine particulate. A trough moving in Wednesday brings clouds and precipitation changes to parts of the state. This system keeps ozone from increasing, and readings should range from Good to low Moderate both Wednesday and Thursday. Fine particulate is expected to continue in the Good to low Moderate range.

After Thursday, surface high pressure will be the dominating factor and upper-level ridging will build in for the weekend. Warm air advection with increasing temperatures both at the surface and upper levels can be expected. The question mark is a convective potential late in the week. If conditions remain dry and sunny, ozone may be increasing as we move towards the weekend. Because the threat for higher ozone begins Friday, we will be updating this forecast Thursday to evaluate the need for any Air Quality Action Days.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show increased temperatures lasting through the weekend. If dry conditions also remain the trend, we will be updating the forecast daily as we move through the period.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Tuesday, June 1st, 2021
Next forecast update: Thursday, June 3rd, 2021

5/28/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, May 28th, 2021 through Tuesday, June 1st, 2021

Ozone:  8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good with a small chance of Moderate Monday and Tuesday in the urban and transport areas.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure system along the Illinois and Indiana border is providing stiff, cool, wet northeast winds Friday morning.  As that system slides eastward, it will be replaced by advancing high pressure, which will keep our winds from a clean northeast direction Saturday and Sunday.  Air Quality will remain Good.

As the high pressure migrates eastward, we will begin to come under southwesterly winds and a gradual warm up during Monday.  Since the background Air Quality will still be Good and temperatures still relatively cool, the threat of any significant ozone is small.  We could, however, see some small build-up of fine particulates along the lower Lake Michigan shore and Detroit areas.  At worst, these should be Low Moderate.

All in all, the holiday weekend should be cool and pleasant once the high pressure moves in on Saturday and the Air Quality should be mostly Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, May 28th, 2021
Next forecast update: Tuesday, June 1st, 2021

5/24/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 24th, 2021 through Friday, May 28th, 2021

Ozone:  8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate early in the week, then mostly Good.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate early in the week, then mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A cold front, which settled through the state Sunday night, is just south of the Michigan/Indiana border at the time of this Monday morning forecast.  It is expected to reverse course and head back north as a warm front through the day Monday and into Tuesday.  The area around this front will produce clouds and scattered showers which will reduce any threat of ozone.   We can, however, still expect Moderate levels of fine particulates in the southern tier counties. 

Tuesday will have the best chance of higher ozone concentrations along the Lake Michigan shore counties.  Southwest winds will transport pollutants across the lake with warm temperatures and ample humidity.  However, the potential of sustained, ample sunlight will be scattered and concentrations of higher ozone will follow suite.  With the high probability of broken to overcast cloud cover, I do not see the potential for any widespread areas of USG level ozone. 

A stronger cold front should travel across the state early Wednesday and clean out the current air mass.  The remainder of the forecast period should see wind patterns ranging from northerly to easterly as another low-pressure system slowly tracks to the south of us.

As such, I expect the period of Wednesday through the weekend to yield mostly Good Air Quality.  At worst, we could see some Moderate conditions west of Detroit as those easterly winds kick in.

As of now, it looks safe to extend the forecast through the holiday weekend.  But considering this is the time of year where ozone activity amps up, I will update this forecast on Friday to get us through the long weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 24th, 2021 Next forecast update: Friday, May 28th, 2021

5/21/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FRIDAY, MAY 21st, THROUGH MONDAY, MAY 24, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate with USG possible in the west and southeast, especially Friday. The rest of the period should range between Good and Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good and middle Moderate.

AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY, MAY 21ST, FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

ALLEGAN, BERRIEN, CASS, KENT, MUSKEGON, OTTAWA, and VAN BUREN

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm and humid weather lasts through the weekend; however, a frontal boundary sinks in from the north and settles into southern portions of the state Saturday. This boundary should provide more in the way of cloud cover and chances for scattered precipitation. The boundary lingers over the region early next week keeping partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered precipitation.

As for air quality, less cloud cover is expected Friday and the threat for increased ozone in the west and southeast remains. Warm/muggy conditions continue Saturday through Monday, but more clouds, scattered precipitation, and wind shifts to the west/northwest Saturday/Sunday should hamper significant increases in ozone. Isolated areas that end up with more sunshine could possibly reach low-end USG, but the threat is not high enough at this time to warrant action days. We are keeping a Moderate ozone forecast Saturday through Monday and we will evaluate forecast maps this weekend. If conditions worsen where we feel increased ozone is likely, this forecast will be updated.

Fine particulate has been a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate and without a change in airmass anticipated, mostly Moderate readings continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models finally hint at a change in airmass around mid-week with a stronger front passing through. Until then, expect warmer conditions, scattered precipitation, and mostly Moderate ozone and fine particulate.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: FRIDAY, MAY 21, 2021
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: MONDAY, MAY 24, 2021

5/20/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

THURSDAY, MAY 20TH, 2021 THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 21ST, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate with USG possible in the west and southeast, especially Friday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As expected, warm and humid weather is in place across the state. Ridging at the surface and upper levels will keep this trend going the next few days. Cloud cover has been the difficult part to the forecast and that holds true as we move towards the weekend. Less clouds than expected were seen Tuesday and three monitors in the eastern part of the state reached low-end USG. Wednesday concentrations improved and levels did not reach higher than Moderate.

After evaluating most recent forecast maps we feel conditions Friday are conducive for ozone development in parts of the state; therefore, we are issuing Air Quality Action Day Advisories in both west and southeast Michigan. Increased temperatures, southwest winds, and less cloud cover than expected earlier this week is what lead to our decision to issue the Action Days. In other parts of the state, while it will be warm and muggy, clouds will be more prevalent and there are chances for scattered precipitation which should keep ozone in the Good to Moderate range.

Fine particulate has been a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate and without a change in airmass anticipated, readings in this range will continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer conditions as the weekend begins, but a frontal boundary may bring precipitation chances Sunday. With the threat for increased ozone continuing Saturday, we will update this forecast tomorrow to detail weekend air quality conditions.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: THURSDAY, MAY 20th, 2021
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: FRIDAY, MAY 21, 2021

5/17/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 17th, 2021 through Friday, May 21st, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also range between Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A warming trend will be seen this week but there are also on and off chances for precipitation. The expected forecast has high pressure dominating at the surface, and an upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. Monday retrogrades west. This ridge produces south/southeast winds early in the week; however, the flow becomes more southwesterly around mid-week. The southwesterly flow at the surface and upper levels brings increased dew points, along with warmer temperatures. Disturbances moving along the upper-level flow keeps scattered precipitation chances through the period.

 As for air quality, I feel we’ll have a mix of Good and Moderate levels of both ozone and fine particulate through the week. Areas that are precipitation free and have more afternoon/evening sunshine will have the greatest chances for Moderate ozone. The threat for Moderate ozone will also increase past mid-week when winds become more southwesterly in nature. By Thursday and Friday, I expect more widespread Moderate ozone readings. We will send a forecast update Thursday if our thoughts on the current forecast changes to where we feel ozone into the USG range is a possibility Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer temperatures through the coming weekend, but there are some questions on a frontal boundary, its associated cloud cover, and if/when precipitation will be seen. With uncertainty on the extended weather conditions, a forecast updated will be done Friday to better detail air quality levels for the weekend into early next week.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, May 17th, 2021
Next forecast update: Friday, May 21, 2021

5/10/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 10th, 2021 through Monday, May 17th, 2021

Ozone:  8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cooler weather will persist during the first half of the week with some areas remaining under frost/freeze advisories.  While this weather pattern may have disrupted flower planting plans, Air Quality has been exceptionally Good during this period of cool weather.

High pressure begins migrating into the area during Wednesday and will dominate our weather through the weekend.  Temperatures should rebound back into the upper 60’s by the end of the work week.  Warmer weather and more seasonal temperatures should arrive, next week.

In the meantime, cooler weather and favorable winds will keep Michigan Air Quality mostly Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 10th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, May 17th, 2021

5/3/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 3rd, 2021 through Monday, May 10th, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations should be mostly Good with a few periods of low Moderates possible.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a warm Sunday across much of the state, cooler temperatures along with cloudy skies and chances for precipitation are in the forecast through Tuesday. High pressure dries conditions out Wednesday, but cooler temperatures stick around. Slight chances for precipitation exist Thursday and/or Friday as weak disturbances tracks near the region.

As for air quality, Good fine particulate and ozone is anticipated most of this week thanks to clouds and cooler temperatures. Sunshine returns Wednesday, but northerly winds keep both surface and upper levels cool not allowing pollution to develop. A mix of clouds and sun, along with slight chances for showers end the workweek, but again, northerly winds and cooler temperatures should keep pollution levels generally Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure on Saturday with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures. This may be short-lived, however, because the next system brings precipitation back in the forecast Sunday into Monday. Fine particulate could reach low-Moderate Saturday, otherwise, pollution levels should be Good through early next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday May 3rd, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, May 10th, 2021

4/26/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 26th, 2021 through Monday, May 3rd, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations may reach Moderate across parts of central/southern Michigan Tuesday, otherwise expect Good levels the rest of the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We usually begin forecasting ozone on May 1st, but weather conditions Tuesday may cause Moderate ozone across central and southern parts of the state. Because of that, we’ve added ozone to the forecast a few days early. Good ozone and fine particulate are expected Monday with south/southeast winds, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and slight chances for afternoon precipitation.

Late Monday, into Tuesday a warm front lifts north into the state. South of the boundary expect some sunshine, good south/southwesterly winds, and warm surface and upper-level temperatures. This combination could allow ozone to reach Moderate in central and southern locations. Clouds and precipitation chances keep readings Good further north.

The frontal boundary lingers across northern lower into midweek then a wave traveling along the front pushes the boundary east and away from the region Thursday into Friday. Clouds and precipitation keep ozone Good Wednesday and Thursday. Without a period of prolonged stagnation, fine particulate through Thursday shouldn’t reach higher than low Moderate.

High-pressure building in Friday brings sunshine, but cool northerly winds prevail. Air quality will end the workweek in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show differences in precipitation chances for the weekend. For now, it looks like quiet conditions remain Saturday, but another system may bring precipitation Sunday and/or Monday. If this general forecast pans out, ozone should remain Good and fine particulate shouldn’t reach higher than upper Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday April 26th ,2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, May 3rd, 2021

4/19/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 19th, 2021 through Monday, April 26th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the entirety of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After being teased with some nice, warm Spring weather, the forecast area is expected to get a rude reminder of the Winter weather we hoped had been left behind.

A strong cold front will be crossing the state during Monday followed by falling temperatures.  As that front settles into Indiana and Ohio during Tuesday, another band of upper-level energy will be riding up the Ohio Valley setting the stage for some precipitation north of the front.  With the cold air residing over the state Tuesday and Wednesday, the chances are good that we could see up to 2-3 inches of snow during the evening and nighttime hours in some lower-mid-Michigan areas.  Winds will be northwesterly and Air Quality Good.

The remainder of the work week will feature cold nights during the middle of the week with gradual warming as high pressure settles in by the end of the week.  The wind patterns will be mostly west to northwest providing mostly Good Air Quality.

Winds turn more southerly for Saturday until another front passes Sunday morning.  Temperatures will be cooler and northwest winds following the front will keep Air Quality Good

The extended forecast shows significant warming during the beginning of the next work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 19th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, April 26th, 2021

4/12/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 12th, 2021 through Monday, April 19th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the entirety of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

I am expecting mostly Good Air Quality, under favorably cool winds, throughout the forecast period. 

As of Monday morning, what we call a cut off, or closed low is currently positioned over Lake Erie.  The nature of a closed low is such that it spins while being cut off from the general atmospheric circulation and tends to move slowly.  As it sits there and spins with little encouragement to move, it will provide clouds and scattered rain showers over our area.  Westerly winds at the surface will reenforce Good conditions.

It will take the next upper level low pressure cell to nudge that Monday system on to the east.  By Wednesday, the new low pressure system will be over Michigan and I expect that to be the coolest day of the week along with scattered shower activity. 

The rest of the forecast period should feature gradual warming temperatures and dry weather.  Persistent northwest winds will be clean and Air Quality will be Good!

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 12th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, April 19th, 2021

4/5/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 5th, 2021 through Monday, April 12th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above normal temperatures are anticipated this week, and a frontal boundary lingering over the region keeps on and off precipitation in the forecast. The unsettled conditions will hinder any prolonged stagnation, therefore, fine particulate during the period is not expected to reach higher than middle Moderate. Better chances for precipitation exist late Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure moves into the region.

As for air quality, warmer temperatures and southerly winds keep fine particulate generally Moderate; however, areas further north that remains north of the boundary could see Good levels. Low pressure settling in on Thursday brings higher precipitation chances. This low remains over the area through the end of the week, and mostly Moderate fine particulate is expected to continue.

While hourly fine particulate concentrations could creep into the USG range for an hour or two any day during the forecast period, we anticipate the time-period to be short-lived and daily averages to remain Moderate. If we see changes to the weather conditions where we feel the daily average will reach USG, then we will submit a forecast update to detail the change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show low pressure remaining in place through the coming weekend. Temperatures stay warmer than normal and chances for scattered precipitation continue. Moderate fine particulate will likely remain as we move into next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, March 5th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 12th, 2021

3/29/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 29th, 2021 through Monday, April 5th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good during the week with some low Moderates this weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure starts the week with southerly winds increasing Monday into Tuesday. A cold front passing late Tuesday/Wednesday brings chances for precipitation. In the wake of the front, cooler northerly winds could trigger scattered lake effect snow showers Wednesday. High pressure builds back in, dominating weather conditions through much of the weekend.

As for air quality, Good levels start the week and increasing winds into Tuesday should allow levels to remain Good. The cold front will bring in cooler, clean air keeping fine particulate levels Good through mid-week. Northerly winds continue Thursday; however, the flow becomes calmer Friday as high settles overhead. Fine particulate Friday and Saturday could be low Moderate at some locations, mostly confined to the southern portion of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure dominating through the Easter weekend, but an approaching system could bring precipitation back Monday. Southerly winds and increasing temperatures during the weekend should bring a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate through Monday.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Monday March 29th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 5th, 2021

3/22/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 22nd, 2021 through Monday, March 29th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good to Low Moderate Monday and Tuesday with mostly Good the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The positioning of a low-pressure trough over the Plaines states, as of Monday morning, will cause warm southern air to continue flowing into the state.  That warm, moist southern air is not terribly dirty, but it will give us the best opportunity for Low Moderates during this forecast period until the associated cold front passes through on Wednesday.   

The remainder of the work week will have spotty rain and mostly Good Air Quality as another system moves up and across Southeast Michigan Thursday night and Friday morning. 

The weekend looks a bit cooler and continued clean with yet another system moving through on Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 22nd, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 29th, 2021

3/15/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 15th, 2021 through Monday, March 22nd, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with the best chance of Low Moderates during Wednesday and late weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low pressure system will make its way across the Ohio Valley during the Monday and Tuesday time frame yielding easterly winds across Michigan.  While some precipitation in the form of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle may accompany this system as it passes to our south, Air Quality should remain mostly Good.

The best chance of any Moderate concentrations, this week, will likely be Wednesday as winds become calm and variable and some localized stagnation could occur.

A similar but stronger low pressure system is projected to follow the same track Thursday and Friday.  Brisk, clean northeasterly winds and Good Air Quality will prevail during this time to wrap up the work week. 

Warmer southerly winds return by Sunday with a chance of increasing fine particulates for the beginning of the next work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 15th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 22nd, 2021

3/8/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 8th, 2021 through Monday, March 15th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A spring warm up is expected this week as southerly winds help increase temperatures into the 50–60 degree range across portions of the state. The warmer conditions will be accompanied by increased chances for rain Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through. Also expect will be melting snow in areas where accumulations still exist. Dry weather returns later in the week as high pressure settles overhead.

As for air quality, a weak front brings some clouds Monday, but the boundary pulls back north Tuesday bringing with it increased moisture and southerly winds. Fine particulate levels Monday will remain between Good and low Moderate, and readings should generally remain upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week. Increasing chances for precipitation and stronger southerly winds should hamper a significant increase in fine particulate into Thursday; upper Good to middle Moderates should remain in place. Northerly winds develop by Friday as high pressure sinks in from the northwest ending the workweek with Good fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure dominating Saturday with lighter winds, and the next system brings precipitation back late Sunday/early Monday. Without a prolonged period of stagnation through early next week, fine particulate higher than low to middle Moderate are not anticipated

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, March 8th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, March 15th, 2021.