3/7/2022

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 7th, 2022, through Monday, March 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and Moderate during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A storm system Monday brought snow accumulations to much of the state, with some mixed precipitation in southern locations. Generally quiet conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday before another system brings precipitation back in the forecast for the end of the week. Temperatures will be at, or close to, seasonable levels through much of the week; however, colder air filters in on Saturday as the Friday system brings a stronger cold front through.

As for fine particulate, lighter winds early Monday pick up from the northwest during the day as snow comes to an end. Fine particulate levels will be mostly Good Monday, but high pressure sliding across the Ohio River Valley brings weaker and then southwesterly winds Tuesday. Warmer conditions combined with increased moisture from snow melt may allow for some Moderate fine particulate readings. A storm system north of Lake Superior brings a “dry” front north to south Wednesday generating northerly winds across the northern and central portions of the state. This boundary seems to stall just south of Michigan until a stronger storm develops and tracks northeast into our region Friday. A mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate is expected mid-week until the storm passes Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show strong northwest winds Saturday bringing in cold air. High pressure slides in quickly for Sunday with another system tracking through as early as Monday. The weekend will begin with Good fine particulate while a mix of Good and Moderates may develop early next week.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Monday March 7th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Monday March 14th, 2022

02/28/2022

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 28th, 2022, through Monday, March 7th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good throughout Michigan this week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As of Monday morning, a low-pressure system sits over the Minnesota and North Dakota border. This system will track to the east and make its way over Michigan early Tuesday morning. A rather weak system, it will not provide any major precipitation for Michigan but will, however, raise temperatures to the low-40s for southern Michigan and mid-to-upper 30s for northern Michigan. Another system arrives Wednesday afternoon which will provide some precipitation, but again, nothing too major. Once the Wednesday system exits the area, it will drop temps along with it as winds shift to more northerly flow until Friday morning when winds shift to more east-southeast flow.

The ESE wind flow on Friday is due to yet another system approaching the area Saturday. This system will bring windy conditions and rainfall for the southern portions of the state and snowfall for the northern portions of the state. In terms of PM-2.5 concentrations for the week and forecast period, there will be some hourly moderate conditions in the southern portions of Michigan in the morning time throughout the week. As the days carry on, and winds pick up, the 24-hour averages each day should level out to Good concentrations. With the numerous systems coming through the Great Lakes region this week, particulate matter won’t be able to build up as much, with the exception of light winds in the morning time which could cause some build up for a few hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Concentrations and air quality looks to be Good to low-Moderate to start next week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki on Monday February 28th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Monday March 7th, 2022

02/22/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Tuesday February 22nd, 2022, through Monday February 28th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate during Tuesday, then transitioning to Good for the remainder of the forecast period with the exception of some Low Moderate during the early portion of the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As of Tuesday morning, a low-pressure system, located over northern Missouri, will track northeast during the day.  Warming temperatures and ample moisture, ahead of the passage of the low, could trigger some Moderate conditions during Tuesday.  We expect that low pressure to pass through Michigan by midnight, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

 Following the passage of the low-pressure system, winds will switch to the northwest and provide colder, drier, and cleaner air under a high-pressure cell.  We may see some snow, Thursday night, as a frontal system passes to the south of Michigan, but Air Quality should remain good.

 The best chance of any other moderate Air Quality looks to arrive during Saturday when winds brief return to a southwest direction.  Those winds will be short-lived, and we should be back into a clean northwest wind by Sunday.

 We anticipate good Air Quality will then persist for the remainder of the forecast period

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be remain mostly Good to Low Moderate to start the next work week.

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, February 28th, 2022

02/14/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, February 14th, 2022, through Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from upper Good to upper Moderate at times during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool, relatively quiet conditions start the week; however, a mid-week system could bring mixed precipitation at the onset then accumulating snow Thursday. A clipper system brings more snow showers into the forecast Friday night/early Saturday as it tracks northwest to southeast across the state. Quiet conditions look to return by the weekend as high pressure moves in and temperatures moderate early next week.

 As for fine particulate, cooler temperatures and lighter winds Monday allow for Moderate fine particulate, generally across the southern portion of the state. Southeast winds Tuesday switch to the southwest Wednesday brining in warmer air. More widespread Moderate fine particulate is anticipated Tuesday and more so Wednesday with the warmer air coming in at the surface and upper levels. Also, weaker morning winds will allow for low level inversions to trap pollutants closer to the surface. Hourly fine particulate may reach the low-end USG range either Tuesday or Wednesday mornings; however, daily averages higher than Moderate are not expected. Northeasterly then northerly winds develop Thursday as the front passes and the storm tracks southeast of the state. Fine particulate levels should improve during the day Thursday and generally Good reading should be in place Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure in place during the weekend. The way it looks currently, northerly winds Saturday will keep fine particulate generally Good. A southerly flow develops by Sunday with a warm front moving north through the state Monday. If the extended forecast pans out, warmer conditions develop early next week which could bring in Moderate fine particulate, especially with increased surface moisture due to snowmelt. No strong storm system looks to move through before next Tuesday, however, Moderate fine particulate is a good possibility. This forecast will be updated if conditions change where we feel 24-hour fine particulate levels higher than the Moderate range are likely.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach, Monday, February 14th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

02/07/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, February 7th, 2022, through Monday, February 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: Concentrations are expected to be in the low-mid Moderate range to begin the week for much of central and southern Michigan but return to Good concentrations in the latter half of the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The start of this week seems to be rather similar in terms of atmospheric conditions, compared to the beginning of last week. There are two High-pressure systems, one to the south and one to the north, which will keep conditions somewhat stagnant to begin the week. With temperatures expected to be above freezing for the next few days and a pretty thick snowpack in some areas, low-level inversions have and will continue to form and trap particulates close to the ground. Concentrations are not expected to reach USG levels for 24-hour averages, but enough to sustain mid-Moderate levels. Midweek, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front make its way through the Great Lakes region and helps to clean out the buildup of particulate concentrations. Particulate concentrations will return to mostly Good once the system passes through and should remain Good for the remainder of the forecast period. 

Temperature highs hang around the low-mid 20s Fahrenheit for Thursday before another clipper system comes through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected with this system. The combination of the two systems coming through later this week, will keep particulate concentrations at bay and eliminate any buildup that occurs. Once the clipper system exits the region Friday night, the weekend looks to be rather quiet in terms of overall weather and concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Concentrations for early next week look to remain mostly Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday February 7th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Monday February 14th, 2022

1/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday January 31st, 2022, through Monday February 7th, 2022

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Mid to High Moderate during Monday, Good to Low Moderate on Tuesday, then Good for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

As I surveyed the maps, this Monday morning, I was struck by two significant features.  The first feature noticed was the particulate readings, throughout the Midwest.  They were observed to be quite higher than normal with concentrations well into the High Moderate to Low USG range for hourly readings.  With the slightly warmer temperatures sitting on top of a cold snowpack and no wind to move it around, a strong low-level inversion formed to keep particulates trapped and accumulating close to the ground.  This will likely continue through Monday although I hope the 24-hour average may be watered down, a bit.  We will still be under warmer southwest winds, during Tuesday, but it will be breezy and that should mix up the atmosphere, nicely.

The second feature that caught my eye was the potential for a major snowstorm event during the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.  If the current forecast bears fruit, we could be seeing snowfall rates around 10 inches in some parts of southern Michigan.  That will certainly require close attention as that event draws closer.  From the Air Quality perspective, a cold front which will pass through Wednesday and precede the snow, will yield a wind shift to the northwest.  That will clean out any residual high particulate readings. 

I anticipate Good Air Quality should persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be remain mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 31st, 2022
Next forecast update: Monday, February 7th, 2022

01/25/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 25th, 2022, through Monday, January 31st, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will be mostly Good, with only scattered low Moderates possible during the week; more widespread Moderates may develop late in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Snow showers are in the forecast Monday due to a clipper system tracking across the region. Then, a cool northwest flow keeps scattered lake effect snow in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds switch to a southwesterly component for a short time Wednesday ahead of a cold front passing Thursday/Friday. The boundary will bring snow showers back in the forecast, along with reinforcing cold air over the region. As for air quality, aside from a few locations reaching low Moderate, stagnant and/or warmer conditions don’t look to set up which would increase fine particulate. Instead, there will be a predominate northwest upper-level flow through the week with disturbances bringing on and off chances for snow. There will be a few periods of southerly winds however, these times are short-lived and shouldn’t significantly increase pollution levels. Fine particulate levels during the week will range mostly Good with scattered low Moderates possible around mid-week. Any increase in readings Wednesday or early Thursday will improve to Good on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold high pressure moving in for the weekend. This system will decrease winds both at the surface and upper levels. Fine particulate should start the weekend Good, but the chance for more widespread Moderate concentrations will increase early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 31st, 2022

01/18/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022, through Monday, January 24, 2022

 PM-2.5:  Tuesday, January 18th, will have Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations for southern Michigan. PM-2.5 concentrations for the remainder of the week are expected to be Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After multiple days of frigid temperatures throughout Michigan, temperatures have been on the increase due to southerly winds providing warmer air for the Great Lakes region. This is only short-lived as a Low-pressure system and associated cold front are expected to make their way through the region Wednesday, dropping temperatures essentially back to where they were this past weekend. Parts of northern Michigan will see some snow accumulation associated with the Low-pressure system with the Upper Peninsula receiving the most in the 4-6 inches range and the northern Lower Peninsula in the 1-3 inches range. Winds will increase as the Low-pressure approaches Michigan along with shifting from southerly flow to more NNW flow. The cold front and wind shift will clean out the PM-2.5 buildup that has been occurring in the southern portions of the state. This buildup of PM-2.5 is the reasoning for Moderate concentrations being forecasted for today, Tuesday. These Moderate concentrations may carry over into some hours of Wednesday, but overall, 24-hour concentrations are expected to be Good. Going into the weekend, temperatures somewhat rebound with the return of southerly wind flow. PM-2.5 concentrations remain Good for the weekend thanks to another Low-pressure system arriving Saturday into Sunday which will help push out any particulate buildup.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Going into next week, concentrations look to remain Good. After the Low-pressure passes Sunday, High-pressure sets up to the south providing clear conditions. Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, January 24, 2022

01/10/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 10th, 2022, through Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Low Moderates early to mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After more moderate temperatures during the weekend, a shot of arctic air is providing a chilly start to the forecast week.  Air Quality readings are Good, throughout the state, as we start the workweek.

High pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley, during Tuesday, and switch us back to brisk southerly winds and a brief warming trend.  With that warming trend, we run the risk of an increase in Fine Particulates in some areas of the State, primarily the Southwest and Southeast corners of Michigan.  But that increase would be small, and we would only see Low Moderates, at the worst.

The early week models are following a short wave of energy currently forecast to track across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday along with the southern progress of a cold front sinking south from the northern Great Lakes area.  It does not appear to have the makings of a major storm, but some light snow may accompany this system.  Winds will shift to the northwest providing another cleaning shot of colder air.

 A stronger system is being suggested by the models for the early weekend.  While the jury is still out on the strength and track of this system, overall predicted wind patterns should keep our Air Quality Good.

Note that since the MLK holiday is Monday, January 17, this forecast will be updated on Tuesday, January 18.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to start the next work week. Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 10th, 2022

Next forecast update: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

01/03/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 3rd, 2022, through Monday, January 10th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good to low Moderate early in the week with mostly Good concentrations the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet Monday into Tuesday; however, expect a change as a mid-week storm system passes through. Precipitation will track northwest to southeast beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday with snow accumulations likely. After the low and associated cold front pass the region, cold air filters in kicking in lake effect snows. Weak ridging late in the week ends precipitation, but another system looks to bring snow back to the forecast late Saturday into Sunday.

As for air quality, weaker winds Monday pick up from the south Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer temperatures. Fine particulate Monday and Tuesday will be a mix of middle Good to low Moderate. Stronger winds past mid-week, along with cooler air, will keep fine particulate generally Good Wednesday through Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show another storm system late in the weekend. While the strength and exact track are not certain this far out, significant increases in fine particulate are not anticipated. Regardless on how the weather conditions pan out, fine particulate late in the forecast period should not reach higher than low/middle Moderate..

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach on Monday, January 3, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, January 10, 2022

12/27/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 27th, 2021, through Monday, January 3rd, 2021

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this week and into the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A majority of the Lower Peninsula was impacted by a system this morning, Monday, with wintry mix and ice conditions being the main threat. After this system exits the area, a High-pressure system sets up to the southwest and shifts winds to a more westerly direction. This is only short-lived as another clipper system approaches the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday bringing another round of mixed precipitation throughout Michigan. Friday brings another Low-pressure system and associated cold front just in time for New Year’s Eve, this will drop temperatures overnight, but they will quickly rise to the mid-30s for most of Michigan during the day. With the changing of wind direction and approaching clipper systems, PM-2.5 concentrations should not be an issue for most of this week. There could be, however, some pockets of hourly concentrations in the low-Moderate range dependent upon stagnation of air. As stated above, though, Michigan will be impacted by numerous systems this week altering wind direction, so overall 24-hour average for PM-2.5 will be in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A few models are suggesting there to be a Low-pressure system impacting Michigan this upcoming weekend, Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Most of lower Michigan will be in warm sector air so impacts would most likely be rain. But areas north of Gaylord, Michigan and into the Upper Peninsula will be in cold sector air and could have snowy impacts. With this still being days away, we will need more model runs throughout the week to understand the impacts and to give an accurate forecast. In terms of PM-2.5 concentrations, they are expected to remain Good for the extended forecast into next week and into the New Year.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday December 27th, 2021. Next Forecast update: Monday January 3rd, 2022

12/20/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 20th, 2021 through Monday, December 27th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Moderates early in the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Several systems will cross the state, during the forecast period, keeping the atmosphere well mixed and Air Quality mostly Good. There was a spike in numbers last Thursday, as fires and dust from the plain’s states impacted the Midwest with short bursts of high fine particulate concentrations. The high impact hours were not persistent, and the 24-hour averages settled into the Low Moderate range.

Monday stands the best chance of seeing Low Moderate concentrations as warmer southwest winds cover the state before a dry and cold front sweeps through the state Monday evening. A shortwave of low pressure is then expected to cross the state Tuesday evening. Most precipitation with that system will be confined to areas north of I-96 and should be limited to 1-2 inches.

The next shortwave is expected Thursday evening which should be fairly weak.  The chance of precipitation would likely be more widespread although light. The longer-range forecasts are showing another system late Christmas Eve. Southerly winds in advance of the front should keep Friday warmer although colder temperatures will sweep in after the frontal passage on Christmas Day. However, those temperatures do not look to be terribly cold so any snow attempts should be limited.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 20th, 2021.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 27th, 2021

12/17/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 17th, 2021 through Monday, December 20th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will be generally good, with only scattered low Moderates through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After another windy storm system this week, conditions turn quieter for the end of the week and weekend. A storm system tracking across the Ohio River Valley Friday/Saturday will come close enough to bring chances for snow, but significant accumulations are not anticipated. As the system tracks east, high pressure settles in from the west/northwest and winds veering to the north/northwest could bring scattered lake effect snow Saturday. Sunday should be partly to mostly sunny but cool across the state with high-pressure overhead. The next weather system tracks a low north of Lake Superior Monday with a weak cold front passing through.

An unexpected uptick in hourly fine particulate levels was seen Thursday. Upon further evaluation, it was found this was likely due to smoke from Oklahoma wildfires being transported by the strong southwest winds. The plume was seen on satellite imagery and the plume was picked up by most monitors as it mixed to the ground. Increases in hourly concentrations did not last long in any area and the daily averages of fine particulate were not higher than low Moderate at any location.

As for the forecast, low fine particulate readings Friday will not increase much during the day and Good daily averages are expected. Winds turn easterly later Friday as the storm system tracks closer to the state and the flow then turns northerly Saturday after it passes east. Fine particulate will remain Good Saturday. Weaker winds may allow for a few increased hourly fine particulate concentrations, especially in the southeast, on Sunday; however, daily averages of fine particulate will not be higher than low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a weak cold front passing through early next week. Weaker southerly winds ahead of the boundary could allow for some low Moderate fine particulate Monday.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, December 17th, 2021.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 20th, 2021

12/13/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 13th, 2021 through Friday, December 17th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet weather conditions are in store early this week along with warmer than normal temperatures. Dry conditions remain Monday and most of Tuesday, but as moisture increases into Wednesday so will the chance for precipitation. Warmer temperatures decrease Thursday behind a cold front and very strong winds may again be possible across parts of the state.

As for air quality, strong winds from the weekend kept fine particulate levels Good and a continuation of Good reading is expected Monday. As temperatures and moisture increase towards mid-week, fine particulate levels also increase into the Moderate range. Winds behind the Thursday cold front will bring fine particulate back to Good for the end of the workweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Some uncertainty exists in the extended models, but it looks like the Thursday front stalls south across Indiana/Ohio with a system developing along the boundary for the weekend. It is unclear whether the track of this system will move into the Great Lakes region or not. While fine particulate higher than Moderate is not expected during the weekend or early next week, this forecast will be updated Friday to better detail fine particulate in the forecast period.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, December 13th, 2021.

Next forecast update: friday, December 17th, 2021

12/10/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 10th, 2021, through Monday, December 13th, 2021

PM-2.5:

Overall PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Friday, December 10th, will be a pleasant December day with overcast skies and temperature highs ranging from the mid-20s to mid-30s Fahrenheit. Surface winds start out from the west today, Friday, then quickly shift to more northeasterly as the day goes on due to an approaching Low-pressure system. This Low-pressure system will make its way into the Great Lakes region overnight and into Saturday morning. Southern-Mid Michigan receives a warmup into the low-50s Fahrenheit Saturday morning from the warm front associated with this system. Behind the warm front is a cold front, also associated with the Low-pressure system, so temperatures will drop to the low-mid 30s Fahrenheit for all of Michigan by Saturday evening.

High winds are also associated with this system. Wind Advisories have been issued all around Michigan in recent days which go into effect Saturday morning. In terms of precipitation, mid-southern Michigan will receive mostly rain throughout the day Saturday. Whereas northern-lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula will receive snow with some portions of the Upper Peninsula in the 8-10 inches range. With the approaching Low-pressure system and associated winds, PM-2.5 concentrations will not be of concern. Any buildup of concentrations in recent days, which has been seen, will effectively be washed out with the approaching system.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Going into next week, concentrations continue to look Good with a slight warm up in temperature on the horizon.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Friday December 10th, 2021. Next Forecast update: Monday December 13th, 2021

12/06/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 6th, 2021, through Friday, December 10th, 2021

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations early in the week are expected to be Good with localized Moderates increasing as we approach mid-late week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday, December 6th, will be a rather windy day for all of Michigan as numerous Wind Advisories have been issued. A Low-pressure system to our north will provide a cold front that makes its way through Michigan today, Monday. The combination of the Low-pressure and cold front is the reasoning behind the windy conditions. Tuesday will have colder temperatures with highs in the 20s Fahrenheit with most of northern Michigan in the teens. The winds on Tuesday will be lighter and will be from the west. Strong winds Monday help to push out any PM-2.5 concentrations and westerly winds Tuesday help to keep the concentrations at bay.

Wednesday, winds shift to the SSW for much of Michigan which will increase PM-2.5 concentrations for the southern portions of Michigan. Going into Thursday, winds quickly shift to more SSE with temperatures in the low 30s Fahrenheit. Friday continues the trend of SSE winds with temperatures rising to the mid-30s for much of Michigan. Overall, PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good for Michigan this week, but there is a high chance of hourly Moderate concentrations come mid-late week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

There is an increase in temperature as we approach the weekend with an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations as well, but conditions quickly change and decrease Sunday as another front makes its way through the region.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday December 6th, 2021. Next Forecast update: Friday December 10th, 2021

11/29/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday November 29th, 2021, through Monday December 6th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Moderates during mid-week

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The early half of the week looks to be more active than the latter half.  An upper wave of low pressure will cut across the Great Lakes today and tonight.  With dry air in place, initial precipitation is expected to evaporate before it hits the ground.  By tonight, the air should be saturated enough to provide 1” to 2” of fresh snow.  I am expecting Air Quality to remain mostly Good through Monday and Tuesday. 

Wednesday may be the best chance to see some scattered Moderates throughout Michigan.  Warming temperatures and southern winds will cause some snow melt which could add enough moisture to the atmosphere to trigger a very slight increase in Fine Particulates.  That said, I believe most of the forecast area will remain Good with only a few Low Moderates.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to have favorable winds for Good Air Quality with no long-range predicted precipitation events to cause concern.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 29th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, December 6th, 2021

11/22/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 22nd, 2021 through Monday, November 29th, 2021

PM-2.5: Overall PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this week with some mid-Moderate hourly concentrations midweek.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday, November 22nd, will turn out to be a pleasant late-November day with a warmup Tuesday into Wednesday with surface temperatures nearing the mid-40s Fahrenheit for southern Michigan and low-40s Fahrenheit for northern Michigan. This warmup will be due to SSW winds lofting a warmer airmass to the Great Lakes region. Cooler temperatures return just in time for Thanksgiving as winds shift more northwesterly accompanied by a cold front Wednesday and into Thursday. This will bring temperatures back down to the low-30s Fahrenheit for much of Michigan. Going into the weekend, temperatures stick around the low-mid 30s Fahrenheit range with westerly winds.

In terms of concentrations, today, Monday, will have Good fine particulate concentrations. As winds shift to SSW midweek, concentrations will approach the Moderate range, with some pockets of mid-Moderate. As the winds shift back to NW along with the cold front later this week, the fine particulate concentrations will be pushed out of the region and return back to Good. For the weekend, concentrations will be in the Good category with some pockets of low-Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures hang around the low-mid 30s Fahrenheit range with WNW winds going into next week. Concentrations are expected to be Good.

Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki, Monday, November 22nd, 2021

Next forecast update: Monday, November 29th, 2021

11/15/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 15th, 2021 through Monday, November 22nd, 2021

PM-2.5: PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Aside from snow showers across the northern lower peninsula, conditions are expected to be cold, but relatively drier Monday. A warm-up is expected starting Tuesday lasting into Wednesday as the high-pressure system tracks through and brings southerly winds. However, a cold front and an upper trough will bring cooler air back over the state Thursday into Friday. On and off chances for precipitation can be expected this week. With an active pattern starting mid-week prolonged periods of stagnation are not anticipated. This will help keep fine particulate from significantly increasing.

Northerly winds should keep fine particulate levels Good on Monday. Winds change to a southerly component as we approach mid-week. Moisture can be expected to increase around then as well which could aid in increases of fine particulate towards the low Moderate range Tuesday and Wednesday. Any Moderate readings should improve to Good Thursday and Friday as a cold front and upper trough bring in cleaner air on a cold northwest wind.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a high-pressure system quickly passing through the region with warmer air again Saturday, but the next system could bring precipitation and cooler air back into the forecast as early as Sunday. The on and off weather systems through the weekend will hamper significant increases in fine particulate. Levels should range from Good to low/middle Moderate through early next week.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, November 15th, 2021.

Next forecast update: Monday, November 22nd, 2021

11/08/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday November 8th, 2021, through Monday November 15th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to Moderate early in the week transitioning to Good by mid-week and enduring through the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION 

Southerly winds will keep the Lower Peninsula running in the Moderate range for Fine Particulates during the early in the work week.  Light, northernly winds should help clean out the atmosphere during late Tuesday and Wednesday for mostly Good to Low Moderate in most places in the State.

The biggest weather event of the week will come mid-week with a strong Fall storm currently forming out over the Pacific.  Winds will turn southerly in advance of the Thursday frontal passage which could push Fine Particulates briefly back into the Low Moderate range.  Once the front has passed Thursday afternoon and evening, cleaner air will follow which should keep our Air Quality mostly Good going into the remainder of the work week and weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 8th, 2021

Next forecast update: Monday, November 15th, 2021