FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday May 9th, 2022, through Wednesday May 11th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good to Moderate. during the first half of the week.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
After a slow start during April, Spring weather looks to finally settle into the Midwest, this week. The work week promises drier conditions with daily high temperatures in the 80’s. With the longer days, stronger sun, and warmer temperatures, the threat of elevated ozone becomes a possibility.
Fortunately, the first half of the work week should be a low threat for ozone. Surface winds will be predominantly south-southeast, which will push ozone forming pollutants over Lake Michigan towards the west side of the lake. Locations downwind of Detroit, like the Flint and Saginaw areas will likely see the highest concentrations within the state, during this time. Expect some cloudiness during Tuesday and Wednesday, along with potential showers during Wednesday to help subdue ozone formation and keep them in the Moderate range.
The potential for elevated ozone becomes more interesting for the last half of the work week with predominantly sunny days and temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds become more southerly along the western lake shore which could allow for an afternoon lake breeze and higher ozone concentrations inland. The forecast will be updated on Wednesday when there is more current information.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality could reach Moderate to USG levels for ozone during the end of the work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 9th, 2022. Next forecast update: Wednesday, May 11th, 2022.