FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday May 11th, 2022, through Monday May 16th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good to Moderate during the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate for the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
As expected, south-southeast winds pushed the highest ozone concentrations towards our Flint, Otisville, and Houghton Lake monitors. Fortunately, concentrations stayed in check with maximum 8-hour averages staying in the mid-60 ppb range.
The remainder of the work week looks to be similar to the first half of the week. Dew point temperatures drop during Thursday and Friday providing drier air than we are experiencing Wednesday. Optimum dew points for Michigan ozone production tend to run in the mid 60-degree range and Thursday and Friday dew points look to run more in the mid to upper 50’s.
As a result, the forecast is in the Moderate range for the Lower Peninsula, but I will keep an eye on the monitors through Friday. The potential for elevated ozone should end during the weekend as a passing front will create a cloud cover and showers for Saturday and cleaner air for Sunday and Monday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be Good to Moderate to begin the next work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, May 11th, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, May 16th, 2022.