FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, june 10 Through WEDNESDAY, june 12
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be generally Good (AQI Green).
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green).
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
We begin the work week under Good AQI conditions. Monday’s winds are northerly with cool temperatures and low dew points. Tuesday begins a slow transition as winds begin swinging around to a more southerly direction. But dew points remain low and both surface and upper air temperatures are still on the cooler side.
Wednesday could be a bit of a ramp up day as winds remain southwesterly. Temperatures, both surface and aloft, begin a slow creep along with increasing dew points. I do expect a decent cloud cover for much of the first half of the day. Conditions should remain safe enough that I am expecting no worse than a mixture of Good and Low Moderate conditions.
Thursday is the first day that is causing me some concern. Southwesterly winds, temperatures and dew points are finally aligning to potentially support ozone production. Cloud cover ahead of an approaching front will be a key issue and the models are not yet in good agreement.
A cold front passage, early Friday morning, should return Air Quality back into the Good range for most of Friday and Saturday as high pressure passes overhead. By Sunday, however, we will be on the back side of the high-pressure cell with winds again becoming more southerly accompanied by increasing temperatures and dew points.
However, since Thursday does have some elements that are potentially concerning, I intend to be prudent and update this forecast on Wednesday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be generally Good during the beginning of the upcoming weekend.
Next Forecast update: Wednesday, June 12, 2024