FORECAST SUMMARY: WEDNESDAY, june 12 Through Sunday, june 16
OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be generally Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) Moderate (AQI Yellow).
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
During the Monday forecast, I expressed some concern about Thursday’s potential air quality. Several elements were predicted to be in place which could lead to elevated ozone levels. What was unclear was the amount of cloud cover we could expect. Later runs of the cloud models confirmed that enough clouds should be in place to reduce that threat.
A cold front will transverse the state, late Thursday, which will clean out the atmosphere. High pressure passing overhead, Friday and Saturday, will provide us with cooler, dryer weather and Good AQI throughout the state.
As we get on the back side of the high pressure cell during Sunday, we will fall under a southerly wind regime and a significant warmup for early next week. Sunday will likely be a ramp-up day with southeast winds becoming more southwesterly during the day. Dew points will start out in the comfortable 50-degree range increasing into the low 60’s by the end of the day. Even with surface temperatures reaching the upper 80’s during Sunday, we are starting with a clean AQI base with southeast winds, lower dew points, and some cloud potential as a warm front pushes through. As such, I expect elevated ozone levels during Sunday should be kept in check although I do expect an increase into the Moderate range.
Monday is looking more concerning as we are seeing persistent southwest winds, higher dew points, hotter temperatures, and the potential for plenty of sun. This trend looks to persist into the work week with the concern for increasing levels of ozone as the week progresses.
Michigan is not expecting any problems Friday through Sunday, EGLE is going to postpone the usual Friday morning forecast and schedule a Sunday morning forecast, instead. EGLE will be checking conditions Saturday morning, however, and if warranted, EGLE would issue a revised forecast at that time.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality could be Moderate to USG during the beginning of the upcoming work week.
Next Forecast update: Sunday, June 16, 2024