Forecast Summary:
Friday, June 10th, 2022, through Monday, June 13th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range from Good to Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A couple systems moving through keep afternoon showers/storms in the forecast both Friday and Saturday. Both days will see partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the 70s. A boundary passing the state late Saturday into Sunday bring greater chances for precipitation, but conditions should dry out Sunday with clouds decreasing as the day progresses. High pressure slides in from the north Monday with generally sunny skies and temperatures warming closer to the 80s.
As for air quality, some cloud cover coupled with cooler upper-level temperatures on a northwest wind will hamper pollution development Friday and Saturday. Considering the warmer sun this time of year, hourly ozone may reach high enough in areas that see more sunshine for 8-hour levels to reach low-Moderate, however, we expect most locations will remain Good. The best chance for Moderate ozone would be in the southern portion of the state.
The air quality forecast remains the same for Sunday regarding a few Moderate ozone readings possible, mostly in the western portion of the state where clouds exit earlier in the day. By Monday, temperatures increase both at the surface and upper levels; however, winds look to have more of an easterly/southeasterly component which generally is not conducive for ozone development. Also, we should be coming off a generally low background of ozone. I do anticipate Moderate ozone to be more prevalent Monday, but readings higher than Moderate are not expected.
With the anticipated weather conditions, fine particulate should range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show a warmup is still on track Tuesday into Wednesday. The question is possible storm development during that timeframe. On Monday the weather maps will be looked at and the forecast update will detail air quality conditions for next week.
Next forecast update: Monday, June 13th, 2022