FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, June 23rd, 2022, through Friday, June 24th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good on Thursday transitioning to Moderate on Friday. There is a slight chance of an isolated USG along the lakeshore, during Friday.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Thursday looks to be an ideal summer day with sunny skies, lower temperatures, and low humidity. Air Quality is currently very clean across the state.
We will be under the same air mass as we start the day Friday morning. As the high-pressure drifts eastward, winds will return to a southwesterly direction. The surface winds will be the first to switch back to the southwest in the morning followed by the upper air winds early in the afternoon.
During this wind shift, the models are being pretty consistent moving the ozone plume over the lake more towards the Wisconsin side and they have responded by issuing an Action Day for Friday. Chances appear to be low for our lakeshore to be adversely affected on Friday. This can be attributed to starting with a clean base, low dewpoints, and winds not becoming problematic until later in the day.
That said, we are still under the strongest solar radiation period of the year with the longest hours of daylight. Winds will be light, meaning we will have an afternoon lake breeze along the shore. As such, there is the possibility that an isolated monitor could see some elevated ozone although that possibility is slight for Friday.
The forecast will be updated on Friday morning. Once we get past Saturday, a cold front will clean the air and start the new week with cooler, dryer conditions.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.
Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Thursday, June 23, 2022
Next Forecast update: Friday, June 24, 2022