FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 24th, 2022, through Monday, June 27th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Moderate, statewide, on Friday. Saturday will be mostly Moderate on the West Side of the state. A clean-out occurs on Sunday.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Pleasant summer weather continues into Friday as we start the day with a clean air mass. We will see a slow creep in ozone concentrations, during the day, as high pressure slips to the east and winds swing around to the south. We anticipate that the shifting winds will keep the worst of the forming ozone plume over Lake Michigan pushed to the west side of the lake. Wisconsin, Illinois and Northwest Indiana have responded by calling Action Days in their states.
Michigan should be spared from the higher concentrations along the lakeshore as the shifting winds keep most of the higher elevations away from our lakeshore. Low dew points will also help slow ozone formation. There is a slight possibility that an isolated pocket of higher ozone could reach an isolated monitor with the lake breeze, but that possibility is fairly remote.
The dynamics change Saturday. An advancing cold front should provide enough cloud cover to keep West Michigan ozone in check.
The advancing cold front should pass through the rest of the state, during Sunday, cleaning out any remaining dirty air. Cooler, cleaner air will flow into the region for the beginning of the next work week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.
Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Friday, June 24, 2022
Next Forecast update: Monday, June 27, 2022