FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 27th, 2022, through Wednesday, June 29th, 2022
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from mostly Good to low Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Cool high pressure dominates Monday allowing for Good pollution levels across the state. As the high settles further east Tuesday, southwesterly winds develop and surface temperatures warm; however, cooler upper-level readings will keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. A weak frontal boundary drops over the state Wednesday which seems to dissipate over the area. Not much precipitation will be associated with the front but clouds earlier in the day and northwesterly winds later in the day should keep ozone from reaching higher than Moderate. Fine particulate Wednesday will range between upper Good and low Moderate.
The next chance for increased ozone comes into play Thursday. By then, high pressure will be east of the region and both surface and upper level flow turns southwesterly. Along with that, temperatures and dew points reach levels more common for ozone development. Clouds may be moving in from the north during the day, but with it being a few days out, we feel another look is warranted. We will be doing a forecast update Wednesday morning to better detail expected pollution levels for Thursday and into the coming July 4th weekend.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
After a cold front passes Friday, extended forecast models show primarily dry conditions for the coming weekend. While at this time a weather setup conducive for ozone development does not seem probable, along with the Wednesday update, another forecast update will likely be done Friday to detail conditions through the coming holiday.
Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, June 27, 2022
Next Forecast update: Wednesday, June 29th, 2022