FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 5, 2024, through Monday, July 8, 2024
OZONE:
8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).
PM-2.5:
24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain generally Moderate (AQI Yellow).
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
While we normally see elevated levels of PM-2.5 during the 4th of July holiday, these concentrations are far above typical. The culprit is dead calm winds, even up to nearly 3,000 meters above the ground. As a result, the smoke from the Thursday evening firework shows is just sitting and not dispersing. At the time of this forecast (noon, Friday), concentrations have been dropping since early morning and should continue to drop as winds pick up during the afternoon.
Even though concentrations are dropping, we will increase the forecast level to USG in Southeast Michigan for the remainder of the day.
Since fireworks will likely continue through the weekend, it is important to check the wind forecasts. Surface winds, during Saturday, are projected to reach 15 mph and upper air winds will also be more defined. As such, I am not expecting to see a repeat of Friday’s early morning concentrations, although I will be keeping a close eye on the situation.
Winds look to be more diminished on Sunday and I am hoping most of the professional firework shows will be done. Since personal fireworks will likely continue, I will keep the forecast in the Moderate range for most of the state through the weekend.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Moderate during the beginning of the upcoming work week.
Next Forecast update: Monday, July 8, 2024