FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 8th, 2024, through Thursday July 11th, 2024
OZONE:
Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
We start off the second week of July with a wide range of weather occurring in the state with a line of storms traversing central Michigan currently, this Monday morning. Much of the upper peninsula and southern lower peninsula, however, are under partly cloudy skies with the sun peeking through in some areas. Rain chances with a potential storm are possible this afternoon and evening across the Great Lakes with rain chances increasing as we approach midweek. A weakening front is expected to cross over the state tomorrow, Tuesday, with spotty rain showers. However, the more consistent chance of rain, at least for southern Michigan, will be overnight Tuesday into Wednesday due to the remnants of Hurricane Beryl moving into the Great Lakes region. Widespread rain, with a couple of inches possible, is expected to hang around for much of Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. Luckily, though, once the low-pressure associated with the withering Hurricane exits the region later on Wednesday, a High-pressure system moves in late Thursday and into Friday.
For air quality, late last week’s air quality became very interesting for PM-2.5 concentrations with firework smoke hanging around southeast Michigan due to a very stagnant airmass. The air was near stagnant from near the surface to about 3,000 feet into the atmosphere, so that explains why PM-2.5 concentrations increased to values that haven’t been seen since last year’s wildfire smoke episodes. Once the air started moving, thanks to temperature increases, the concentrations quickly decreased. For this week, however, air quality looks to remain in the Moderate range for both Ozone and PM-2.5. Ozone may see some high-Moderate concentrations today along the Lake Michigan shoreline and in metro Detroit, but evening rain and clouds will help keep those concentrations at bay. PM-2.5 may see mid-high Moderates in the western upper peninsula today and tomorrow due to wildfire smoke coming down from Canada. Although, the time the smoke reaches the upper peninsula, it will already be rather diluted due to dispersion. As mentioned above, midweek sees quite a bit of rain for much of Michigan which will clean out the airmass, providing Good air quality. Once the High-pressure moves in late Thursday, Ozone may increase into the high-Moderate range on Friday and into Saturday, therefore, I will update the forecast on Thursday.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
High-pressure and temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected to later this week and into the weekend which may be interesting for Ozone development.
Next Forecast update: Thursday July 11th, 2024