FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 15, 2024, through Friday, July 19, 2024
OZONE:
Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good (Green AQI) with a few Moderates (Yellow AQI) Monday and Tuesday. Readings then turn generally Good until late in the week when Moderate levels may return.
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A round of storms moved through the southern portion of the state early Monday morning, and more rounds of storms, some of which could be strong, are expected later Monday and Tuesday before a cold front drops in from the north. Ahead of the front, warm and muggy conditions will continue, as will periods of storms. The cold front passes during the day Tuesday; however, it takes until Wednesday into Thursday before dryer, cooler conditions move in. Cooler day and nighttime temperatures, along with plenty of sunshine, can then be expected for the rest of the forecast period.
As for air quality, the best chance for any ozone development will be today (Monday) along the west Michigan lakeshore and in the southeast. Max 8-hour concentrations will likely get into the upper Moderate range, with a small chance a monitor may reach close to or just into the USG (Orange AQI) category. Clouds and precipitation chances Tuesday through Wednesday are followed up with cooler, dryer conditions for the end of the week. Ozone levels past mid-week should remain mostly Good.
As of late Monday morning, hourly concentrations of PM2.5 were increasing at the western and eastern monitors in the Upper Peninsula. The increases in PM2.5 are due to wildfires to our northwest in Canada and associated plumes of smoke that are moving into the Lake Superior region. The most recent smoke models show these plumes dropping into the Upper Peninsula today, and the plumes are expected to track south along the front as it sinks through the state on Tuesday. At this time, the smoke does not appear to significantly influence ground-level PM2.5 levels, but daily PM2.5 levels in the middle or upper Moderate ranges are possible, especially further north. While not as likely, hourly concentrations of PM2.5 in the USG range are a possibility as well. This is something we are keeping an eye on, and this forecast will be updated if our thoughts on the current track and trend of the wildfire plume and associated PM2.5 levels change.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Dry conditions are expected to continue into the coming weekend. During this period, air quality conditions are not expected to be higher than the Moderate range.
Next Forecast update: Friday, July 19, 2024