FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 19, 2024, through Monday, July 22, 2024
OZONE:
8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).
PM-2.5:
24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will also average between Good and Moderate.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
A pleasant summer weekend is in store for Michigan, with comfortable day and nighttime temperatures and generally dry conditions. High pressure is dominating at the surface Friday, and plenty of sunshine is expected. Clouds may increase some with small chances of precipitation on Saturday in the upper peninsula, moving to northern lower locations on Sunday as a weak boundary sinks in from the Lake Superior region. However, this is not a huge precipitation event, and most locations will remain dry. Weak high pressure moves in by Monday, keeping the trend of generally dry and comfortable temperatures going.
As for air quality, while plenty of sunshine is expected, along with light surface winds, the upper-level flow remains cool with a northwesterly wind direction through the weekend. This set-up will hamper significant ozone development, and levels this weekend are expected to range from Good to Moderate.
Wildfire smoke models are showing a light plume of smoke sinking into the upper peninsula area on Saturday and the northern lower area on Sunday as the weak boundary drops in. This may allow for increases of PM2.5 into the Moderate range this weekend in a weather setup that would typically bring the state low readings. Further south, where wildfire smoke influence is not expected, lighter winds will allow for hourly increases into the Moderate range, but any increases should improve by late morning, allowing for a daily average between the Good and low-Moderate ranges.
During the weekend, we will keep an eye on pollution levels, and if readings of either ozone or PM2.5 higher than Moderate become possible, this forecast will be updated to reflect the change.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended forecast models show the next decent chance for showers and storms arriving around mid-week. Pollution levels by early next week should range between Good and Moderate.
Next Forecast update: Monday, July 22, 2024