04/25/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 25th, 2022, through Monday, May 2nd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 After a warmer weekend, cooler temperatures move in early this week and some snowflakes are even possible Tuesday. Cool high pressure settles in from the north Wednesday. This high will take its time exiting the region, lingering nearby the rest of the week. This will allow for dry conditions, and a slow warm up as the week progresses. The next system looks to hold off until Sunday.

As for air quality, clouds earlier in the week and cooler surface and upper-level temperatures will keep ozone Good through the forecast period. Good fine particulate is also expected to start the week; however, as winds weaken past mid-week some low-end Moderates may develop especially in the southeastern portion of the state. Winds begin switching more easterly/southeasterly late in the week as the high slides east of the state. At this time, wind speeds should keep the atmosphere well mixed where fine particulate higher than low Moderate is not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show the next system bringing chances for rain late Saturday or Sunday. Ozone should remain Good, but some Moderate fine particulate may develop ahead of the Sunday system. If the timing remains consistent, the associated front should pass Sunday with northerly winds Monday allowing for Good pollution levels.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, April 25h, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, May 2nd, 2022

04/18/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday April 18th, 2022, through Monday April 25th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period with a possibility of Low Moderates during the weekend.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good early in the week with a mix of Good and Moderates for the remaining forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The week starts in the Good Air Quality range complete with snow showers and a reminder that winter is not ready to release its hold on Michigan. 

We get back into a southerly air flow on Wednesday, with southeasterly winds.  This may push Southeast Michigan into the Low Moderate category for fine particulates.  Southwesterly winds, by Thursday, could put Southwest Michigan into Low Moderates.

The most interesting feature of the week occurs during Saturday when the State falls into the warm air sector of an advancing frontal system.  Temperatures could easily fall into the mid or upper 70’s with southwesterly winds.  Winds should be brisk enough to keep the atmosphere well mixed, but it is possible to see Moderates, for both ozone and fine particulates.  A good day for getting early yard work done.

A front should pass on Sunday or Monday ending the warmer temperatures and we will likely see maximum temperatures around 40, by Tuesday of next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Low Moderates starting the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 17th, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, April 25th, 2022

04/11/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday April 11th, 2022, through Monday April 18th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone looks to remain Good throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active weather pattern looks to set up midweek Wednesday with possible thunderstorms in southern-mid Michigan. However, the beginning of the week starts out how the previous weekend ended—sunny and pleasant. For some areas late-Monday, though, light rain showers can be expected, but they will be short-lived. Tuesday looks to be one of the nicer days Michigan has had so far in 2022, but that is short-lived as well, as the aforementioned thunderstorms expected approach Wednesday afternoon. Accompanied with the possible storms is a cold front that will impact Michigan Thursday into Friday, dropping temperatures back to the 30s and 40s along with increasing winds throughout the region. Temperatures stick around the 40s for the weekend, but winds appear to decrease.

In terms of air quality, with the warmer temperatures early in the week and ample sunlight, ozone looks to increase in concentration. Those concentrations are not expected to cross the Moderate threshold, however. 24-hour average PM-2.5 concentrations look to be Good for the forecast period with some hourly Moderate concentrations mixed throughout the week. With the increase in winds later in the week, however, any buildup that occurs will likely be pushed out of the area, thus presenting Good concentrations for the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures remain in the 40s to start next week as another cold front impacts Michigan Sunday into Monday. Overall air quality looks to remain Good.

Next forecast update: Monday April 18th, 2022

04/04/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, April 4th, 2022, through Monday, April 11th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and low Moderate during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active weather pattern is setting up this week with precipitation in the forecast through much of it. Rain/snow should end Monday across the state as the system pulls east; however, the next system brings a warm front through late Tuesday/early Wednesday. After that, a stacked low-pressure area takes its time passing through the region. This low keeps on and off rain and/or snow chances through early Saturday. High pressure moves in late in the weekend warming up temperatures a bit.

As for air quality, clouds and cooler temperatures will keep ozone Good through most of the period. Lighter and/or a southerly component to the wind could allow for low Moderate fine particulate through the week, with the best chances for Moderates being in southern locations. Northwesterly winds develop Saturday as the low tracks east of the state; Good fine particulate and ozone is expected Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure and warmer temperatures Sunday, but the next system could bring precipitation back as early as Monday. Moderate pollution is a possibility later Sunday into Monday, but anything higher than low Moderate is unlikely. As always, this forecast will be updated if conditions change, and elevated pollution becomes probable.

Next Forecast update: Monday, April 11th, 2022

03/28/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, March 28th, 2022, through Monday, April 4th, 2022

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with Wednesday being the only day which could see some scattered Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This weekly forecast carries us over into April so I will begin the inclusion of ozone into our forecast.  At this point, it looks to be a formality as March is projected to end like a lion with unseasonably cool temperatures.

Monday begins the current work week under a dome of high pressure, cold temperatures, and Good Air Quality.  This dome of high pressure will persist into Tuesday before slowly giving way to an approaching frontal system. 

The approaching warm front sector of this system will approach from the south with warm air overriding the cold air at the surface.  This could potentially cause some icing issues early Wednesday morning.  Fortunately, the warm front will pass early in the day and the associated warm air could push surface temperatures into the 50’s or low 60’s.  This will be the warmest day of the forecast period and the best chance for some scattered Low Moderate concentrations.  I do not expect these concentrations to be significantly high nor widespread, however.

The cold front attached to this system will pass through Wednesday night and put the area back into unseasonably cool temperatures and possible snow showers until the end of the work week.  The air will be clean, and we can expect Good Air Quality under this air mass.

Temperatures are not expected to warm much during the weekend before another front is projected to pass through the region during early Sunday.  That will reenforce the existing cold air to make early April seem more like early March.  On a positive note, the Air Quality should remain Good!

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good starting the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 28th, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, April 4th, 2022

03/21/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, March 21st, 2022, through Monday, March 28th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-mid Moderate this week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week starts out with temperatures in the 60s for mid-Michigan and southward, with areas to the north creeping into the low-40s. A warm front somewhat stalls over southern Michigan today, Monday, which is the reasoning behind the warmer temperatures appearing to stay in the south. This warm front is associated with a low-pressure system that will gradually approach the region during the early part of the week. It will provide rain and some possible rumbles of thunder mid-week on Wednesday for southern portions of the state. Scattered rain and snow, to the north, continues into Thursday with temperatures dropping down to the low-mid 30s throughout Michigan. As we approach Friday, temperatures hang around the mid-30s with scattered rain and snow in the late afternoon timeframe.

Saturday continues the trend of temperatures in the 30s, but the winds pick up from the northwest providing colder air going into Sunday. PM-2.5 concentrations are forecasted to approach hourly Moderate levels in some southern Michigan areas earlier in the week. Mentioned above, as the low-pressure system makes its way into the area mid-week, this will clean out any PM-2.5 buildup that occurs. The increase in winds on Saturday will also help push out any concentration build up that occurs late-week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The start of next week appears to have two high-pressures to the north and south of Michigan providing somewhat stagnant conditions but overall air quality looks to remain Good.

Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki, Monday March 21st, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, March 28th, 2022

3/14/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 14th, 2022, through Monday March 21st, 2022

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate through the work week, transitioning to Good for most of the weekend.  Another warming trend, starting late in the weekend, may start a creep back into the Low Moderate range to begin the next work week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following an unseasonably cold weekend, the work week begins with a warming trend.  Fine particulates are currently running in the Low Moderate range, in the Lower Peninsula, as of Monday morning.  This is not unexpected as warming air triggers more melting and the cold ground, underneath, settles the air and discourages dispersion and dilution. 

A stationary front is draped over the lower portion of the state, Monday morning, will also trap particulates near the surface.  This front may trigger some freezing rain, north of I-96, Monday night and Tuesday morning. 

A nice warming trend will occur during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  Like Monday, warmer air over cold ground creates a very stable atmosphere with little vertical dispersion.  As such, fine particulates will remain in the Moderate range.

The largest weather feature of the week looks to occur in the Thursday night/Friday morning time slot.  A classic combination of a warm front passage, Thursday night, followed by a cold front, early Friday, will usher in warmer air followed by sharply colder air for the weekend. 

Following the cold front, I anticipate Good Air Quality will then persist for the remainder of the weekend followed by another warming trend, with possible Low Moderates, beginning on Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Low Moderate starting the work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 14th, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, March 21st, 2022

3/7/2022

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 7th, 2022, through Monday, March 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good and Moderate during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A storm system Monday brought snow accumulations to much of the state, with some mixed precipitation in southern locations. Generally quiet conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday before another system brings precipitation back in the forecast for the end of the week. Temperatures will be at, or close to, seasonable levels through much of the week; however, colder air filters in on Saturday as the Friday system brings a stronger cold front through.

As for fine particulate, lighter winds early Monday pick up from the northwest during the day as snow comes to an end. Fine particulate levels will be mostly Good Monday, but high pressure sliding across the Ohio River Valley brings weaker and then southwesterly winds Tuesday. Warmer conditions combined with increased moisture from snow melt may allow for some Moderate fine particulate readings. A storm system north of Lake Superior brings a “dry” front north to south Wednesday generating northerly winds across the northern and central portions of the state. This boundary seems to stall just south of Michigan until a stronger storm develops and tracks northeast into our region Friday. A mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate is expected mid-week until the storm passes Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show strong northwest winds Saturday bringing in cold air. High pressure slides in quickly for Sunday with another system tracking through as early as Monday. The weekend will begin with Good fine particulate while a mix of Good and Moderates may develop early next week.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach on Monday March 7th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Monday March 14th, 2022

02/28/2022

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 28th, 2022, through Monday, March 7th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good throughout Michigan this week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As of Monday morning, a low-pressure system sits over the Minnesota and North Dakota border. This system will track to the east and make its way over Michigan early Tuesday morning. A rather weak system, it will not provide any major precipitation for Michigan but will, however, raise temperatures to the low-40s for southern Michigan and mid-to-upper 30s for northern Michigan. Another system arrives Wednesday afternoon which will provide some precipitation, but again, nothing too major. Once the Wednesday system exits the area, it will drop temps along with it as winds shift to more northerly flow until Friday morning when winds shift to more east-southeast flow.

The ESE wind flow on Friday is due to yet another system approaching the area Saturday. This system will bring windy conditions and rainfall for the southern portions of the state and snowfall for the northern portions of the state. In terms of PM-2.5 concentrations for the week and forecast period, there will be some hourly moderate conditions in the southern portions of Michigan in the morning time throughout the week. As the days carry on, and winds pick up, the 24-hour averages each day should level out to Good concentrations. With the numerous systems coming through the Great Lakes region this week, particulate matter won’t be able to build up as much, with the exception of light winds in the morning time which could cause some build up for a few hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Concentrations and air quality looks to be Good to low-Moderate to start next week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki on Monday February 28th, 2022. Next Forecast update: Monday March 7th, 2022

02/22/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Tuesday February 22nd, 2022, through Monday February 28th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate during Tuesday, then transitioning to Good for the remainder of the forecast period with the exception of some Low Moderate during the early portion of the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As of Tuesday morning, a low-pressure system, located over northern Missouri, will track northeast during the day.  Warming temperatures and ample moisture, ahead of the passage of the low, could trigger some Moderate conditions during Tuesday.  We expect that low pressure to pass through Michigan by midnight, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

 Following the passage of the low-pressure system, winds will switch to the northwest and provide colder, drier, and cleaner air under a high-pressure cell.  We may see some snow, Thursday night, as a frontal system passes to the south of Michigan, but Air Quality should remain good.

 The best chance of any other moderate Air Quality looks to arrive during Saturday when winds brief return to a southwest direction.  Those winds will be short-lived, and we should be back into a clean northwest wind by Sunday.

 We anticipate good Air Quality will then persist for the remainder of the forecast period

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be remain mostly Good to Low Moderate to start the next work week.

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, February 28th, 2022

02/14/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, February 14th, 2022, through Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range from upper Good to upper Moderate at times during the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool, relatively quiet conditions start the week; however, a mid-week system could bring mixed precipitation at the onset then accumulating snow Thursday. A clipper system brings more snow showers into the forecast Friday night/early Saturday as it tracks northwest to southeast across the state. Quiet conditions look to return by the weekend as high pressure moves in and temperatures moderate early next week.

 As for fine particulate, cooler temperatures and lighter winds Monday allow for Moderate fine particulate, generally across the southern portion of the state. Southeast winds Tuesday switch to the southwest Wednesday brining in warmer air. More widespread Moderate fine particulate is anticipated Tuesday and more so Wednesday with the warmer air coming in at the surface and upper levels. Also, weaker morning winds will allow for low level inversions to trap pollutants closer to the surface. Hourly fine particulate may reach the low-end USG range either Tuesday or Wednesday mornings; however, daily averages higher than Moderate are not expected. Northeasterly then northerly winds develop Thursday as the front passes and the storm tracks southeast of the state. Fine particulate levels should improve during the day Thursday and generally Good reading should be in place Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure in place during the weekend. The way it looks currently, northerly winds Saturday will keep fine particulate generally Good. A southerly flow develops by Sunday with a warm front moving north through the state Monday. If the extended forecast pans out, warmer conditions develop early next week which could bring in Moderate fine particulate, especially with increased surface moisture due to snowmelt. No strong storm system looks to move through before next Tuesday, however, Moderate fine particulate is a good possibility. This forecast will be updated if conditions change where we feel 24-hour fine particulate levels higher than the Moderate range are likely.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach, Monday, February 14th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 22nd, 2022

02/07/2022 Forecast Update

Forecast Summary:

Monday, February 7th, 2022, through Monday, February 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: Concentrations are expected to be in the low-mid Moderate range to begin the week for much of central and southern Michigan but return to Good concentrations in the latter half of the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The start of this week seems to be rather similar in terms of atmospheric conditions, compared to the beginning of last week. There are two High-pressure systems, one to the south and one to the north, which will keep conditions somewhat stagnant to begin the week. With temperatures expected to be above freezing for the next few days and a pretty thick snowpack in some areas, low-level inversions have and will continue to form and trap particulates close to the ground. Concentrations are not expected to reach USG levels for 24-hour averages, but enough to sustain mid-Moderate levels. Midweek, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front make its way through the Great Lakes region and helps to clean out the buildup of particulate concentrations. Particulate concentrations will return to mostly Good once the system passes through and should remain Good for the remainder of the forecast period. 

Temperature highs hang around the low-mid 20s Fahrenheit for Thursday before another clipper system comes through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected with this system. The combination of the two systems coming through later this week, will keep particulate concentrations at bay and eliminate any buildup that occurs. Once the clipper system exits the region Friday night, the weekend looks to be rather quiet in terms of overall weather and concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Concentrations for early next week look to remain mostly Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday February 7th, 2022

Next Forecast update: Monday February 14th, 2022

1/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday January 31st, 2022, through Monday February 7th, 2022

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Mid to High Moderate during Monday, Good to Low Moderate on Tuesday, then Good for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

As I surveyed the maps, this Monday morning, I was struck by two significant features.  The first feature noticed was the particulate readings, throughout the Midwest.  They were observed to be quite higher than normal with concentrations well into the High Moderate to Low USG range for hourly readings.  With the slightly warmer temperatures sitting on top of a cold snowpack and no wind to move it around, a strong low-level inversion formed to keep particulates trapped and accumulating close to the ground.  This will likely continue through Monday although I hope the 24-hour average may be watered down, a bit.  We will still be under warmer southwest winds, during Tuesday, but it will be breezy and that should mix up the atmosphere, nicely.

The second feature that caught my eye was the potential for a major snowstorm event during the Wednesday through Thursday time frame.  If the current forecast bears fruit, we could be seeing snowfall rates around 10 inches in some parts of southern Michigan.  That will certainly require close attention as that event draws closer.  From the Air Quality perspective, a cold front which will pass through Wednesday and precede the snow, will yield a wind shift to the northwest.  That will clean out any residual high particulate readings. 

I anticipate Good Air Quality should persist for the remainder of the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be remain mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 31st, 2022
Next forecast update: Monday, February 7th, 2022

01/25/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 25th, 2022, through Monday, January 31st, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will be mostly Good, with only scattered low Moderates possible during the week; more widespread Moderates may develop late in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Snow showers are in the forecast Monday due to a clipper system tracking across the region. Then, a cool northwest flow keeps scattered lake effect snow in the forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds switch to a southwesterly component for a short time Wednesday ahead of a cold front passing Thursday/Friday. The boundary will bring snow showers back in the forecast, along with reinforcing cold air over the region. As for air quality, aside from a few locations reaching low Moderate, stagnant and/or warmer conditions don’t look to set up which would increase fine particulate. Instead, there will be a predominate northwest upper-level flow through the week with disturbances bringing on and off chances for snow. There will be a few periods of southerly winds however, these times are short-lived and shouldn’t significantly increase pollution levels. Fine particulate levels during the week will range mostly Good with scattered low Moderates possible around mid-week. Any increase in readings Wednesday or early Thursday will improve to Good on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold high pressure moving in for the weekend. This system will decrease winds both at the surface and upper levels. Fine particulate should start the weekend Good, but the chance for more widespread Moderate concentrations will increase early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 31st, 2022

01/18/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022, through Monday, January 24, 2022

 PM-2.5:  Tuesday, January 18th, will have Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations for southern Michigan. PM-2.5 concentrations for the remainder of the week are expected to be Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After multiple days of frigid temperatures throughout Michigan, temperatures have been on the increase due to southerly winds providing warmer air for the Great Lakes region. This is only short-lived as a Low-pressure system and associated cold front are expected to make their way through the region Wednesday, dropping temperatures essentially back to where they were this past weekend. Parts of northern Michigan will see some snow accumulation associated with the Low-pressure system with the Upper Peninsula receiving the most in the 4-6 inches range and the northern Lower Peninsula in the 1-3 inches range. Winds will increase as the Low-pressure approaches Michigan along with shifting from southerly flow to more NNW flow. The cold front and wind shift will clean out the PM-2.5 buildup that has been occurring in the southern portions of the state. This buildup of PM-2.5 is the reasoning for Moderate concentrations being forecasted for today, Tuesday. These Moderate concentrations may carry over into some hours of Wednesday, but overall, 24-hour concentrations are expected to be Good. Going into the weekend, temperatures somewhat rebound with the return of southerly wind flow. PM-2.5 concentrations remain Good for the weekend thanks to another Low-pressure system arriving Saturday into Sunday which will help push out any particulate buildup.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Going into next week, concentrations look to remain Good. After the Low-pressure passes Sunday, High-pressure sets up to the south providing clear conditions. Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, January 24, 2022

01/10/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 10th, 2022, through Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Low Moderates early to mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After more moderate temperatures during the weekend, a shot of arctic air is providing a chilly start to the forecast week.  Air Quality readings are Good, throughout the state, as we start the workweek.

High pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley, during Tuesday, and switch us back to brisk southerly winds and a brief warming trend.  With that warming trend, we run the risk of an increase in Fine Particulates in some areas of the State, primarily the Southwest and Southeast corners of Michigan.  But that increase would be small, and we would only see Low Moderates, at the worst.

The early week models are following a short wave of energy currently forecast to track across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday along with the southern progress of a cold front sinking south from the northern Great Lakes area.  It does not appear to have the makings of a major storm, but some light snow may accompany this system.  Winds will shift to the northwest providing another cleaning shot of colder air.

 A stronger system is being suggested by the models for the early weekend.  While the jury is still out on the strength and track of this system, overall predicted wind patterns should keep our Air Quality Good.

Note that since the MLK holiday is Monday, January 17, this forecast will be updated on Tuesday, January 18.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to start the next work week. Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 10th, 2022

Next forecast update: Tuesday, January 18th, 2022

01/03/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 3rd, 2022, through Monday, January 10th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range between Good to low Moderate early in the week with mostly Good concentrations the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet Monday into Tuesday; however, expect a change as a mid-week storm system passes through. Precipitation will track northwest to southeast beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday with snow accumulations likely. After the low and associated cold front pass the region, cold air filters in kicking in lake effect snows. Weak ridging late in the week ends precipitation, but another system looks to bring snow back to the forecast late Saturday into Sunday.

As for air quality, weaker winds Monday pick up from the south Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer temperatures. Fine particulate Monday and Tuesday will be a mix of middle Good to low Moderate. Stronger winds past mid-week, along with cooler air, will keep fine particulate generally Good Wednesday through Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show another storm system late in the weekend. While the strength and exact track are not certain this far out, significant increases in fine particulate are not anticipated. Regardless on how the weather conditions pan out, fine particulate late in the forecast period should not reach higher than low/middle Moderate..

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach on Monday, January 3, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, January 10, 2022

12/27/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 27th, 2021, through Monday, January 3rd, 2021

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be Good for Michigan this week and into the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A majority of the Lower Peninsula was impacted by a system this morning, Monday, with wintry mix and ice conditions being the main threat. After this system exits the area, a High-pressure system sets up to the southwest and shifts winds to a more westerly direction. This is only short-lived as another clipper system approaches the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday bringing another round of mixed precipitation throughout Michigan. Friday brings another Low-pressure system and associated cold front just in time for New Year’s Eve, this will drop temperatures overnight, but they will quickly rise to the mid-30s for most of Michigan during the day. With the changing of wind direction and approaching clipper systems, PM-2.5 concentrations should not be an issue for most of this week. There could be, however, some pockets of hourly concentrations in the low-Moderate range dependent upon stagnation of air. As stated above, though, Michigan will be impacted by numerous systems this week altering wind direction, so overall 24-hour average for PM-2.5 will be in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A few models are suggesting there to be a Low-pressure system impacting Michigan this upcoming weekend, Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Most of lower Michigan will be in warm sector air so impacts would most likely be rain. But areas north of Gaylord, Michigan and into the Upper Peninsula will be in cold sector air and could have snowy impacts. With this still being days away, we will need more model runs throughout the week to understand the impacts and to give an accurate forecast. In terms of PM-2.5 concentrations, they are expected to remain Good for the extended forecast into next week and into the New Year.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Monday December 27th, 2021. Next Forecast update: Monday January 3rd, 2022

12/20/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 20th, 2021 through Monday, December 27th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few scattered Moderates early in the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Several systems will cross the state, during the forecast period, keeping the atmosphere well mixed and Air Quality mostly Good. There was a spike in numbers last Thursday, as fires and dust from the plain’s states impacted the Midwest with short bursts of high fine particulate concentrations. The high impact hours were not persistent, and the 24-hour averages settled into the Low Moderate range.

Monday stands the best chance of seeing Low Moderate concentrations as warmer southwest winds cover the state before a dry and cold front sweeps through the state Monday evening. A shortwave of low pressure is then expected to cross the state Tuesday evening. Most precipitation with that system will be confined to areas north of I-96 and should be limited to 1-2 inches.

The next shortwave is expected Thursday evening which should be fairly weak.  The chance of precipitation would likely be more widespread although light. The longer-range forecasts are showing another system late Christmas Eve. Southerly winds in advance of the front should keep Friday warmer although colder temperatures will sweep in after the frontal passage on Christmas Day. However, those temperatures do not look to be terribly cold so any snow attempts should be limited.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 20th, 2021.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 27th, 2021

12/17/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 17th, 2021 through Monday, December 20th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will be generally good, with only scattered low Moderates through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After another windy storm system this week, conditions turn quieter for the end of the week and weekend. A storm system tracking across the Ohio River Valley Friday/Saturday will come close enough to bring chances for snow, but significant accumulations are not anticipated. As the system tracks east, high pressure settles in from the west/northwest and winds veering to the north/northwest could bring scattered lake effect snow Saturday. Sunday should be partly to mostly sunny but cool across the state with high-pressure overhead. The next weather system tracks a low north of Lake Superior Monday with a weak cold front passing through.

An unexpected uptick in hourly fine particulate levels was seen Thursday. Upon further evaluation, it was found this was likely due to smoke from Oklahoma wildfires being transported by the strong southwest winds. The plume was seen on satellite imagery and the plume was picked up by most monitors as it mixed to the ground. Increases in hourly concentrations did not last long in any area and the daily averages of fine particulate were not higher than low Moderate at any location.

As for the forecast, low fine particulate readings Friday will not increase much during the day and Good daily averages are expected. Winds turn easterly later Friday as the storm system tracks closer to the state and the flow then turns northerly Saturday after it passes east. Fine particulate will remain Good Saturday. Weaker winds may allow for a few increased hourly fine particulate concentrations, especially in the southeast, on Sunday; however, daily averages of fine particulate will not be higher than low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a weak cold front passing through early next week. Weaker southerly winds ahead of the boundary could allow for some low Moderate fine particulate Monday.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, December 17th, 2021.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 20th, 2021