1/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 29, 2024, through Friday, February 2, 2024

PM-2.5: concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
This week starts with cloudy skies and moderate wintertime temperatures. There are not any large storms on the horizon, but a few systems will bring chances for precipitation. The first system tracks from the western upper peninsula late Monday to the southeastern portion of the state late Tuesday. Precipitation falls predominantly as snow further north and east, while a mix of rain and snow may be seen in western and central areas. High pressure then builds in for midweek before another clipper system passes through late Thursday into Friday. Not much precipitation is associated with this disturbance, so many locations will remain dry, but cooler air does filter in in its wake.

Fine particulate levels start the week in the Good range. The two systems moving through Tuesday and then Thursday prevent any prolonged periods of stagnation, therefore not allowing pollution to significantly build. While there may be periods, especially in the morning hours, where hourly concentrations of PM2.5 reach the Moderate range, daily averages are expected to remain mostly Good with only a few low-Moderates possible through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure positioned northeast of the state by this coming weekend. This will set the stage for dry conditions, and finally, a few days with sunshine are expected. Pollution levels in the long term should remain mostly in the Good to low-Moderate range

Next Forecast Update: Friday, February 2, 2024

1/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 26th, 2024, through Monday, January 29th, 2024

PM-2.5: concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
We end this week warmer than we started with the majority of Michigan in the 30s today, Friday. This trend continues into the weekend with surface highs ranging from the low to upper 30s. Upper-level wise, this weekend will be rather active with a high-pressure system traversing the Great Lakes all weekend, which will shift the wind direction each day through Monday. Although we will be under high-pressure, Michigan will be mostly cloudy throughout the weekend with morning fog throughout the state due to warmer surface temperatures and a melting snowpack. Sunday into Monday may see a quick passing system that will bring a wintry mix of snow and rain with little to no accumulation.

In terms of air quality, due to the melting snowpack throughout the state, PM-2.5 concentrations may reach mid-to-high Moderate levels during hours throughout the weekend, but shifting winds and passing fronts will help keep the overall air quality Good. Each morning will likely have an atmospheric inversion, so expect Moderate levels for a few hours in more populated areas due to the trapping of particulates near the surface and light winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The start of next week looks somewhat similar to the end of this week with passing fronts and cloudy skies. However, warmer temperatures are on the horizon with surface temperatures expected to reach the 40s in some areas. Overall air quality is expected to remain Good.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, January 29th, 2024

1/19/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday, January 19, 2024, through monday, January 22, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Cold weather continues across the region, but relief is in sight for next week.  Currently, a light snow is falling Friday morning, thanks to an upper atmosphere short wave of pressure.  Lake effect snow will continue along the western lakeshore counties.

In terms of  Air Quality, it has been mostly Good thoughout the week and should continue through the weekend.

I expect the current snow showers and colder temperatures to continue through Saturday.  By Sunday, we may actually see some sun and slightly warmer temperatures.  We could come close to the freezing mark by Monday, which carries the risk of some freezing rain.  We finally go north of the freezing mark on Tuesday with temperatures reaching the upper 30’s. 

With the warm-up over a good snowpack, we may see fine particulates creep into the Low Moderates, next week, but I will leave that for the Monday forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate beginning the next work week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, January 22, 2024

1/16/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, January 16, 2024, through friday, January 19, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Bitter cold across a large portion of the continental U.S. remains the “hot” topic in the world of weather.  Fortunately, we are not looking for any major storms to hit our area in the near forecast.  The west side of the state probably will not know the difference as lake effect snow shows look to continue through Saturday the weekend. 

In terms of Air Quality, current readings are in the Good range and should remain that way for the next few days.  The only exception may be in urban areas, around the Thursday time frame, when calm winds prevail and some localized stagnation may set in.  In that case, we may see some Low Moderates but nothing worse.

So, when does this bitter cold weather end?  The current models have us breaking out late in the weekend.  By Sunday, we should be edging back to “normal” January temperatures and rise above the freezing mark on Monday to begin a slight thaw and some melting.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate entering the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 19, 2024

1/16/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, January 16, 2024, through friday, January 19, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Bitter cold across a large portion of the continental U.S. remains the “hot” topic in the world of weather.  Fortunately, we are not looking for any major storms to hit our area in the near forecast.  The west side of the state probably will not know the difference as lake effect snow shows look to continue through Saturday the weekend. 

In terms of Air Quality, current readings are in the Good range and should remain that way for the next few days.  The only exception may be in urban areas, around the Thursday time frame, when calm winds prevail and some localized stagnation may set in.  In that case, we may see some Low Moderates but nothing worse.

So, when does this bitter cold weather end?  The current models have us breaking out late in the weekend.  By Sunday, we should be edging back to “normal” January temperatures and rise above the freezing mark on Monday to begin a slight thaw and some melting.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate entering the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 19, 2024

1/8/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 8, 2024, through Friday, January 12, 2024

PM-2.5:  24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Weather conditions Monday will be relatively calm with cloudy skies and reasonable temperatures; however, a change is quickly approaching with two winter storms expected this week. The first spreads snow from southwest to northeast, starting late Monday into early Tuesday. The highest snow accumulation with this storm is expected further north, while less accumulation is expected further south due to warmer air wrapping in, changing snow to rain. A weak system keeps mainly snow in the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday, but a second stronger storm moves in from the southwest late Thursday into Friday. The current track of this storm keeps us on the cool side of the system, with accumulating snow a good possibility late in the week.

Hourly fine particulate readings Monday morning have been Moderate due to weaker winds and increased surface moisture. As the storm system approaches, wind speeds are forecast to increase from the south/southeast late Monday, which should improve hourly readings; however, daily averages of fine particulate Mondays will likely range from low to middle Moderate. Improvements in fine particulate can be expected Tuesday due to stronger, gusty winds changing to the northeast, then northwest as the storm pulls away. A weak system moves late Wednesday, continuing the active weather pattern and hampering any significant increase in pollution levels. While a few hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter in the low-Moderate range may be seen Wednesday or Thursday, daily averages should remain in the Good range. Strong east/southeast winds develop Friday ahead of the late-week storm. Fine particulate levels at that time should remain mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show artic air moving in on a strong northwest flow this coming weekend. The expected conditions would keep snow in the forecast, and air quality would average Good across the state.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 12, 2024

1/5/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 5th, 2024, through Monday, January 8th, 2024

PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a sunny Thursday we are met with yet another cloudy January day on this Friday. Surface temperatures will be near normal for the majority of the state with relatively light WSW winds. These light winds will increase throughout the weekend as a busy weekend, weather-wise, is in store for the Great Lakes. A Low-pressure system is expected to traverse the area to our north on Saturday and into Sunday, which will bring flurries to the lower peninsula and a couple of inches of snow to the upper peninsula. A cold front is associated with the Low-pressure but surface temperatures will remain near normal temperatures with highs in the upper-20s through mid-30s. Monday is a relatively quiet day with the Low-pressure exiting the area, but the cold front may hang around throughout the day.

For air quality, with the change in airmass expected to last all weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range. Early morning light winds will allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to build up, but persistent winds will help clear out any daily buildup that accrues.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The beginning of next week may present all of Michigan with a decent chance of accumulating snow. There is a strong Low-pressure system expected to make its way into the Midwest, but the exact track of the system has yet to be fine-tuned and there is still wiggle room between snow and rain showers for the majority of the state.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, January 8th, 2024

1/2/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, january 2nd, 2024, through friday, January 5th, 2024

PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 2024 is here and the New Year provides us with seasonably normal surface temperatures this week with a chance of precipitation for much of the state. A Low-pressure system hangs out just to our north over Lake Superior the beginning of this week and slowly moves south on Wednesday going into Thursday. It is when this Low-pressure and cold front move south that parts of Michigan may see some precipitation—mainly along the lake-effect snowbelts. Little accumulation is expected, however. If sunshine is what was wished for in the new year, the unfortunate news is that January is statistically the cloudiest month for Michigan. Although, after the Low-pressure moves out early Thursday, a High-pressure system quickly moves through and will provide us with some sunshine during the day. But as quickly as it appears, it will disappear, returning cloudy for the latter half of the week and into the weekend.

For PM-2.5 concentrations, Good to Moderate conditions are expected with light winds in place during the morning hours. The changes in airmass this week will help keep fresh air in the region and restrict any buildup in high concentrations. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: Cloudiness returns for the weekend after some sun on Thursday, but overall air quality will be Good.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 5th, 2024

12/28/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, December 28, 2023, through Tuesday, January 2, 2024

PM-2.5:   24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
This forecast constitutes my last forecast for 2023.  As I type 2024 for this first time, I look back on the 2023 Air Quality year-in-review.  I know that this year will be one that we will all remember for a very long time.  The widespread Canadian wildfires during June gave us PM-2.5 concentrations never seen in the history of Michigan air pollution forecasting and monitoring.  Concentrations of wildfire smoke pushed our AQI into the Unhealthy range and persisted for days.  We issued state-wide Air Quality Advisories for the first time in our program’s history.  Also, for the first time, we issued dual advisories for both ozone and fine particulates. 

Even though I believe we met the crisis head-on and addressed all news media requests, after the smoke departed, we met internally with our media department and outreach groups to discuss how we can better reach and inform the public if similar dangerous events should occur again.  

Fortunately, the remainder of 2023 saw an average number of elevated ozone days with no additional wildfire spikes after the June episodes. 

A potentially historically strong El Niño is currently giving us above normal temperatures and drier conditions for winter.  This is predicted to persist through the northern hemisphere throughout the winter.  We will see if that holds true…

As we enter the New Year’s weekend, our current Air Quality is Good as temperatures continue above normal.  Rain showers will eventually end on Friday and give us a drier day during Saturday.  Precipitation chances ramp back up during Saturday night.  Temperature forecasts indicate a rain/snow mix should be the worst although overnight temperatures could dip below freezing causing some slippery road conditions at night.  Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good with a few isolated Low Moderates throughout the weekend.

Be careful and Happy New Year from your EGLE forecasters!

EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate following the holiday weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, January 2, 2024

12/26/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, December 26, 2023, through Thursday, December 28, 2023

 PM-2.5:   24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday as we stay in the warm air sector of an approaching occluded front.  Tuesday’s temperatures should reach the upper 40’s to mid-50’s.  Some areas may even get close to record temperatures.

 For those traveling, I am expecting quiet weather with drier air and winds shifting to the north.  Daytime highs should still exceed 40 degrees keeping roads passable and too warm for any lake effect snow.

 Air Quality should remain mostly Good under northerly winds for the remainder of the work week.  For the New Year’s holiday weekend, I am expecting a brief shift back to southwest winds during Saturday with weekend temperatures well above freezing.

 I am not anticipating any Air Quality issues through the upcoming holiday weekend but will update the long weekend forecast on Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate entering the holiday weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Thursday, December 28, 2023

12/21/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, December 21, 2023, through Tuesday, December 26, 2023

PM-2.5:   PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Unseasonably warm weather is still forecast as we approach the Christmas holiday, with temperatures around 40 degrees on Thursday increasing into the 50s in southern locations early next week. Chances for precipitation exist during this forecast period. The first arrives later, Friday into Saturday, as a disturbance lifts a warm front north through the state. The southerly flow developing at that time brings in both increased moisture and precipitation. A short break in precipitation is expected Sunday, but the next system enters the region, bringing rain back into the forecast on Christmas day.

Fine particulate readings in the past few days have been mostly Good, but on Wednesday, some locations in the south reached into the low Moderate range. For this forecast period, I anticipate a mix of Good to Moderate fine particulate levels. Warmer temperatures and southerly winds may allow for increases; however, the systems moving through will hamper any long-term stagnation where pollutants will significantly develop.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Extended models show chances for precipitation lingering into mid-week next week, but a cooling trend is expected as well. Pollution levels in the extended forecast should continue in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast Update: Tuesday, December 26, 2023

12/18/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 18, 2023, through Thursday, December 21, 2023

PM-2.5:   PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A winter weather set-up starts the new week, but it looks to be a week too early to give most of us a white Christmas. On Monday, strong northwest winds behind a departing cold front are producing lake-effect snows, with the highest accumulations expected in the northwest flow-prone areas. As the week progresses, northwesterly winds continue Tuesday but turn southwesterly Wednesday as high pressure slides in from the west. Temperatures at that time begin a warming trend, and dry conditions can be expected through mid-week as high pressure remains in control.

Fine particulate levels in the Good range will prevail Monday into Tuesday. As southerly winds develop and warmer temperatures move in, Moderate concentrations may come into play, especially as any snow accumulations from earlier in the week begin to melt, leading to increased surface moisture. Past Tuesday, a mix of upper-Good to middle-Moderate levels of fine particulate are anticipated through Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST: Extended models show small chances for precipitation towards the end of the week; however, conditions will be warm enough for rain. Above normal conditions continue in the long-term forecast. Pollution levels are expected to be range between Good and Moderate.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 21, 2023

12/15/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday December 15th, 2023, through Monday December 18th, 2023

PM-2.5:   PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Today, Friday, will see almost spring-like temperatures with highs nearing the 50s for most of the state. The majority of the lower peninsula has these temperatures coupled with clear skies, with the upper peninsula, however, seeing periodic rain for today and much of the weekend. This rain hangs around the region the entire weekend and slowly makes its way southward through Saturday and Sunday. A Low-pressure system lingering in the Midwest is the culprit for the weekend-long rain and cloudy conditions. As the Low-pressure moves off to the east on Sunday, a cold front drifts down from the north, which will drop temperatures back into the normal range of the low-30s. During the transition period of warmer temperatures to cooler, any precipitation that is still falling may turn into a wintry mix, but no real accumulation is expected. The combination of the aforementioned Low-pressure system moving to the east, and two High-pressure systems to the northwest and southwest will cause windy conditions on Monday for much of the Midwest, especially here in Michigan. As differing pressure systems move closer together (i.e., Low-pressure system and High-pressure system), the pressure gradient between the two becomes tighter. When the pressure gradient becomes tighter, this is what causes wind to pick up as wind goes from higher pressure to lower pressure. The pressure gradient being “squeezed” will only last for a day as Tuesday presents us with a change in airmass and pressure systems.

PM-2.5 concentrations currently are in the Moderate range as we have relatively stagnant conditions throughout the state. These concentrations may last through the day and into tomorrow until the wind picks up into the weekend. The more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids will see higher Moderate concentrations compared to other areas in the state today and into tomorrow before the wind picks back up. There is currently no driver of dispersion, so the particulate matter is hanging around near the surface. As we get later into tomorrow, however, we will see plenty of airmass changes, rain, and wind so PM-2.5 will predominantly be in the Good category but expect hourly concentrations in the Moderate range in the aforementioned populated areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

After the breezy Monday conditions, temperatures start to rise again on Tuesday with overall Good air quality.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 18, 2023

12/11/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 11th, 2023, through Friday December 15th, 2023

PM-2.5:   PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: As we approach mid-December, surface temperatures hang around seasonal norms with the latest outlook for the remainder of the month showing above normal temperatures. Along with warmer-than-normal temperatures, Michigan is expected to be relatively drier as well.

Today, Monday, will see a continuation of how the weekend ended with surface temperatures ranging from the low to upper 30s. It’ll be breezy throughout the day with winds staying rather consistent throughout the day. Tomorrow is more of the same with an impending weak cold front expected to traverse Michigan Tuesday into Wednesday. Although there will be a cold frontal passage, temperatures stay the same and actually increase as we approach the latter half of the week. If anything, the cold front opens the door for a High-pressure system to set up just to our south on the Indiana/Ohio border. This will provide sunshine for the latter half of the work week which will carry into the weekend.

For air quality, the beginning half of the week will see Good PM-2.5 concentrations, especially with the steady breezy conditions. As we get closer to the weekend, expect PM-2.5 concentrations to get into the Moderate range due warmer surface temperatures and light winds. Surface-level inversions can be expected essentially all week, and the aforementioned Moderate conditions should be expected throughout the week, but more so towards and into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As stated above, a warming trend continues into the weekend which will provide unseasonably warm temperatures and a good amount of sunshine.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 15, 2023

12/8/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 8, 2023, through Monday, December 11, 2023

PM-2.5:   24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good to Low Moderate transitioning to all Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: As of Friday morning, Michigan is in the warm air sector of an approaching frontal system.  We can expect to see temperatures reach as high as the mid-50’s during Friday and early Saturday.  With the warmer temperatures and additional moisture, we are seeing fine particulate concentrations range from Good to Low Moderate throughout the state.

The aforementioned frontal system is expected to pass during the early afternoon hours of Saturday.  Temperatures will begin dropping and by Sunday, high temperatures will only reach the high 30’s.  With the warmer lake waters, it would not be surprising to see some lake effect showers on the west side of the state.  After the front passes and for the rest of the weekend, we can expect GoodAir Quality,

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate entering the weekend, then Good.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 11, 2023

12/4/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, December 4, 2023, through FRIDAy, December 8, 2023

PM-2.5:   24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A departing low pressure provided early Monday morning showers which will diminish during the day as drier air enters the region with a short-lived high pressure ridge. 

A clipper system is expected by the Tuesday morning time frame bringing additional precipitation.  Tuesday temperatures are expected to reach the upper 30’s so any morning snow showers will quickly become rain showers. 

By midweek, an upper air high pressure ridge should push out any lingering wet weather and position the state in a strong southwest wind pattern.  Thursday’s temperatures are expected to reach the mid-40’s and Friday’s temperatures could reach the low-50’s with breezy winds.

Air Quality should remain mostly Good but could reach the Low Moderate range in some areas with the warmer temperatures and ample moisture.

More precipitation may be on the horizon during the weekend and that chance will be discussed in the Friday forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to Low Moderate entering the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 8, 2023

12/1/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, December 1, 2023, through FRIDAy, December 4, 2023

PM-2.5:  24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between middle Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week ends on a quiet note across the Upper Peninsula and far northern Lower Michigan with weak high pressure dominating; however, conditions differ further south. Weather systems moving along a stalled boundary near the Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio borders bring cold rain in the forecast across southern Michigan, a mix of rain and snow in central locations, and primarily snow further north. The first of these is moving through early Friday, with a second expected late Friday into early Saturday. Each of these disturbances originates from the southern Plains States, tracking northeast into the southern Great Lakes region. A third moves in on Sunday, bringing yet another chance for rain and/or snow. The exact timing and placement of the systems as they move into the region will determine where liquid precipitation will fall in lieu of snow; however, at this time, none of them are expected to produce significant snow accumulations.

Good to low-Moderate daily concentrations of PM2.5 have been seen across the state this week. As often happens near frontal boundaries, concentrations are increasing into the Moderate range across the south early Friday. While a few hourly concentrations, primarily in the southeast, may reach low-end USG, this should be short-lived, with daily averages no higher than Moderate expected. The on-and-off systems through early next week should keep the atmosphere mixed, not allowing for long-term stagnant periods. Also, with the main systems tracking across the southern Great Lakes region, a primary easterly wind flow can be expected. However, without a good northerly wind flow in the wake of these disturbances, PM2.5 increases may not be entirely cleared, leading to Moderate readings at times. Daily averages of PM2.5 during this forecast period will likely remain between upper-Good and middle-Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions starting the new workweek, but another system is forecast to drop in from the northwest Tuesday. Air quality in the extended period is expected to continue to range between Good and Moderate.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 4th, 2023

11/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, November 27, 2023, through FRIDAy, December 1, 2023

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate levels will range mostly Good through mid-week, with some Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week begins on a cold note with gusty west/northwest winds and snow showers, which are primarily lake effect in nature. An upper-level system later Monday into Tuesday will enhance snow showers; however, the highest accumulations remain in the most prone northwest flow lake effect locations. Ridging builds in for a short time before another shortwave produces additional snow showers early Wednesday. On Thursday, there is some uncertainty about the timing of two weather systems: a front dropping in from the northwest and another system moving in from the southwest. Even with that uncertainty, temperatures should be increasing to near-normal levels by the end of the workweek.

Weaker winds under high pressure allowed for some Moderate PM2.5 concentrations in the southeast on Saturday and more widespread across southern portions of the state on Sunday. Hourly readings in the low-Moderate range were experienced early Monday morning in the southeast, but strong northwest winds will allow levels to fall to Good as the day progresses. The active pattern setting up for much of the week should keep daily PM2.5 concentrations primarily Good through Wednesday. The southern portion of the state may be between weather systems Thursday, with better chances for precipitation Friday. Concentrations of PM2.5 during this period will likely be a mix of middle-Good to low-Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions on Saturday, with another system for early next week. This air quality forecast will be updated on Friday, but pollution levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected in the long-term forecast.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 1st, 2023

11/24/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, November 24, 2023, through FRIDAU, November 27, 2023

PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we all wake up after the Turkey Day festivities which were had yesterday, Thursday, we see more of the same with relatively cloudy skies and surface temperatures in the mid-30s for the majority of the state. Our weather stays pretty quiet today and into tomorrow, as a High-pressure system hangs around the region well into the weekend. As Sunday approaches, however, the first state-wide snow system will impact Michigan with low accumulation amounts for most areas, but a signal for the start of winter precipitation, nonetheless. Snow will fall on and off essentially all-day Sunday and into Monday, with winds picking up as the system, which is bringing the snow, exits to the east. Highest total accumulations are expected to be in the 2-3 inch range on the west side of the state with opportunity for lake-effect influencing higher totals. Monday will see left over snow showers and windy conditions but look to improve throughout the day.

For PM-2.5, concentrations will be similar to what was seen this week – Good, but with some morning hour Moderate concentrations. Overall air quality will be Good, however.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Seasonally normal temperatures and overall weather start off the next work week as air quality remains Good.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, November 27th, 2023

11/20/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: MondAY, November 20, 2023, through FRIDAU, November 24, 2023

PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Happy Thanksgiving to all those who celebrate as we, Michiganders, dive back into seasonably normal temperatures this week after a week of above normal temperatures and overall beautiful weather. Today, Monday, will see temperatures in the upper 30s with relatively cloudy skies for most of the state. A low-pressure system approaches us late tonight through tomorrow which will bring rain for the majority of the state with some mixed precipitation the more north one travels. This precipitation will last essentially all day, but we dry out as Wednesday evening approaches. Once the low-pressure exits to the east early Wednesday morning, a cold front follows behind it which will keep surface temperatures cool and the skies relatively cloudy. Turkey Day (Thursday) will see the continuation of Wednesday weather with mostly cloudy skies and surface temperatures scattered from low-30s to low-40s throughout the state. Northerly winds will dominate this week with some easterly and westerly component mixed in, but the northerly winds will be the reason for a return to seasonably normal temperatures. Friday will see cooler temperatures and cloudier conditions to round off the work week.

Due to the northerly winds, and relatively consistent wind speeds, PM-2.5 concentrations should not be an issue this week. As always, there is a chance of concentration build up in the morning hours due to stagnant conditions, but those conditions will dissipate as the days carry on. Overall PM-2.5 air quality will be on the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

This weekend presents us with more of the same from the work week with slightly cooler temperatures throughout. Overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, November 24, 2023