3/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 13, 2023, through Monday, March 20, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Winter’s grip continues to grasp onto Michigan to start off this week with many areas across the state seeing snow showers waking up this Monday morning. These snow showers should slowly dissipate as the day carries on leaving a few inches in their path. These snow showers are accompanied by northerly winds which will keep temperatures in the mid-20s to low-30s through Tuesday. A change in airmass comes Wednesday as winds shift to more southwesterly flow which will bump temperatures to the upper-30s and low-40s. This airmass lasts through Thursday until yet another system makes its way through the region on Friday. A Low-pressure system comes up from the southwest and will have a mixed batch of precipitation—rain, snow, and possible freezing rain. It is still too far out for true model agreement as models are nowhere near agreement on this system. The north or south trajectory will determine where the rain/snow line sets up, which will become more prominent as the week carries on. The system, as of right now, appears to somewhat stall over the region lasting through Saturday so additional precipitation may accrue due to that, along with winds staying relatively strong. As Sunday approaches, the system moves off to the east, shifting winds back to NNW and bringing colder temperatures back into the region.

In terms of air quality, northerly winds for a big portion of this week will keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay. There may be low-mid Moderate concentrations in the morning hours but will dissipate as each day carries on. The end of the week system will clean out any buildup that occurs and will keep overall air quality Good for the weekend ahead.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight warm up occurs on Monday which will possibly increase PM-2.5 concentrations to the Moderate range for a few hours, but overall air quality will remain Good to start off next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 20th, 2023

3/6/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 6, 2023, through Monday, March 13, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range primarily Good with only small chances for low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure area tracking just south of the state Monday brings snow across central/northern locations and rain chances further south. High pressure then settles in producing dry and cool conditions for a few days. The next system brings mostly snow chances back in the forecast Friday while rain may mix in across southern areas.

As for air quality, Good to low-end Moderate fine particulate levels are anticipated Monday as the low passes to our south. The dominating weather feature then turns to high pressure positioned northwest/north of the state through midweek. Expect northerly winds and mostly Good fine particulate through Thursday. By Friday, easterly winds ahead of the next storm could allow for scattered low-Moderate fine particulate levels, otherwise, readings remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure moving behind the Friday system with dry conditions Saturday into Sunday. Some models are showing the next weather feature bringing precipitation back late Sunday into Monday. Without a stagnant period or warm-up expected, fine particulate should remain mostly Good into early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 13th, 2023

2/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 27, 2023, through Monday, March 6, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate late in the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast week start off messy with another winter system moving through the Midwest.  A warm front to the south causes warm, moist air to override colder Michigan air.  That scenario will yield rain in Southern Michigan, mixed precipitation in the middle, and snow to the north under easterly winds.  While messy, it should not last as long as last week’s winter storm and Air Quality is currently generally Good.

This system should be out of the picture early Tuesday replaced with westerly winds and continued Good Air Quality.  A weaker system is expected to move east into the area late Tuesday night bringing a light accumulation of rain in the south and snow in the middle and north.  Northeasterly winds will follow and more Good Air Quality.

The main event for the forecast period will come in the form of a strong system which will move into the area during Friday.  There is the potential for a significant snowstorm although the potential precipitation type and amount will be determined by the track of the storm.  Currently, the computer models are confining precipitation to the southern half of the state.

If any Low Moderates occur during this forecast period, it will likely occur later in the weekend when wind speeds are low and some stagnation could occur.  But for the most part, Good Air Quality will rule this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 6, 2023

2/21/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday February 21st, 2023, through Monday February 27th, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Unseasonably warm temperatures come to an end this week as a potential winter storm will impact all of Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. The most impactful timeframe will be Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with more ice potential in the southern portions of the state and upwards of 6-10+ inches of snow possible for northern portions of Michigan. This system exits the area Thursday afternoon and leaves a swath of mixed precipitation and temperatures ranging the from upper teens to low 30s depending on the north or south location in Michigan. Accompanying this storm are strong winds with wind gusts upwards of 35 mph predominantly from the northeast. Going into the weekend, High-pressure sets up to our west and then to our east as the weekend carries on. Temperatures hover around the upper-20s and low-30s with shifting south to southwesterly winds. Monday sees a slight warmup with the majority of Michigan above the freezing mark with the help of southeast winds.

In term of air quality, ample winds to start off this week has helped to keep PM2.5 concentrations at bay and in the Good to low-Moderate category. The impending system mid-week will help keep the concentrations at bay even more so, especially with the increase in winds. As winds subside going into the weekend, PM2.5 concentrations will have the chance to increase but a cooler atmosphere will help keep concentrations lower as warmer temperatures and melting of snow does not look to happen until early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

After a slight warmup on Monday, temperatures return to seasonal norms as a frontal boundary comes through early Tuesday morning. Overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday February 21st, 2023

2/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 17, 2023, through Tuesday, February 21, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period begins with Good fine particulate thanks to northerly winds behind the Thursday storm which brought snow across much of the state and also mixed precipitation further south. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature early in the Presidents Day weekend. Cold conditions Friday moderate by Saturday as the high tracks east of the state.

As for air quality, northerly winds Friday switch more southwesterly Saturday. With warmer air moving over the recent snow, we can expect an associated increase in fine particulate levels. Fine particulate should be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range. A weak clipper system tracks north of the state Sunday bringing snow chances further north, but winds should be strong enough to hamper a significant increase in pollution levels. Winds shift northerly for a short time late Sunday/early Monday before decreasing in speed between two weather systems. Since this will not be a prolonged stagnant weather pattern, daily averages of fine particulate should remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weaker system passing to the north Tuesday, then a more active period later in the week. If the timing of the Tuesday system remains on track, chances for snow make a return across the northern portion of the region and a wind shift to the northwest should improve any possible fine particulate buildup. Regardless on how the timing of that system pans out, fine particulate is not expected to reach higher than Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

2/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 13, 2023, through Friday, February 17, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will be Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week begins on a quiet note with dry conditions Monday into Tuesday, then a more active pattern develops. By Tuesday, northerly winds turn southerly ahead of an approaching storm system. The change in direction increases both temperatures and moisture. Associated precipitation holds off until later Tuesday and precipitation should generally be in the form of rain. Warmer temperatures linger Wednesday as the state becomes positioned between two systems. The next storm brings mixed precipitation Thursday. Models show conditions drying out Friday with only some lake effect snow lingering.

As for air quality, northerly winds Monday should keep fine particulate mostly Good. As southerly winds develop Tuesday and moisture moves into the region, levels increase to a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate. This range continues Wednesday into Thursday, but readings improve Friday as northerly winds move in behind the Thursday storm system.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating during the weekend as temperatures warm back into the 40s. Breeze conditions are also expected, and it does not look like long range fine particulate will be a concern but with the Presidents Day holiday next Monday, we will do a forecast update Friday to detail levels through next Tuesday.

Next Forecast update: Friday, February 17, 2023

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

2/6/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 6th, 2023, through Monday, February 13th, 2023

PM-2.5:
24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate during mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure over the upper Midwest will slide eastward during Monday with Air Quality mostly Good.  In its wake, a cold front will advance with strong southerly winds and warming temperatures for late Monday night and early Tuesday.  That front is projected to pass through Michigan during the day Tuesday. 

 High pressure will return for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday.  The best chance for any Low Moderate conditions, during the forecast period, would likely be Wednesday with light southerly winds allowing a buildup of fine particulates.

 A stronger low pressure system invades the area during early Thursday providing a decent amount of mixed precipitation.  As that system exits the area late Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest and any residual fine particulates should be cleaned out returning the state to the Good category.

 Winds are expected to return to a southerly flow during Sunday and Monday.  Winds speeds are expected to be fairly brisk and should keep the atmosphere well mixed.  Most of the state is expected to have Good Air Quality but the occasional Low Moderate could sneak in.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, February 13th, 2023

01/30/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 30th, 2023, through Monday, February 6th, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Recent snow brought the majority of Michigan back into the Winter season with colder temperatures than we have been accustomed to on the way as well.

The first half of the week will see on and off snow flurries with the majority staying to the west along the Lake Michigan shoreline. WNW winds will enhance these lake-effect snow showers which may reach more inland, depending on the strength of the wind. As we approach Wednesday, regional High-pressure sets up to our south which will lighten winds and potentially produce some breaks in the clouds to reveal some sunshine. As the week carries on past Wednesday, a cold front comes through which will drop temperatures into the teens for Friday and Saturday with the help of northerly winds bringing in colder air from up north. These winds shift to more southerly as we go into Sunday which will bring temperatures back into the low-30s for much of the region. These conditions carry into Monday to start off next week right where we leave off at the end of this forecast period.

For air quality, consistently light, shifting winds and a cold atmosphere will help keep inversions from lasting too long and trapping particulate matter near the surface. If an inversion does form, it will be short-lived, but the majority of particulates will be able to vertically disperse. Based on some particulate models, however, there appears to be a chance of regional particulate matter that may hang around for a few days but should not be any worse than Moderate concentrations. Wednesday looks to be the day with the highest potential for widespread Moderate concentrations due to the aforementioned High-pressure system causing stagnant conditions. With the help of the cold front coming through later this week, any build up will eventually dissipate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Early next week shows another cold frontal passage which, again, will help clean out any PM-2.5 buildup. Air quality will remain Good heading into next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, February 6th, 2023

01/23/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 23, 2023, through Monday, January 30, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Good with only scattered Moderate readings through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Northern portions of the state may see some snow Monday into Tuesday, but a quiet start to the week is expected across the rest of the state. A more active pattern develops statewide by mid-week as a winter storm tracks from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Snow makes its way into Michigan Wednesday with highest accumulations in southeastern areas and less further northwest. This is the first of three storms that bring chances for snow through the forecast period. Current models show another system Friday into early Saturday and a third early next week. Cooler temperatures will be brought in behind each as highs trend cooler into the weekend.

As for air quality, mostly Good fine particulate is expected Monday and Tuesday aside from a scattered low-Moderate in southern locations. Good levels can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as gusty easterly winds develop ahead of the storm, switching to northwesterly as it pulls away. Weak high pressure building in late Thursday/early Friday could allow for some low-Moderate fine particulate Friday with weaker winds turning southwesterly; however, any build up will improve to Good Saturday as northerly winds develop behind the late week storm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show another storm passing southeast of the state Sunday. If this system remains on track, fine particulate should remain generally Good through early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 30, 2023

1/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 17, 2023, through Monday, January 23, 2023

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period begins with mild temperatures born on southerly winds in advance of an approaching low pressure system.  Air Quality is currently mostly Good with a scattering of Low Moderates.  As that low pressure system moves northeast, Tuesday evening, winds will shift to a more northwesterly direction.  Air Quality will become all Good, throughout the state, at that time. 

The next system is not far behind.  This stronger system will cause winds to shift to eastly by late Wednesday.  Winds will be brisk, and Air Quality is expected to remain Good.  The system will pass through Michigan late Thursday and strong northwest winds will settle in through Friday.

Winds will remain west to southwest for most of the weekend keeping temperatures cooler and Air Quality Good.

 The models are showing the potential for another low pressure system tracking up through the Ohio Valley late in the weekend.  If that prediction happens, we will see the same progression of easterly winds followed by northwesterly winds late Sunday into Monday.  Air Quality should remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 23rd, 2023

1/09/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday January 9th, 2023, through Monday January 16th, 2023

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some parts of Michigan are starting off the week to the ever-evading sun shining through evergreen branches and leaf-less trees. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as clouds return for much of the region tomorrow and last throughout the forecast period. To start off the week, surface temperatures range from the low-30s to the low-40s across Michigan with light winds hanging around the 5-10 mph range. As we approach Thursday, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front comes through and brings precipitation with it. With surface temperatures scattered across the state, the precipitation will be mixed with rain more so in the south and snow the more north you go. This frontal boundary also increases the winds into the weekend, but quickly calms down Sunday as High-pressure drifts in from the north and south and lasts essentially into next week.

In terms of air quality, with the slight increase in temperature, morning hour inversions will be in place for much of the week until the frontal boundary comes through Thursday into Friday. With the morning hour inversions, PM2.5 concentrations will increase as fine particulates become trapped under the inversion and not able to vertically disperse. These concentrations should decrease as each day carries on but will still more than likely hang around the Moderate range for the better half of the week, with some areas seeing concentrations in the middle-high Moderate range. As mentioned above, when the front passes through and the help of WNW winds, PM concentrations will be cleaned out and kept at bay as long as the wind stays steady.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

There appears to be a slight warmup as we start off next week, with southern Michigan returning to the low-40s. Overall, air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 16th, 2023

1/3/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 3, 2023, through Monday, January 9, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather systems over the region keep cloudy conditions through Thursday. Mild temperatures until midweek allows associated precipitation to be in the form of rain south. Cooler temperatures filter in late Wednesday into Thursday changing rain to snow. Accumulating snow is expected further north, however, little to no accumulation will be seen across central and southern Michigan. Weak high pressure slides in for a short time Friday before another system tracking across the Ohio River Valley brings light precipitation across southern portions of the state Saturday. Behind this system, high pressure settles in from the northwest producing dry conditions.

As for air quality, increased surface moisture helps keep fine particulate in the middle Good to middle Moderate range through Thursday. Winds switch to a northwesterly direction Friday improving air quality to more widespread Good readings. Weak winds Saturday may allow for increases of fine particulate to the Moderate range further south, but northeasterly winds developing late Saturday into Sunday should improve any buildup. Fine particulate late in the week will range from Good to low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating early next week. Weaker winds by Monday could allow for increases in fine particulate, but levels higher than Moderate are not expected.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 9, 2023

12/27/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, December 27, 2022, through Tuesday, January 3, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate through most of the work week then mostly Good through the holiday weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a period of persistent cold weather and ample snow, especially along the West Michigan corridor, we should see a period of thawing temperatures during the current work week and holiday weekend.  While we may see a few breaks in the clouds during Wednesday, it does look like the majority of the forecast period will remain cloudy.  It is likely that by the end of December, most of lower Michigan will have only seen around 10% of potential sunlight for the month.

Wednesday should provide the first above-freezing temperatures, following the current cold snap, courtesy of winds shifting to the south and southwest.  By the end of the week, we should see temperatures around 40 degrees.   While this will likely be welcomed to help melt snow off the back roads, warmer air over snow typically is a good catalyst for producing fine particulates.  Even though a good breeze will help stir things around, I still see the likelihood of Low Moderates in the majority of the Lower Peninsula.

A cold front is expected to pass during Friday, which will give us a wind shift and cleaner air, although temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for the remainder of this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, January 3, 2023

12/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 19, 2022, through Tuesday, December 27, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Tis the Monday before Christmas, and Michigan may be in for a treat later this week. There is growing confidence of impactful snow for the Great Lakes region just days before the Christmas holiday.

To start off the week, however, relatively quiet weather is in store for Michigan as a High-pressure system is influencing the region with light winds and stable atmospheric conditions. This system will give way to a rather weak Low-pressure system to our north Tuesday into Wednesday. Northern Michigan may be more impacted by this system with potential snow showers, but southern Michigan will only feel a drop in temperatures as the frontal boundary traverses through the region. Things become more interesting as we approach the latter half of the week with the potential of a winter storm impacting the Great Lakes region. Model guidance is still being fine-tuned, but confidence is growing for impactful snow and blustery conditions Thursday evening through Saturday. Position and strength of the Low-pressure system will determine the exact amount and location of snowfall, with windy conditions becoming more likely. Due to this system, travel plans will be disrupted and need to be planned accordingly.

After the system passes and the Christmas holiday approaches, temperatures will be nearing the coldest of the season thus far with high temperatures only peaking in the teens in most areas. The strong winds throughout the weekend will drop wind chills to the single digits and even into the below-zero range. Temperatures look to rebound into the mid-20s on Monday with quiet weather returning to start next week with High-pressure in place to our south.

In terms of air quality, in the beginning half of the week, due to the stable conditions, atmospheric inversions are expected for the morning hours and may last into the afternoon. This will allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to rise into the Moderate range for a couple hours before dropping back down to Good, as winds slowly increase throughout each day. Tuesday looks to be the day with the highest potential of PM-2.5 concentrations reaching the Moderate range. The passage of the cold front Tuesday into Wednesday, however, will help to clean out any concentration buildup. As stated above, an increase in winds associated with the system later this week will keep particulate concentrations low and Good through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Breezy conditions last through the beginning of next week, which will help keep overall air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, December 27, 2022

12/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 12, 2022, through Monday, December 19, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet early this week with surface high pressure positioned well north of the region. This does not last, however, as a more active pattern develops by mid-week. Before then, lighter easterly winds should keep fine particulate at bay. Pollution readings ranging from upper Good to low Moderate through Tuesday are expected. Winds turn a bit more southeasterly and moisture increases bringing in chances for precipitation Wednesday. Temperature ranges across the state bring with it ranges of precipitation types; anticipate mostly rain across the south and snow further north. Wind speeds increase as the storm system develops which should keep fine particulate from increasing much past upper Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cold conditions for the week prior to Christmas and there also looks to be a few possibilities for snow showers. Pollution levels into next week should stay consistent in the upper Good to low Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 19, 2022

12/05/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 5, 2022, through Monday December 12, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate for the duration of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Southwest flow over our area, on backside of a surface high that is now located over the mid-Atlantic coast, will bring a gradual increase in moisture/clouds today.  Low pressure moving across Ontario will push a weak cold front through the region this afternoon through Tuesday. Along with increasing clouds today, we will see by a chance of light rain this afternoon as the front moves southeast. 

Once this system passes, expect calm conditions with temperatures at or above average for this time of year.  With increasing stagnant air and increased burning of fuels for heating, we can also expect an increase of fine particulates during mid-week.  It will likely start in Southeast Michigan, because of the increased population base, and spread through the rest of the lower half of the Lower Peninsula.

A stronger system is expected at the end of the work week which should clean out the atmosphere for the remainder of the forecast period. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 12, 2022

11/28/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday November 28th, 2022, through December 5th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a Thanksgiving holiday and weekend of relatively above-average surface temperatures, Michigan will see temperatures return to seasonal averages this week. Classic November weather is expected in the beginning half of this week with temperatures in the 40s and mostly cloudy skies. This pattern is disrupted Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region bringing windy conditions and dropping high temperatures to the mid-to-upper 20s throughout the state. Along with this cold front, mixed precipitation is possible with lake-effect snow on the table as well. Compared to what was seen a couple weeks ago with lake-effect snow, this event will be minimal with only an inch or two of snow being predicted in the Great Lakes snowbelts. The blustery conditions calm down throughout the day on Thursday, but temperatures hover around freezing, however.

Behind the aforementioned cold front, a High-pressure system drifts in from the south and remains in the Ohio River valley, but still influences our winds. Later in the week, winds will shift to more SSE bringing warmer temperatures from the south. This increase in temperatures will be short-lived as yet another cold front passes through on Saturday, dropping temperatures back to around freezing. Blustery conditions return as well, and temperatures hang around the freezing mark to end the weekend.

In terms of air quality, morning hour inversions will continue throughout the week. With the help of the passing cold fronts, the inversions should not pose a threat to an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. There appears to be an inversion this morning, Monday, that will persist into the afternoon, but as winds increase, the inversion will dissipate. Over the holiday weekend, there was enough air dispersion, so particulates did not build up as much. We suspect this will be the case for this forecast period due to the passing frontal boundaries and increase in winds throughout the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures look to rebound to start next week before another cold front approaches next Tuesday into Wednesday. Overall air quality will be Good to start next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday December 5th, 2022

11/21/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 21st, 2022, through Monday, November 28th, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Moderate this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quite weather conditions are in store early this week, but after the snowfall from last week and this past weekend you can expect a climb in fine particulate levels thanks to warmer air/winds flowing over the snowpack. This fine particulate increase is typical after a snowfall when snow then melts creating increased surface moisture over the region. Stronger winds Monday should help levels stay in the Good to low Moderate range; however, as weak high pressure settles in through mid-week producing lighter winds, fine particulate will continue increasing. While hourly concentrations, mostly in the early to late-morning, may reach USG we anticipate daily averages to stay in the middle to upper Moderate range through Wednesday. A cold front is expected to pass later Thanksgiving (Thursday) which should help clear out some of the build-up by Friday. If fine particulate levels increase faster than anticipated where we feel an Action Day is warranted, then this forecast will be updated.

Aside from chances for precipitation late on Thanksgiving into Friday, quite conditions are anticipated. Current forecast models are keeping the next weather system south of the state and over the Ohio valley this coming weekend. If this storm tracks further north, then precipitation could reach lower Michigan Sunday. Temperatures through this period look to be mild for this time of year and lighter winds will be in place, especially Saturday into early Sunday. Because of this, daily Moderate fine particulate will continue over much of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a wind shift to the north as the weekend system moves east of the region. If this storm track pans out, fine particulate should improve early next week, but if this shift does not occur, generally Moderate levels will continue.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach

Next forecast update: Monday, November 28, 2022

11/14/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 14th, 2022, through Monday, November 21st, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good for the duration of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This week promises to have the coldest sustained temperatures of the season, to date.  Along with the cold temperatures, expect mostly cloudy conditions and a persistent threat of snow show showers, especially along the western lake shore.

 There will be several opportunities for winter weather, this week.  An upper level low over lower Canada will have the majority influence on our weather Tuesday through Wednesday.  With the cold temperatures, I expect any precipitation, this week, will come in the form of snow showers.

A cold air mass with brisk westerly winds will drop southward by Thursday to bring a continued chance of snow through Friday, especially along the western lake shore.

 The saga continues into the weekend as another system swings through with some associated snow and more lake enhanced snow.

 The good news is that Air Quality is expected to the be Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood

Next forecast update: Monday, November 21, 2022

11/7/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, November 7th, 2022, through Monday, November 14th, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan will see a whirlwind of surface temperatures this upcoming week as above-average temperatures continue through the majority of this week. The rapid change in temperature comes Friday as a Low-pressure system and relatively strong cold front traverses through the region. Temperatures will drop to somewhat below average temperatures with surface high temperatures barely eclipsing the 40-degree mark in most areas over the weekend.

To start off the week, however, temperatures remain in the 50s with breezy conditions throughout the state due to the NNW flow that is in place. Temperatures continue to climb through Thursday where 70-degree surface temperatures are possible in some southern portions of the state. Winds shift to a more southerly flow Tuesday evening which will provide the above-average temperatures to most of Michigan. As we carry on through Thursday and into Friday, the aforementioned Low-pressure and cold front enters the region from the west bringing precipitation in some areas and windy conditions throughout the state. Lower surface temperatures and breezy conditions will last through the weekend and into next week.

For air quality, PM-2.5 will be in the Good to low-Moderate range with possible higher concentrations in the morning hours due to low-level inversions. For much of this week, however, winds should be steady enough to dissipate inversions and the build up of PM-2.5 concentrations throughout the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Below-average temperatures stick around to start off next week along with NNW breezy conditions. This will help keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay to start next week.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, November 14th, 2022