10/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 31st, 2022, through Monday, November 7th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday is the last day in October which means its Halloween, but it also marks the last day of forecasting ozone for the 2022 season. Cloudy and damp conditions are currently in place across the southern half of the state where scattered showers are possible Monday. After the current system passes through, high pressure moves in with dry and warmer than normal temperatures expected. The next chance for precipitation comes Friday in the northwest as a boundary approaches from the west.

As for air quality, being later in the season, ozone will remain Good, and as stated above, this will be the last ozone forecast until spring of 2023. Fine particulate has been averaging Moderate across much of the state Monday, and moisture associated with the system moving across southeastern areas will keep Moderate readings across lower Michigan. High pressure builds in for the next few days keeping winds on the lighter side. Without a decent wind shift from the Monday system, fine particulate lingering in the Moderate range is likely, especially in southern more urban locations. The anticipated fine particulate range the rest of the workweek will be from upper Good to middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show wind speeds picking up from the south later in the period. There is some uncertainty on the timing of a cold front passing the state later in the weekend. Warmer conditions continue and unless a boundary moves through producing an airmass change, we expect fine particulate to remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie Hengesbach

Next forecast update: Monday, November 7th, 2022

10/24/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 24, 2022, through Monday October 31, 2022

OZONE:

8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good.

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate early in the week, transitioning to Good by midweek.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

It is always a joy when Indian Summer and Michigan peak color change occur at the same time. The warmer weather and clear skies did trigger some ozone creep into the low 60 ppb range during Saturday and in the 50’s during Sunday.  That is higher than normal, for this time of year, but did not cause any additional damage to our ozone attainment design values.  PM-2.5 values are also currently running in the Moderate range, which may be due to some overhead smoke filtering down.

Monday and Tuesday will be the last days of the warmer weather.  A slow-moving front, just west of the Mississippi River, at the time of this Monday morning forecast, will continue to track eastward.  Shower activity is likely during Tuesday as this front approaches.  As the front progresses across Michigan, Wednesday morning, expect a wind shift from southerly to northwesterly.  High pressure and clearing skies will settle in behind the front for late week and the weekend yielding daily high temperatures in the 50’s and nighttime lows in the upper 30’s.  Perhaps perfect weather for football and Halloween weekend activities?

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Although we are losing our Indian Summer by midweek, Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good after Tuesday.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood. Next Forecast update is on Monday, October 31st, 2022.

10/17/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 17th, 2022, through Friday October 21st, 2022

OZONE:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good for the forecast period.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Early season snow will impact some parts of Michigan to start off this week. Areas north of mid-Michigan will experience some accumulation with areas south possibly seeing a few flakes here and there. This is due to a rather strong Low-pressure system and associated cold front making its way through the region through Tuesday evening. The first half of the week will see surface temperatures in the 30s to 40s with on and off precipitation along with overcast skies for the most part. As we approach Thursday, however, skies start to clear, and temperatures start to rebound back to the 50s in most areas. Once the Low-pressure exits the area, winds shift to more SSW which will bring in warmer air from the south along with breezy conditions.

In terms of air quality, due to the Low-pressure and cold front, both Ozone and PM-2.5 concentrations will not be of issue during the first half of the week with conditions in the Good range. As we approach the latter half of the week, there may be some low-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations, but I do not expect any long-standing conditions due to the breezy conditions both Thursday and Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The breezy conditions continue through the weekend keeping Ozone and PM-2.5 conditions at bay.

Forecast updated by Alec Kownacki. Next Forecast update is on Friday October 21st, 2022.

10/14/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, October 14th, 2022, through Monday, October 17th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool temperatures and on and off showers pretty much sums up the forecast for this weekend into early next week. This can be attributed to low pressure dominating conditions and disturbances moving through will also enhance precipitation from time to time. Parts of the state may see the first snowflakes of the season as temperatures may fall enough for snow to mix in with rain showers.

As for air quality, hourly fine particulate may reach Moderate at southern locations during the morning hours; however, any increase will fall during the late morning, and fine particulate is expected to range Good through the weekend. Ozone will also average Good thanks to clouds and cool temperatures.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cool to cold conditions lingering through mid-week next week. With that, generally Good air quality is anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Monday, October 17th, 2022

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

10/11/2022 Forecaset Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 10th, 2022, through Friday, October 14th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate Monday and Tuesday, with Good levels the rest of the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A nice fall day is in store Monday which will last into part of Tuesday; however, the next system is approaching from the west. This system lifts a warm front north producing a strong southwesterly wind Tuesday which could allow temperatures to reach close to 70 degrees. Precipitation can also be expected to travel southwest to northeast later in the day. An associated cold front passes west to east Wednesday keeping showers and storms in the forecast. By Thursday, northwesterly winds behind the boundary ushers in cooler temperatures and the northwesterly flow brings in the possibility of scattered lake effect showers.

As for air quality, fine particulate will be the driving pollutant during the forecast period. Lighter winds Monday, and increased moisture on a southwest wind Tuesday could cause scattered low Moderate concentrations, generally across the southern portion of the state. Precipitation Wednesday and expected northerly winds behind the front keeps fine particulate levels generally Good Wednesday through Friday. Even though surface temperatures increase Tuesday and southwesterly wind develop, cooler upper-level and surface temperatures, coupled with the earlier sunset this time of year, will keep ozone concentrations Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating south of the state while a boundary may keep precipitation around across the north. Regardless, conditions should be active enough in the long term to keep pollution levels mostly Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday, October 14th, 2022

10/07/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday October 7th, 2022, through Monday October 10th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Earlier in the week, Michigan was riddled with atmospheric inversions which essentially “capped” the ability for vertical movement in the atmosphere. This caused numerous mornings to have moderate to USG-level PM-2.5 concentrations. The concentrations only last for a few hours until winds picked up in the early afternoon, but it is worth noting the cause of the high concentrations. For this weekend, Michigan will start out cooler than we were this past week thanks to northerly flow brought in by a cold front that traversed the region Thursday evening. There may be some leftover lake-effect rain showers up and down the coast of Michigan throughout the day Friday, but this gives way to a high-pressure system to our west. Saturday warms up slightly with more surface temperatures in the low-50s mainly due to westerly flow. Sunday continues the trend of slight warming with some surface temperatures reaching the low-60s with WNW winds. There appears to be a weak frontal boundary setting up to pass through Sunday, but this will not cause any disturbances to the forecasted surface temperatures and relative sunshine. Once the frontal boundary passes, a high-pressure sets up over us providing ample sunshine and light winds.

In terms of air quality, Ozone continues to be a non-issue due to seasonally cooler temperatures and lack of strong sunlight that we typically see in the early-to-mid summer months. As stated above, PM-2.5 concentrations were interesting this week due to stagnant conditions from atmospheric inversions in the morning hours. This weekend does not look like it will have those same morning hour high concentrations as light surface winds will be prominent through each day, but there may be some low-Moderates hanging around for a few hours. These concentrations will be cleaned out with the passing of the weak frontal boundary Sunday evening.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The week starts out with high-pressure over the region providing Good air quality.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, October 10th, 2022

10/03/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday October 3rd, 2022, through Friday October 7th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will mostly be in the Good range for the forecast period with some possible low-Moderate concentrations near the middle of the period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations will range from Good to Moderate for this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some areas around Michigan woke up to frost and fog this Monday morning as stagnant conditions remain in place. Regional high-pressure will stick around the Midwest until Thursday when a low-pressure system and associated cold front traverses through the region. The beginning half of the week will remain dry and relatively sunny thanks to the aforementioned high-pressure, with surface temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s. These temperatures are aided by clear skies and SSW winds. Once the low-pressure comes through on Thursday late-morning, temperatures will start to drop with Friday surface temperatures only reaching the upper 40s mostly due to NNW winds and overcast skies. Along with cooler temperatures, rain may accompany the overcast skies throughout Michigan.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will be Good this week with possible hourly values in the Moderate range. As mentioned above, SSW winds and sunny skies will allow for some Ozone development to occur. These concentrations quickly dissipate as the low-pressure and cold front come through the region in the latter half of the week. For PM-2.5, stagnant atmospheric conditions in the beginning half of the week will allow for particulate matter to accrue in the morning hours. Concentrations will diminish with the help of light winds throughout the day, but there may be some Moderate concentrations for a couple hours each day. Smoke models show the possibility of smoke being present in the region this week but should not pose any threat for large quantities of concentrations. Overall, 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good with the possibility of a few low-Moderates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Cooler temperatures stick around through the weekend with surface temperatures in the 50s with the return of high-pressure to our south. Overall air quality should remain Good.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Friday, October 7th, 2022

09/29/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 29th, 2022, through Monday, October 3rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be in the Good range for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations will be in the Good to low-Moderate range for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High-pressure hangs around the region for much of the latter half of this week and into the weekend. Come Saturday afternoon, the current high-pressure exits the area which gives way to yet another high-pressure to our north in Ontario, Canada. The passing of these two pressure systems will allow clouds to come and go throughout the forecast period. The high-pressure entering the region on Saturday, somewhat forces a developing frontal boundary southward across Michigan Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The frontal boundary will have minimal impacts on weather and overall air quality. Due to the high-pressure regime this upcoming weekend, winds will predominantly be ENE with occasional shifts to southerly flow. With the intermittent sunshine, surface temperatures will eclipse the 70-degree mark in areas across Michigan this weekend.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will be of no concern during this forecast period mainly due to wind direction and seasonal surface temperatures. PM2.5 concentrations will overall be in the Good range but will have some hourly concentrations in the low-Moderate range. With high-pressure in place, morning hours will have little-to-no-wind which will allow for PM2.5 concentrations to increase. These concentrations will dissipate as the days carry on and winds increase due to surface warming.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Going into next week, high-pressure continues to hang around which will allow for overall Good air quality.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, October 3rd, 2022

09/26/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, September 26th, 2022, through Thursday, September 29th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Fall has arrived in Michigan, and we will really feel the Fall-like weather for the beginning half of this week. A Low-pressure system drifted in over the weekend and is currently sitting to our northeast over Canada. Along with this low-pressure, an accompanied cold front is stationary over the Upper Peninsula currently as well. The low-pressure and cold front will essentially sit over the region until Wednesday morning as a High-pressure is expected to break the pattern and force the low-pressure out of the area. With the current system in place, general cloudiness and on and off rain is expected through Wednesday, but sunshine returns Thursday with the help of the aforementioned High-pressure system.

In terms of air quality, the cooler temperatures and general cloudiness will inhibit the production of Ozone across the region. Also, unfavorable winds predominantly from the NNW will keep Ozone development at bay. PM-2.5 is expected to be in Good category for the forecast period as smoke forecast models do not pick up on any near-surface smoke concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecasts show that we will be under the influence of High-pressure for much of the weekend ahead. This will keep air quality conditions in the Good range.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Thursday September 29th, 2022

09/23/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 23rd, 2022, through Monday, September 26th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure holds on one more day, Friday, with sunny skies but cool temperatures. The cool temperature trend continues into the weekend; however, on and off precipitation comes in the forecast thanks to a frontal boundary Saturday then an upper-level low dominating through early next week.

As for air quality, cool temperatures hamper any ozone development with readings averaging Good. Southerly winds develop for a time later Friday, early Saturday which could allow for low-Moderate fine particulate, generally in the southeast. After the boundary passes an upper-level low lingers over the region. Northerly winds and on and off precipitation will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cooler conditions and on and off showers until mid-week. With the expected forecast, air quality levels will remain Good through the period.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Friday, September 23, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, September 26, 2022

09/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, September 19th, 2022, through Friday, September 23rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with scattered Moderates through Wednesday. Good levels are anticipated the rest of the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to Moderate until mid-week with Good levels through Friday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure dominates weather conditions Monday producing mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. This trend continues into Tuesday, but temperatures will be a bit higher than Monday as northerly winds from Monday change to a southerly direction. Late Tuesday, early Wednesday precipitation comes into the forecast as a weather system approaches and the associated front passes through. Conditions dry out for the latter half of the week; however cool air settles in. Highs Thursday and Friday will range from the upper 50s to low 60s.

As for air quality, Good ozone and fine particulate on Monday may increase to a mix of Good and low Moderate on Tuesday. A few Moderate levels of ozone and/or fine particulate may linger into Wednesday, however, the frontal boundary Wednesday brings a clean airmass in its wake. Good pollution levels are anticipated for the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show generally dry and cooler conditions as we progress into the weekend. Pollution levels should remain Good through the period.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Monday, September 19, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, September 23rd, 2022

9/16/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday September 16, 2022, through Monday September 19, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with a chance of Moderate along the west lake shore.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We should see a very pleasant weekend with warmer days and nights.  Saturday will be the better of the weekend days until mostly clear skies.  Southwest winds will push some ozone over Lake Michigan and could impact some of out monitors.  However, with the lateness of the season, it is difficult to believe it could get any worse than Moderate.

Rain chances increase Sunday and Sunday night with a slight chance Saturday night ahead of an incoming cold front.  Clouds and shower potential should keep things in the Good range for the rest of the weekend.  

The weather, in the wake of the cold front that moves through Monday morning, looks to be cooler and dry for the latter half of Monday through Tuesday morning with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, September 16, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, September 19, 2022

9/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday September 12, 2022, through Friday September 16, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good with a chance of Moderate by the weekend.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An occluded front has been lingering over the Lake Michigan area bringing Sunday showers and Monday cloudiness.  We will continue to see lingering clouds and shower potential through Tuesday when this system finally departs the area to the northeast.

The remainder of the work week looks very similar to last week with predominantly clear skies, gradually warming days, and cool nights.  Air Quality should remain Good for the remainder of the work week although the warming days will cause a gradual creep in ozone values, each day.

 By the end of the work week and the weekend, winds will be predominantly southwest.  As such, it is possible that ozone concentrations could creep into the Moderate range during the weekend.  While it is unusual to see USG conditions this time of year, it is possible as demonstrated by Wisconsin as a couple of their monitors crept over during the last weekend.  Therefore, it would be wise to take another look at the potential weekend values, Friday morning, and update this forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 12, 2022. Next forecast update: Friday, September 16, 2022

9/08/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday September 8, 2022, through Monday September 12, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good with a chance of Moderate during Friday.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure has settled over Michigan providing clear skies, low winds, and chilly nights which should persist through Saturday.  As the high pressure slides eastward during Thursday, light northerly winds will slowly begin veering southwesterly causing a slight uptick in ozone values during Friday.  While I expect to see a creep in Friday ozone, I do not expect anything worse than Moderate because of shorter days and cooler nights.

Saturday could be a repeat of Friday except for an approaching low pressure system which should start bringing in clouds Saturday afternoon.  This slow moving system will impact our weather for the remainder of the weekend with the added potential for heavy rain and cooler temperatures during Monday.  Air Quality during this time will be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Thursday, September 8, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, September 12, 2022

9/06/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday September 6, 2022, through Thursday September 8, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with an increasing chance of Moderate by the end of the week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Tuesday should be the gloomiest day of the forecast period because of clouds from a low-pressure system down in the Ohio Valley which continues to affect our area.  As that system progresses eastward, a high-pressure ridge to our west will slowly migrate towards the state. The positioning of that approaching ridge will provide clear skies and northerly winds through mid-week and Good Air Quality.  There will be a slight warming trend under daytime sunny skies, but the same clear skies will also give us good radiational cooling at night.

The center of the high-pressure should settle over the state during Thursday bringing calm conditions and a slow transition to southeast winds.  There could be the beginning of a slight uptick in ozone values and fine particulates, during Thursday, where stagnation could be a problem. 

Friday will likely have the best chance for any ozone concentration increase because of sunny skies and more southerly winds.  Fortunately, the lateness of the season, low dew points, and cool nighttime temperatures should make the risk of elevated ozone low.  Since there is the slight possibility of some elevated ozone, I will update this forecast on Thursday.

The risk should decrease during Saturday as an approaching cold front will cause increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, September 6, 2022. Next forecast update: Thursday, September 8, 2022

9/2/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 2nd, 2022, through Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

OZONE: :8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Surface high pressure holds on for most of Friday, but a frontal boundary is forecast to track northwest to southeast through the state later Friday into Saturday. Precipitation with this boundary will be scattered in nature so Saturday will not be a washout. Cooler temperatures move in Sunday and Monday as high pressure settles in from the northwest.

As for air quality, warm conditions at the surface and upper levels Friday and Saturday make increased ozone a possibility; however, cloud cover in more pronounced which will hamper development. Generally Moderate ozone is anticipated both days. Warmer conditions and southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary could increase fine particulate into the Moderate range as well. Northerly winds Sunday into the Labor Day holiday should keep air quality mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show generally dry conditions into Tuesday with temperatures increasing on southerly winds. While significant increases in pollution is not anticipated, ozone and/or fine particulate may rise back into the Moderate range.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, September 2nd, 2022

Next forecast update: Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

9/1/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 1st, 2022, through Friday, September 2nd, 2022

OZONE: :8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

High pressure dominating conditions will produce plenty of sunshine for the end of the workweek. Along with sunny skies, temperatures increase into the 80s across most of the region. Lighter winds Thursday pick up some from the south/southwest Friday as the high slides east of the region. With the warmer conditions comes an uptick in air quality levels.

As for air quality, we are coming off a low background so while increases in ozone are anticipated, 8-hour averages are not expected to reach higher than Moderate Thursday. Winds switch to more of a southerly component Friday; however, models are not showing significant rises in ozone. Also, we are in the later portion of the season where UGS ozone is less common. While there is always a chance an isolated monitor may reach low-end USG, Moderate readings are more likely. An increase in fine particulate is also possible with Good levels increasing to more widespread Moderates by Friday.

There is some question on a boundary sinking in late in the week that may or may not bring precipitation. We will do another update Friday to further detail air quality conditions for the Labor Day weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show warm conditions continuing into the Labor Day holiday. What is uncertain is precipitation chances, but at this time it doesn’t not look like widespread precipitation is expected. Air quality will likely range mostly Moderate into early next week.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Thursday, September 1st, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, September 2nd, 2022

8/29/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 29th, 2022, through Thursday, September 1st, 2022

OZONE: : 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Good to low-Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A cold front passing west to east through the state Monday will bring showers, storms, and a west/northwesterly wind in its wake. Conditions dry out Tuesday with high pressure producing seasonable conditions through midweek. High pressure is positioned east of the state by Friday with high temperatures warming around 80 degrees.

As for air quality, clouds and storms will keep air quality Good Monday. This Good trend should continue into midweek thanks to a westerly/northwesterly flow at the surface and upper levels, coupled with cooler/seasonable temperatures. By Friday, southerly winds develop, and surface and upper-level temperatures increase. Without an airmass change, rises in ozone and/or fine particulate are likely. At this time readings higher than Moderate are not expected; however, the forecast will be evaluated again Thursday to get a better handle on air quality conditions for Friday into the coming Holiday weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weak boundary passing later Friday/early Saturday; however, not much precipitation is associated with the system. At this time a generally dry weekend is anticipated, and warming temperatures could allow for increased pollution.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, August 29th, 2022

Next forecast update: Thursday, September 1st, 2022

8/26/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 26, 2022, through Monday August 29, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The Monday forecast was concerned with the potential for elevated ozone during the weekend.  That concern has been greatly reduced with the latest round of model runs.

Following an overnight frontal passage, Friday should provide clearing skies under northerly winds and Good Air Quality as high pressure moves over the state.  That trend should continue through Saturday with clear skies and pleasant weather. 

As the high pressure moves off during Sunday, we should see winds shift from southeast to southerly.  An advancing trough of low pressure will generate increasing cloudiness from west to east during the day.  With the shorter hours of sunlight, that should be enough to reduce the risk of elevated ozone although we will probably get into the Moderate range in Southeast Michigan. 

As that front continues to approach during Monday, showers and thunderstorms become more likely and the potential for heavy rains increase.  Air Quality should remain Good during this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 26, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, August 29, 2022

8/22/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 22, 2022, through Friday August 26, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

With high pressure continuing to move into the area on Monday, a mostly quieter, drier, and slightly warmer weather pattern will prevail over the next couple of days.  Prevailing northerly winds should keep our Air Quality Good through Tuesday.  By Wednesday, increasing temperatures will range from lower-80s to mid-80s.  Coupled with the dew points in the lower 60s and mostly clear skies, it will make for some pretty nice weather.  However, nearly calm winds could allow for some urban areas to see ozone increases into the Moderate range.

By Thursday, a cool front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and increased chances for showers and few thunderstorms on Thursday through Thursday night.  Another, ridge of high pressure begins to move into the region Friday bringing a return to drier and slightly warmer weather for the area for the weekend.

Along with the predicted warmer weather, the models are showing a return to good southern flow and the potential for some elevated ozone if the skies remain clear during the weekend.  The cloud models are not consistent, at this time, so I will be reviewing and updating this forecast on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 22, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, August 26, 2022