6/02/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 2, 2023, through Monday, June 5, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Moderate and USG Friday, with reading between Good and Moderate the rest of the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate through the period should range Good to low Moderate.

 

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 2nd...

THE ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST and central MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BARRY... BENZIE… berrien… BRANCH... CALHOUN... CASS… CLINTON... EATON... GRAND TRAVERSE... HILLSDALE... INGHAM... IONIA... JACKSON... KALAMAZOO... KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON... Oceana… ottawa… MASON… ST JOSEPH AND van buren COUNTIES

IN Southeast MICHIGAN:

GENESEE... LAPEER... LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… SHIAWASSEE... WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Hot, dry conditions end the workweek, along with another day of increased ozone levels. Thursday resulted in two monitors reaching USG along the western lakeshore and another six in central and eastern portions of the state. Increased ozone is likely again today (Friday), and we have a Clean Air Action Day in place covering the southern half of lower Michigan, extending north along the western shoreline counties up to Traverse City.

For the rest of the forecast period, a weak front sinks northwest to southeast through the state Saturday. This boundary brings some clouds and small chances for precipitation, along with a surface and upper-level wind shift to the east/northeast. Cooler surface and upper-level temperatures also settle in later Saturday and more so Sunday. While warmer surface temperatures remain in place Saturday, we feel clouds, scattered precipitation and winds shifting in direction will hamper a significant increase in ozone. Therefore, we are not continuing the Clean Air Action Day into Saturday and are forecasting Moderate ozone. We will, however, keep track of conditions and if areas start increasing where we feel USG may be reached, the forecast will be updated to USG triggering EnviroFlash notification for individuals signed up to receive them.

Cooler temperatures settling in Sunday should keep ozone in the Good to low Moderate range. By Monday, another stronger front sinks south through the state. This boundary brings clouds and more of an airmass clean out, but the downfall is there isn’t much precipitation associated with it. While areas could use some rain, this system will bring in cleaner air with ozone levels expected to range from Good to low Moderate.

Fine particulate levels should see a bit of improvement during the weekend, especially in the southeast where readings have been Moderate all week. Reading through the weekend are expected to range Good to low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

High pressure settles in from Canada later Monday into Tuesday. Cooler temperatures and northeasterly winds should keep pollution no higher than low Moderate.

Next Forecast update: Monday, June 5, 2023. Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach

6/01/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, June 1, 2023, through Friday, June 2, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Moderate and USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate should remain mostly Moderate.

 

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 1ST AND FRIDAY, JUNE 2nd...

THE ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST and central MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BARRY... BENZIE… berrien… BRANCH... CALHOUN... CASS… CLINTON... EATON... GRAND TRAVERSE... HILLSDALE... INGHAM... IONIA... JACKSON... KALAMAZOO... KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON... Oceana… ottawa… MASON… ST JOSEPH AND van buren COUNTIES

IN Southeast MICHIGAN:

GENESEE... LAPEER... LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… SHIAWASSEE... WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current forecast trend continues as we move towards the end of the workweek. High pressure remains in place providing summer-like heat. Higher moisture levels in the western portion of the state may allow for scattered shower/storm development again Thursday afternoon, most generally in the western portion of the state near the afternoon/evening lake breeze. A lighter southeasterly flow Thursday switches to more of an easterly direction Friday. A light wind flow persists at upper levels and temperatures remain at readings conducive for ozone development.

Ozone was not worse than upper Moderate Wednesday, but many locations reported a few hours in the USG range with 8-hour averages not far from the USG threshold. Without a significant weather change to improve ozone conditions, we are continuing the Clean Air Action Day into Friday. The Action Day covers the southern half of lower Michigan, along with the west lakeshore counties further north towards Traverse City.

Fine particulate levels during the week have been mostly low to middle Moderate, and we anticipate readings remaining in that range the rest of the week.

Weather maps are hinting at a weak boundary Saturday. This system will not bring much, if any, precipitation, however, surface temperatures should be closer to normal and cooler upper-level temperatures move towards the region. This will hopefully aid in decreasing ozone concentrations. This forecast will be updated Friday to better detail expected weekend pollution levels.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Moderate, with possible USG this coming weekend into early next week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, June 2, 2023

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M Hengesbach. Thursday, June 01, 2023

5/31/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, May 31, 2023, through Thursday, june 1, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Moderate and USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate should remain upper Good to low Moderate.

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MAY 31st AND THURSDAY JUNE 1ST...

 

THE ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST AND CENTRAL MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BARRY... BENZIE… BERRIEN… BRANCH... CALHOUN... CASS… CLINTON... EATON... GRAND TRAVERSE... HILLSDALE... INGHAM... IONIA... JACKSON... KALAMAZOO... KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON... OCEANA… OTTAWA… MASON… ST JOSEPH AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN:

GENESEE... LAPEER... LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… SHIAWASSEE... WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Summer-like heat continues over the state thanks to high pressure remaining in control. Increased moisture Wednesday and Thursday will allow for some cloud development during the afternoon along with a few pop-up showers or storms mostly in west Michigan along the lake breeze. Winds Friday look to switch to more of an easterly component; however, even with a change in wind direction the trend of warm temperatures and dry conditions continues.

Ozone in the USG range was seen Tuesday at some western lakeshore and a few central monitors. While 8-hour averages in much of the state stayed Moderate, averages were not far from the USG threshold and a few hours with concentrations in the USG range were seen. Some afternoon clouds and isolated precipitation may hamper ozone development in a few locations Wednesday and Thursday; however, much of the state will remain dry and mostly sunny. Considering we are under the same airmass for several days now and we’ve already seen increased pollution in many locations, we have decided to continue the Clean Air Action Day into Thursday. Also, since inland monitors have seen increases recently, we are extending the Action Day Thursday to encompass the southcentral portion of the state, including the cities of Lansing, Jackson, and Hillsdale.

Air Quality levels will be monitored during the day and if any forecast area not in the current Action Day look to exceed the USG threshold, the forecast will be updated from Moderate to USG triggering EnviroFlash notifications.

Fine particulate levels during the week have been ranging between upper Good and low Moderate. We anticipate increases in fine particulate as well, however, levels should not reach higher than low to middle Moderate.

The same airmass remains over the region until the coming weekend. Since the threat for increased ozone continues through the week, this air quality forecast will be updated daily until the threat ceases.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Moderate to USG through the coming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Thursday, June 1, 2023

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M Hengesbach. Wednesday, May 31, 2023

5/30/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, May 30, 2023, through Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Moderate and USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate should remain upper Good to low Moderate.

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY MAY 30th AND WEDNESDAY MAY 31st...

 

THE ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BENZIE… berrien… CASS… GRAND TRAVERSE... KALAMAZOO... KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON... Oceana… ottawa… MASON… ST JOSEPH AND van buren COUNTIES

IN Southeast MICHIGAN:

GENESEE... LAPEER... LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… WASHTENAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather forecast remains on track with dry conditions and above normal temperatures continuing through the week. Increased moisture the next couple of days could trigger very isolated showers/storms Wednesday or Thursday, but the chances for precipitation are very small and almost not worth mentioning.

As anticipated, ozone levels have been on an upward trend over the past few days and weather conditions yesterday resulted in 13 monitors reaching the USG range. With surface and upper-level temperatures increasing and winds taking on more of a southerly component, the trend of increased ozone will continue. There is an Air Quality Action Day for ozone in place for today (Tuesday) across the west Michigan lakeshore counties and for the southeast portion of the state. We are continuing this Action Day into tomorrow (Wednesday) and a few counties have been added to include the cities of Kalamazoo, Flint, and the surrounding areas.

Air Quality levels will be monitored during the day, and if any areas not in the current Action Day look to exceed the USG threshold, the forecast will be updated from Moderate to USG triggering EnviroFlash notifications.

Fine particulate levels have been ranging between upper Good and low Moderate. We anticipate increases in fine particulate as well, however, levels should not reach higher than low to middle Moderate through the period.The same airmass remains over the region until the coming weekend. With that, expected increasing temperature, humidity, and stagnation through the period. Since the threat for increased ozone continues through the week, this air quality forecast will be updated daily until the threat ceases.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Moderate to USG through the coming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday, May 31, 2023.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M Hengesbach. Tuesday, May 30, 2023

5/29/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, may 29, 2023, through tuesday, may 30, 2023

OZONE:  8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly high Moderate inland with the potential for USG along the lakeshore and Southeast Michigan.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

In terms of weather, the forecast has not changed from yesterday’s forecast…  The current dry weather and increasing temperature/humidity regime will continue through most of the upcoming week with no rain in sight. 

So far, our Air Quality has been mostly Moderate except one monitor in the Thumb region reaching USG, yesterday.  Sunday’s temperatures finally crossed into the lower 80’s and will continue to increase, every day, this week.  Dew points have been dry, in the 40-50 degree range, but will begin to increase, Tuesday, as winds become more southerly.

The models have been indicating that our Air Quality should stay mostly in the high Moderate range.  However, the concentrations have been increasing, each day of this weather pattern, and most of the stations in the state fell only a few ppb short of reaching the USG threshold, yesterday.  As such, I will side with caution and issue an Action Day Advisory for Tuesday for both the lakeshore counties and Southeast Michigan.  On these marginal high ozone days, actions taken by individuals could mean the difference between crossing into USG or staying Moderate.

I will be monitoring our Air Quality, today, and if any of our monitor stations looks to exceed the USG threshold, I will update their status to trigger EnviroFlash notifications.

Since we will be under the same air mass until the weekend, I expect each day to be a little worse than the last with the increasing temperature, humidity, and stagnation.  We typically do not issue Action Day Advisories two days in advance, therefore we will revisit and update this forecast Tuesday morning. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Moderate to USG through the work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Monday, May 29, 2023

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, May 30, 2023

5/28/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: SUNday, may 28, 2023, through MONday, may 29, 2023

OZONE:  8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate with the slight potential for scattered USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current dry weather and increasing temperatures regime will continue through most of the upcoming week with no rain in sight.  Fortunately, our Air Quality is holding with readings in the Moderate range for both ozone and fine particulates.  Temperatures have been in the upper 70’s and dew points in the 40’s.  Sunday’s temperatures should finally cross into the lower 80’s and continue to increase, every day, this week.  Dew points should continue to stay in the dry, 40-50 degree range through Monday then start an increase into more humid air. 

The models are indicating that our Air Quality should stay in the Moderate range through Memorial Day.  There is the slight possibility that our monitor in the southwest corner of the state could creep near the USG range.  Areas west of downwind Detroit, like Ypsilanti, may see the same with the east winds.  But there is not enough evidence, yet, to justify an Action Day.  That said, I will be monitoring our Air Quality today and tomorrow, and if any of our monitor stations looks to exceed the USG threshold, I will update their status to trigger EnviroFlash notifications.

Since we will be under the same air mass for days to come, I expect each day to be a little worse than the last with the increasing stagnation.  Once we hit USG concentration levels, it will likely remain and worsen until the next frontal cleanout, which may not occur until next weekend.  As such, I will be updating this forecast Monday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Moderate to USG during the upcoming work week.

Forecast updated by: Jim Haywood: Sunday, May 28, 2023

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 29, 2023

5/26/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday, may 26, 2023, through sunday, may 28, 2023

OZONE:  8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with the potential for gradual increasing into the Moderate range by the end of the weekend.

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current dry weather pattern will remain locked in place through the long weekend and into the early and midweek period next week with high pressure established over the Great Lakes region.  The wind regime for the holiday weekend will be generally easterly with daytime highs in the 70’s and chilly nighttime lows in the 40’s/50’s.  The humidity will be low with dew points in the 40’s under persistently clear skies.

This should provide Good Air Quality, for the most part, although areas west of Detroit may see a creep in ozone values due to stagnation as the weekend progresses.  A warmup starts on Monday with temperatures rising into the mid-80’s.  Winds will still be from the northeast and dew points are still low, but sitting under the same air mass for several days could start yielding more stagnation pollution. 

For that reason, this forecast will be updated Sunday morning to make sure Monday stays under USG levels.  Currently, Tuesday is the real day of concern as the winds become more southerly with increasing temperatures and humidity.  Sunday’s forecast will also give a better idea of what we can expect for Tuesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Moderate to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Sunday, May 28, 2023

05/22/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 22nd, 2023, through Friday, May 26th, 2023

OZONE:  8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with the possibility for scattered Low Moderate during the first couple of days of the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

For those outside yesterday (Sunday), you may have notice that the sun appeared to be on a dimmer switch.  It was a bit surreal to have no clouds but gray skies and only weak shadows showing.  This was a result of wildfires in Canada sending elevated smoke down through the Midwest.  Fortunately, the layer of smoke is staying elevated and not filtering down to the ground in any significant amounts.  As of Monday morning, that layer of smoke is directly still over Michigan.  The models are predicting a lessening of the smoke layer as the week progresses, but we may have some of the smoke that will linger for a while.

In terms of our Air Quality, I am anticipating that the overhead smoke will not have much direct impact on our ground level Air Quality.  The models are predicting mostly clear skies all week and through the holiday weekend and Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the week.  But the overhead smoke should dim the solar radiation enough to discourage significant ozone formation. 

A dry cold front will sweep through the region early Wednesday morning to clear out any surface level air contaminants.  Cooler, dryer air, along with high pressure will build in behind the front and keep our Air Quality mostly Good for the remainder of the work week.

The holiday weekend also looks mostly clear with warming by Sunday.  As a result, I will be updating this forecast on Friday but not anticipating any problems, at this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, May 26th, 2023

05/19/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 19th, 2023, through Monday, May 22nd, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will range from the Good to Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range.  

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast summary will mainly focus on the wildfire smoke approaching Michigan from wildfires in Alberta, Canada. For the majority of the week, regional winds have been northwesterly which have been bringing wildfire smoke and associated PM-2.5 concentrations closer to the Midwest. Several states to our west have issued Air Quality Alerts for PM-2.5. One of the main driving components of PM-2.5 concentrations reaching the ground is the cold front traversing the area from NW to SE. In this situation, with the cold front moving through the area, the wildfire smoke essentially pools along the front and the air behind the front sinks, thus bringing PM-2.5 concentrations closer to the surface. This is why we are able to see PM-2.5 concentrations near the surface and the wildfire smoke aloft in the upper atmosphere because not all of the smoke reaches the ground.

In Michigan’s case, the wildfire smoke has travelled quite a long distance and that distance has helped to disperse some of the concentrations. The cold front is expected to cross Michigan throughout the day today so PM-2.5 hourly concentrations may increase into the high Moderate range. Along with a possible increase in hourly concentrations, some areas across Michigan may notice a smoke smell as the front approaches along with hazy skies which have been seen throughout this week. We expect the 24-hour averages for PM-2.5 to be in the Moderate range, but this event is worth noting, nonetheless. The front crossing Michigan along with the rain will help dissipate and disperse the concentrations further so we do not expect these concentrations to stick around. Western Michigan, especially the western UP, may experience a smoke smell more so than eastern Michigan because of the frontal passage dispersing concentrations along with the orientation of the front.

Saturday may have left over rain in the morning hours but slowly clearing up in the afternoon with winds from the NW. Sunday continues where Saturday leaves off with NW winds and sunny skies with temperatures in the 70s thanks to a High-pressure setting up to our south.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The High-pressure moves off to our north, shifting winds to more easterly but temperatures remain the same. Overall air quality looks to be Good to start off next week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, May 22nd, 2023

05/15/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday May 15th, 2023, through Monday May 22nd, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations will range from Good to Moderate throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The beautiful Spring weather from the weekend continues into this week with ample sunshine and surface temperatures in the upper-60s and 70s throughout the Great Lakes State. This is attributed to regional High-pressure clearing the way for clear skies and temperatures near seasonal norms. Along with sunny skies and warm temperatures, winds should be relatively light from the WNW. This weather pattern sticks around through Wednesday until a Low-pressure system drifts into the area from the north on Thursday. This will shift winds to more southerly flow and cloudier conditions for the end of the week. Precipitation does not look to start until early Friday morning and will be on and off throughout the day on Friday.

 The rain may hang around to start off the weekend with temperatures in the 60s and possibly 70s as we approach Sunday. Winds will shift back for the weekend and into next week due to a High-pressure system setting up just to our west.

For air quality, with most of the week being under northerly flow, the airmass will be relatively clean with little pollutants. When winds shift to more southerly flow later this week, concentrations may uptick but the rain on Friday will help clean out any buildup. Concentrations should remain low with winds shifting back to northerly for the weekend. Cooler temperatures will help keep Ozone production at bay although we will have ample sunlight to start off the week. There might be some Moderate concentrations on Tuesday, but only should hang around the mid-Moderate range. Light winds in the mornings may allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to increase but afternoon increase in winds will help blow those concentrations out of the area.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Monday will continue what Sunday provides for us with winds shifting to more southerly to start off next week. Overall air quality should remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 22, 2023

05/08/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 8, 2023, through Monday, May 15, 2023

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low pressure tracking along a west to east frontal boundary positioned south of the state Monday could triggered precipitation in the southern areas; otherwise, high pressure dropping in from the north provides dry conditions. High pressure dominates through mid-week with temperatures moderating Tuesday into Thursday. The next chance for precipitation arrives Friday as the high departs east and southeast/southerly winds increase moisture over the region.

As for air quality, clouds and precipitation chances keep pollution levels Good Monday. The only exception would be for of a monitor or two in the southeast to reach low-end Moderate for fine particulate. Clouds will be decreasing west to east Tuesday as surface temperatures increase a few degrees. Plentiful sunshine generally makes ozone more conducive; however, cooler upper-level temperatures and northerly winds should keep both ozone and fine particulate generally Good. As the high slides overhead, wind speeds decrease Wednesday and by Thursday the surface flow turns more south/southeasterly. Skies will be sunny and surface temperatures increase both days, but what likely hampers ozone development are cooler upper-level temperatures. While the likelihood of Moderate ozone and fine particulate spreads Wednesday into Thursday, readings higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weather system in the region keeping clouds and precipitation chances for the weekend into early next week. Ozone levels should range mostly Good while fine particulate may be Good to low Moderate.

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 15, 2023

5/01/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 1, 2023, through Monday, May 8, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with the possibility for scattered Low Moderate during that latter half of the forecast period. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we enter the month of May, the cool, damp weather of the past few days is expected to persist into mid-week under a slow moving low-pressure system.  By Wednesday, that cold, low-pressure system should be nudged out by an approaching high-pressure ridge.  That will chase the dampness away under sunny skies, but temperatures will likely remain a bit cooler than normal for this time of year.

In terms of Air Quality, ozone should not be a problem, even under the clear skies for the latter half of the forecast period.  Thursday will have mostly calm conditions which could allow some Low Moderate ozone creep in the urban areas prone to stagnation.  Friday through the weekend is showing easterly winds which typically do not cause ozone issues although some areas east of Detroit could show some Low Moderate conditions.  Cooler temperatures will help keep concentrations from creeping up, too high.

Fine particulate concentrations will likely follow the same pattern with mostly Good concentrations with the possibility of Low Moderate in the areas prone to urban stagnation during the latter half of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: Monday, May 8, 2023

04/24/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 1, 2023, through Monday, May 8, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with the possibility for scattered Low Moderate during that latter half of the forecast period. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we enter the month of May, the cool, damp weather of the past few days is expected to persist into mid-week under a slow moving low-pressure system.  By Wednesday, that cold, low-pressure system should be nudged out by an approaching high-pressure ridge.  That will chase the dampness away under sunny skies, but temperatures will likely remain a bit cooler than normal for this time of year.

In terms of Air Quality, ozone should not be a problem, even under the clear skies for the latter half of the forecast period.  Thursday will have mostly calm conditions which could allow some Low Moderate ozone creep in the urban areas prone to stagnation.  Friday through the weekend is showing easterly winds which typically do not cause ozone issues although some areas east of Detroit could show some Low Moderate conditions.  Cooler temperatures will help keep concentrations from creeping up, too high.

Fine particulate concentrations will likely follow the same pattern with mostly Goodconcentrations with the possibility of Low Moderate in the areas prone to urban stagnation during the latter half of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: Monday, May 8, 2023

04/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 17, 2023, through Monday, April 24, 202323

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range primarily Good with only small chances for Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather conditions from last week caused increases in both Ozone and Fine Particulate, warranting our first Action Day this season for ozone along the western lakeshore and in the southeast on Friday. USG ozone concentrations were seen at two southwest lakeshore monitors, and one southeast location. Clouds moved in early enough Saturday to keep western and central areas Moderate for ozone, however, further east sunshine prevailed longer, and a handful of monitors reached low-end USG. Fine particulate also increased with daily averages in the 20’s at several locations. The highest concentrations were Friday and Saturday in the southeast and one monitor reach just over the USG threshold on Saturday. The airmass over the region was a “dirty” airmass and increases in pollution were experienced in neighboring states as well. Smoke also prevailed over the region; however, more research would be needed to determine if smoke played a role in increased pollution levels.

The new week began with a cold front Sunday which ended the summer-like conditions, ushering in colder than normal temperatures and snow showers. Low pressure just north of the region dominates Monday and Tuesday with cool northerly winds and scattered snow showers. High pressure settles in briefly Wednesday before the next weather system brings a warm front north Thursday and then an associated cold front Friday. A quick temperature warmup Thursday allows precipitation to fall as rain, but another cool down is expected for the end of the week.

Good pollution levels should prevail Monday and Tuesday thanks to stronger winds with a northerly component. Weak high pressure sliding south of the state Wednesday could allow for increases in fine particulate to the low Moderate range, but ozone should remain Good. Warmer conditions move in Thursday, along with stronger winds and chances for precipitation. Fine particulate may remain low Moderate; however, ozone should average mostly Good. Precipitation may linger into Friday as the system tracks east. Fine particulate may remain Moderate in the southeast; otherwise, pollution levels will be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure settling in from the north during the second half of the weekend. Conditions will dry out as the weekend progresses, and temperatures will fall to below seasonable levels. Air quality readings are expected to be mostly Good during the weekend into early next week.

NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: Monday, April 24, 2023

04/14/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 14, 2023, through Monday, April 17, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate to USG during Friday then Good to Low Moderate for the remaining forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 14: ALLEGAN, BENZIE, BERRIEN, CASS, GRAND TRAVERSE, KALAMAZOO, KENT, LEELANAU, MANISTEE, MUSKEGON, OCEANA, OTTAWA, MASON, ST. JOSEPH, AND VAN BUREN

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Everything appears to still be on track for elevated ozone in our sensitive areas for Friday.  Fortunately, this looks to be a one-day event.  An approaching cold front will bring in increasing cloud cover on Saturday and the front should pass on Sunday.  This will put an end to this episode.

The air behind the front will be chilly for the first half of next week to remind us that this is still early Spring.  But the Air Quality will be Good.

The earliest an Action Day had been called since the start of the program was May 4, 1999 in SE Michigan.  So, this marks the earliest Action Day in the history of the program. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, April 17, 2023

04/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, April 13, 2023, through Friday, April 14, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be Moderate to USG through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

While highly unusual for mid-April, conditions under a slow-moving high-pressure system have created conditions for elevated ozone, this week.  The past few days have seen 1-hour concentrations in the low 70 ppb range and 8-hour averages in the mid-60 ppb range.  While Thursday is expected to be similar, Friday has changes which create concerns for even higher ozone development. 

Of concern are lower wind speeds which will allow for stagnation rather than the well mixed atmosphere under the breezy conditions of the past few days.  This will affect SE Michigan the most.  Winds will become more southerly which will allow pollutants to stay out over Lake Michigan longer and have a better chance for additional photochemical reaction.  An afternoon lake breeze could bring those higher concentrations inland.  The other Lake Michigan states are also posting USG warning along the lake shore, as well.  In SE Michigan, the ozone plume will be pushed north of Detroit rather than to the east. 

As a result of these concern, Air Quality Advisories are being issued for the Lake Michigan shore from the Indiana boundary up to Leelanau County and the seven counties that make up SE Michigan.

The models are showing increasing clouds on Saturday which should make this a one-day event.  However, if the approaching system slows, Saturday may still be in play.  As such, the forecast will be updated Friday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, April 14, 2023

04/12/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, April 12, 2023, through Thursday, April 13, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This has been an interesting week to track in terms of Air Quality.  We do not usually encounter ozone problems during April, especially the first half of April.  However, this week has proven to be an exception.

We have been seeing an increase in ozone production, each day, this week. Yesterday, we had some monitors in excess of 70 ppb for the 1-hour average.  What has saved us, so far, is the upper atmosphere is still cold, low dew points, limited daylight hours, and a brisk wind to keep the atmosphere well mixed.  If those factors were not in play, we would likely be looking at elevated ozone and be issuing Air Quality Advisories.

Thursday will most likely stay in the Moderate range for the reasons stated above.  However, Friday may be more challenging.  As the big, slow moving, high pressure system that has been giving us this great weather moves to the east, winds become a bit more southerly and not quite as strong.  Even with the early April limited hours of sunlight, skies will stay clear allowing maximum solar energy to get through.  Add the fact that each day has provided more ozone to the background to prime the next day’s ozone production.

As such, the forecast will be updated Thursday morning.  Friday should be the last day of concern as a low pressure system will approach on Saturday and move through the region during Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Thursday, April 13, 2023

04/03/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 3rd, 2023, through Monday April 10th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations look to remain Good for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

For the lower peninsula of Michigan, it appears Spring has finally sprung with the majority of temperatures in the 50s and 60s for the foreseeable future. The upper peninsula will need a few more weeks to catch up as colder temperatures and lingering snowfall hangs around to the north.

For this week, multiple rounds of precipitation look to impact Michigan with some severity thrown into the mix on Tuesday and into Wednesday. A chance for thunderstorms is becoming more likely as model output is fine-tuned for midweek. The Low-pressure system and associated frontal boundary will exit the area on Thursday leaving breezy conditions in its wake for most of the day until a High-pressure system sets up just to our west on Friday. The weekend ahead looks to be dry and sunny with the help of the High-pressure lingering in the region. Sunday night into Monday brings the next chance of precipitation as another Low-pressure and cold front traverses the region with rain being the predominant precipitation type.

For air quality, it is still a little too early to notice any uptick in Ozone concentrations, but we are starting to look it at more so with temperatures rising and daylight lasting longer. For PM-2.5, the multiple rounds of precipitation and continuous breezy conditions will help keep concentrations at bay for the majority of the forecast period. With the High-pressure in place this weekend, concentrations may stick around, but should only be in the mid-Moderate range if that is the case. There may also be low-Moderate hourly concentrations most of the mornings this week per usual.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week looks to continue the trend of precipitation with Monday looking to have rain in the forecast for the majority of the day. Overall air quality to start next week looks to remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 10th, 2023

3/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 27th, 2023, through Monday April 3rd, 2023

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The month of March ends with temperatures nearing seasonal averages for most of Michigan with consistent seasonal norms as we get into April.

For this week, we start out today, Monday, with northerly flow providing cooler temperatures in the northern parts of the state. Winds shift throughout the day on Tuesday to more WSW with more chances of sunshine than today, Monday. A change in airmass comes through on Wednesday with a Low-pressure system and associated cold front. This will drop temperatures back below freezing for much of the state, but temperatures rebound on Thursday with a return to upper-30s and 40s. Southerly flow returns once the Low-pressure exits the area and gives way to High-pressure to our southeast. This lasts through Friday until a quick-hitting cold front comes through on Saturday providing mixed precipitation throughout the state and dropping temperatures slightly. This airmass sticks around through Sunday until a warm front appears to eclipse Michigan next Monday which may push some areas into the 60s.

For air quality, with the help of changing airmasses, PM-2.5 concentrations do not look like they will be a concern for this forecast period. Overall PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good with a chance of a few hours of Moderate in the morning hours of more populated areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As stated above, a warm front appears to come through to start off next week. Overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 3rd, 2023

3/20/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 20, 2023, through Monday, March 27, 2023

PM-2.5:
24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Winter is hanging on as demonstrated by the past weekend.  Daytime high temperatures should be in the mid-40’s but we struggled to get much above the freezing mark during the weekend.  Snowfall amounts for the first half of March exceed the totals of January and February, combined.  While we should see some 50-degree weather during mid-week, we will not see a breakthrough warmup that we can call a Spring tease.

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good though the forecast period.  Monday will start the week under sunny but windy skies.  The clear skies will give way, late Monday, as a cold front drops down from the north and stalls out across the middle of the Lower-Peninsula.  It will lift northward during Wednesday as a warm front.

A surface low will be approaching the state during Wednesday from the west and be over northern Indiana by Thursday morning and over Cleveland by Friday morning.  Some precipitation is expected from this system which should be mostly rain.

While the weekend forecast might be a bit premature, it does not appear too threatening with the occasional chance of rain or snow showers and seasonable temperatures.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 27th, 2023