05/03/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, may 3, 2024, through Monday, May 6, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate (Yellow AQI) range..

 PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some of us Michiganders were awoken overnight to rumbles of thunder and relatively heavy downpours as a Low-pressure system and frontal boundary traversed the state overnight. The rain is steadily moving off to the northeast with High-pressure filling in behind it. This particular High-pressure is a quick moving system as yet another Low-pressure system is expected to cross over Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Luckily, though, rain with that system should be on the lighter side and predominantly overnight, so Sunday is expected to be relatively dry. 

Besides dodging rain showers, this weekend is turning out to be a great way to kick off May with surface temperatures ranging from the low-50s to upper-70s throughout Michigan on Saturday. Sunday, after the frontal boundary exits the area, Michigan is left with temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to upper-60s. Winds will be relatively light throughout with southerly winds slowly transitioning into northerly winds on Sunday, before turning easterly on Monday.

In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations will stay predominantly in the Good range due to rain showers overnight each night this weekend. The rain showers and shifting winds will help clean out the airmass and keep the airmass in the Good range for particulate concentrations. For Ozone, Saturday is looking to be the first day this year where Ozone concentrations closely approach USG-level concentrations, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline in southwestern Michigan. South to slightly southwesterly winds will blow pollutants across Lake Michigan into the southwest Michigan area. High Moderate concentrations are a given in this situation, especially with ample sunlight and warm temperatures. However, surface temperatures are expected to be in high-70s, and upper-level temperatures are still cool enough to inhibit Ozone development. The cloud cover forecast is still being figured out, which will hinder Ozone development even more if there’s persistent cloud cover. During peak heating hours, there may be an hour of USG concentrations, but the overall 8-hour average is expected to be in the high Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

High-pressure hangs around through Monday with the warmth staying put as well. Air quality should be around the Good to Low-Moderate range.

  Next forecast update: Monday, May 6, 2024

04/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 29, 2024, through Friday, May 3, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green).

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain generally Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Wet weather continues into Monday as a warm front works its way through the state followed by a cold front Monday night.  High pressure builds in behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday as skies clear and cooler temperatures rebound back into the mid-70’s by Wednesday.  Air Quality is expected to remain Good.

 The end of the week looks to repeat as another wet system passes through the region late Thursday and Friday, followed by drier weather for the weekend.  With this active weather pattern, Air Quality should continue to be generally Good through the remaining forecast period.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

  Next forecast update: Friday, May 3, 2024

04/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 26, 2024, through monday, April 29, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI), with some scattered low-Moderates (Yellow AQI) through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will remain mostly Good

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather conditions on Friday will be primarily dry with warmer temperatures moving in on a southeast wind. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching storm system. Showers and storms come into the forecast later Friday as a warm front moves up from the southwest. This boundary remains across the northern portion of the state during the weekend, keeping on and off showers and storms in the forecast. Temperatures will be warm, especially south of the boundary. Basically, the weekend and early next week can be summed up with warmer, yet wetter, conditions.

 As for air quality, winds pick up from the south/southeast Friday as the boundary moves north. Moisture will also be on the increase during that time. With some sunshine expected pollution levels in the Moderate range are possible for ozone, and Moderate levels are forecast for parts of the southeast. Saturday becomes a bit trickier forecast-wise. Strong southwest winds develop, and smoke models are showing a smoke plume moving in from fires currently across the south/southeastern U.S. Between rounds of precipitation on Saturday, there is a possibility that if the sun breaks out smoke could influence ozone levels. Any influence, however, would only increase concentrations into the low-Moderate range. The same could happen across the south on Sunday so there is a chance for low-Moderate ozone once again. While warmer temperatures linger Monday, clouds and precipitation should hamper any ozone increase, keeping concentrations Good. Throughout the forecast period, wind speeds should be strong enough to keep PM2.5 concentrations mostly Good, with only a few Moderate daily concentrations possible.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer temperatures continuing early next week, along with precipitation chances. Air quality levels are expected to be Good throughout the period.

  Next forecast update: Monday, April 29, 2024

04/22/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 22, 2024, through friday, April 26, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI) through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will remain mostly Good with only scattered Low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) readings.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new workweek begins with high pressure east of the region and an approaching storm system to the northwest. Between these systems, expect strong southwest winds across the state today. Dry weather conditions and low relative humidity will produce an elevated fire risk today (Monday). Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) across much of the lower peninsula to account for the risk. Thankfully, the elevated fire risk will diminish on Tuesday as the system to the northwest brings higher humidity and precipitation as it travels west to east through the region. High pressure moves back in for Wednesday, as do cooler temperatures. Northerly winds keep dryer and cool conditions in place through Thursday.

 As for air quality, stronger winds on Monday should hamper pollution development, with generally Good levels of both ozone and PM2.5. Increased moisture could allow for a few Low-Moderate PM2.5 readings across the south Tuesday, otherwise, both pollutants will be Good. Northerly winds and cooler temperatures later Wednesday into Thursday should continue the Good pollution trend. On Friday, winds change back to a southerly direction as temperatures begin warming. There is a possibility some locations may reach Low-Moderate for either ozone and/or PM2.5, but readings higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer, but wetter, conditions for the end of the week into the coming weekend. Pollution levels will likely range from Good to Low-Moderate during the period.

  Next forecast update: Friday, April 26, 2024

04/19/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 19, 2024, through Monday, April 22, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

 PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Although we end the work week cooler than when it started, we still end the week with copious amounts of sunshine with the clear skies carrying over into the weekend.

After midweek’s pressure system and associated cold front rolling through the region, we end the work week and kick off the weekend just a tad below normal for temperatures at this point in April. Tomorrow, Saturday, will start off sunny with clouds starting to mix in throughout the afternoon. This cloud deck will be short lived as a High-pressure system moves in from the south, clearing our skies once again for Sunday. Temperatures return to normal on Sunday with highs in the upper-40s to mid-50s across the state. Temperatures ride out the weekend with a steady increase into Monday where Michigan will eclipse the 60-degree mark once again for some areas. The aforementioned High-pressure hangs around through Monday, so clear skies and sunshine should be expected.

We end the work Good for air quality thanks to the numerous airmass changes we had throughout this past week. Today, Friday, will be relatively breezy, so PM-2.5 concentrations will stay in the Good range. Although winds decrease throughout the weekend, there will be enough mixing occurring to keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay. For Ozone, although clear skies in the forecast, temperatures are still too cool for Ozone development to occur, thus Good Ozone concentrations.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

A pressure system rolls through on Tuesday with a chance of precipitation for much of Michigan. The remaining days of the week look to stay dry with overall air quality in the Good range.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 22, 2024

04/15/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 15, 2024, through friday, April 19, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

 PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Riding the coattails of a beautiful Michigan spring weekend, provides us a great way to start off the work week with clear skies and high temperatures ranging from the high-50s in the Upper Peninsula to low-70s in some parts of the Lower Peninsula.

High-pressure dominates the Great Lakes region as we start off this Monday with the pressure system slowly moving eastward as Tuesday carries on. The next weather system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday as a Low-pressure system moves in from the southwest, bringing an associated frontal boundary with it which will cool temperatures down midweek. The Low-pressure will also provide periods of rain throughout Michigan as it traverses the Great Lakes on Wednesday. We bounce back slightly temperature-wise on Thursday and Friday with yet another cold front making its way through the region Friday evening. This will drop temperatures back down near seasonal norms, but this pressure system will be lacking the precipitation that the midweek system will provide. 

For air quality this week, in regard to PM-2.5, today the Department of Natural Resources announced there will be three prescribed burns across the Lower Peninsula. A smoke plume may be visible in these areas, but no lasting air quality impacts are expected. For the remainder of the week, multiple waves of changing airmasses will help keep PM-2.5 concentrations in the Good range, with some peaks into the low-Moderate range. Each day this week will be relatively breezy so this, too, will help keep stagnation at bay. Ozone does not look to be an issue this week either as we are still relatively early in the season where we typically do not see high Ozone concentrations. Although it has happened in the past, like last year with the earliest Ozone alert on April 14th, this week does not look to have the proper ingredients for Ozone to develop beyond the low-Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

The upcoming weekend, as of now, looks to be dry as a High-pressure system moves into the region late Saturday, therefore overall air quality should remain Good.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 19, 2024

04/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday, April 12, 2024, through monday, April 15, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green).

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain generally Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Rain will continue through Friday accompanied with strong 20-30 mph winds.  The surface low responsible for the current weather will progress northeastward, this evening, with showers ending late in the afternoon and winds gradually weakening during Saturday.

 Sunshine returns during Saturday to begin drying things out with sharply warmer temperatures arriving on Sunday and Monday with breezy winds.

 Throughout the weekend, I am expecting Air Quality to remain Good.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 15, 2024

04/08/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 8, 2024, through friday, April 12, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green).

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain generally Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Eyes will be cast skyward, today, but not for weather or Air Quality, but a rare near-total eclipse in southern Michigan.  In the Lansing area, maximum 96% coverage is expected around 3:12 PM under mostly clear skies for prime viewing.  As a bonus, Air Quality is expected to remain Good.

 A cold front will pass, during Tuesday, with little notice other than an occasional shower and a few degrees cooler. 

 The main weather feature for the week will be another cold front passing during Thursday.  This system looks to be a real soaker with the potential of over an inch of rain in most areas with some areas potentially getting near two inches.

 Throughout the week, I am expecting Air Quality to remain Good.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the weekend.

Next forecast update: Friday, April 12, 2024

04/05/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 5, 2024, through monday, April 8, 2024

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good range are expected through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to average Good with Moderate readings possible early next week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 Conditions dry out Friday as the storm system, which brought snow north and rain south, moves off the east coast and high pressure moves in from the west. High pressure continues to dominate our weather on Saturday, but on Sunday, a warm front associated with a low-pressure area to our southwest pulls north, bringing precipitation back into the forecast. Winds switching to a southerly component also bring in warmer air, with mild conditions anticipated early next week.

 There is a lot of weather interest on Monday because of the solar eclipse. The path for viewing the eclipse ranges from greater than 90% in extreme southeast Michigan to between 70% and 80% in the western Upper Peninsula. Current forecast models show some hope of viewing based on anticipated cloud cover. The forementioned low-pressure area tracks from southwest Minnesota on Sunday afternoon to the western Great Lakes region on Monday. Models are picking up on dry air wrapping in the central and southern parts of the state Monday afternoon. While precipitation chances are not zero during this period, they are low, and the drying could decrease clouds enough to allow viewing of the eclipse. Just remember, protective eyewear is necessary when looking directly at the eclipse, so precautions should be taken.

 As for air quality this forecast period, northeasterly winds will keep both ozone and PM2.5 in the Good range through Saturday. Ozone readings will remain Good through the period; however, southerly winds and increased moisture Sunday into Monday may allow for increases in PM2.5 into the low Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show mild conditions continuing towards mid-week, with precipitation chances lingering into Tuesday. Pollution levels will likely range from Good to low-Moderate during that period.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, April 8, 2024

04/01/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 1, 2024, through Friday, April 5, 2024

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good range are expected through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only small chances for low-Moderate readings.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 With today, Monday, being the start of April, we will officially begin forecasting ozone for the 2024 season. High pressure dominates weather conditions most of Monday before precipitation moves in ahead of a low-pressure area that sets up over the region through mid-week. This system will produce unsettled conditions with rain showers in the forecast starting Monday afternoon or evening across southern locations; precipitation further north holds off until Tuesday. As temperatures fall Tuesday, precipitation may mix with or change over to snow, especially in northern areas. The slow-moving storm finally moves east of the region on Thursday, drying conditions out for the end of the week. Cooler temperatures are in the forecast this week, with readings improving as we move into the coming weekend.

 As for air quality, pollution levels are starting the period in the Good range and ozone levels through the forecast period will remain Good. Wind speeds, especially in the southeastern portion of the state, may decrease for a time Wednesday as the storm positions itself overhead. Fine particulate levels in the low-Moderate range may be a possibility during this period, however, most locations will remain Good. Any increases in fine particulate improve Thursday as northwest winds develop behind the departing systems. 

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show dry conditions as high pressure moves in from the west. The extended period should begin with Good air quality, but, low Moderate fine particulate readings may develop late in the period as winds decrease and warmer air moves in.

Next Forecast, April 5, 2024

03/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 29th, through Monday April 1st, 2024

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we near the end the month of March, today, Friday, will be the nicest day we have had in a little over a week. The majority of Michigan will see surface temperatures in and around the 50s with ample sunshine due to a High-pressure system directly over the southern half of the state. Throughout the day today, this High-pressure will drift off to the northeast which will make way for a Low-pressure system, associated with a frontal boundary and mixed precipitation. Friday night into Saturday morning will see predominantly rain for the lower peninsula and mixed precipitation for the upper peninsula. Precipitation will be consistent during the early morning hours and turn more scattered as the day, Saturday, carries on. Once the Low-pressure moves off to the east, Sunday will see Michigan in between two pressure systems with a High-pressure to the north and a Low-pressure to the south. This will cause Easter Sunday to be relatively dry, with temperatures near the 50s, yet cloudy. The clouds stick around for the start of April on Monday, with some spotty rain showers for scattered areas across Michigan.

Due to the shifting airmasses this weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations will not be able to stagnate and increase, so overall concentrations will be in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week starts off the same way the weekend ends—cloudy. A few more systems roll through next week with spotty showers as well, so overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast, April 1, 2024

03/25/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 25th, 2024, through friday, March 29th, 2024

PM-2.5: concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After last week’s early Spring snowfall for the majority of the state, we bounce back with above normal temperatures for much of this week with some dips down to near-normal temperatures. This week will also have a mixed bag of sunny, clear days and rainy, cloudy days.

Today, Monday, will see one of those aforementioned above-normal days for much of the lower peninsula with the western end of the upper peninsula near normal temperatures for this time of the year with additional snowfall in the forecast. Monday night into Tuesday will see a Low-pressure system and associated frontal boundary traverse the state, bringing rain for the majority of the state and some snow showers for the upper peninsula. As we head into the middle part of the week, temperatures, statewide, slide into the upper 30s to mid-40s with sunshine returning more prominently compared to the beginning part of the week. We end the work week on a high note with temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s all around and ample sunlight.

For air quality, accompanying the warmer temperatures today and tomorrow will be breezy conditions as the Low-pressure system crosses the state. A combination of the rain and breezy conditions will help to keep PM-2.5 concentrations in check for the beginning half of the week. As the skies clear midweek and winds lessen, there is a chance for PM-2.5 concentrations to increase into the Moderate range during the morning hours, then slowly dissipating to Good for the remainder of the day. Because of the increase and decrease in concentrations I am putting forth a Good to low-Moderate forecast for PM-2.5. We are nearly to the point in the year where we bring back our Ozone forecast, which will be included in the next week’s forecast and going forward.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Another system is looking to clip the state Friday into Saturday, which will keep our air quality in the Good range.

Next Forecast, March 29, 2024

03/22/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 22, 2024, through Monday, March 25, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be generally Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday greets us with (hopefully) the last snowstorm of the season.  Snowfall is widespread across central and lower Michigan with several inches expected throughout the day.  Air Quality is expected to remain Good during this snow event.

 High pressure moves in during Saturday with low temperatures, Saturday night, expected to be very cold with overnight temperatures dipping into the teen’s.

 I expect a warmup by Monday as the high pressure ridge slides to the east and the next storm system approaches from the west.  All of the Air Quality models are showing Good through the weekend, and I do not see anything that makes me think otherwise.  Melting snow under warming temperatures can lead to some Moderate conditions but breezy conditions during Monday should keep that in check.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast, March 25, 2024

03/18/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 18, 2024, through Friday, March 22, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be generally Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: St. Patrick’s Day weekend was generally awash with the color green.  However, as we greet this Monday morning, many areas are greeted with yet another dusting of snow.  On the other hand, the vernal equinox, which marks the start of the astronomical season of Spring, occurs this Tuesday, March 19, at 11:06 p.m. ET.  This is good news for us who yearn for the warmer seasons.  The other good news is Air Quality is Good from coast-to-coast and border-to border.  Rarely do we see it when the green AQI covers the whole country with no exceptions.

Our current cooler weather can be attributed to a high pressure ridge in the central plains which is driving our winds from the northwest.  An approaching clipper system, during Tuesday, will push those winds down to more of a westerly direction and allow for some warming into the 40’s.  As that clipper passes to our north late Tuesday, it will drag a cold front through the area and keep Wednesday’s temperatures in the low 30’s back under more northwesterly winds.

 High pressure on Thursday will give us our only sunny skies for the work week.  Winds will diminish and the best chance for any Low Moderates could occur in the more urban areas due to stagnation.  Another wave of low pressure looks to pass through the Great Lakes late Thursday through Friday with the possibility of another shot of snow showers before a gradual warming cycle through the weekend.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the weekend.

Next Forecast, March 22, 2024

03/15/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 15, 2024, through Friday, March 18, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be in the Good range through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: This forecast period starts with dry weather and mild temperatures. A more unsettled pattern develops by Saturday, however, due to a storm system tracking across the northern Great Lakes region. An associated cold front will move from northwest to southeast during the day on Saturday. Precipitation further north may start as rain but transitions to snow as cold air moves in. Less precipitation is expected across the southern portion of the state. Cooler air filters in statewide late in the weekend, which kicks in lake effect snows for the most prone north-to-northwest wind flow locations. Cold air is reinforced Monday as another boundary drops in from the north. Cooler temperatures linger until mid-week next week.

 As for air quality, weak northerly winds are aiding in Good readings statewide Friday morning. Winds will switch to a southwesterly direction for a short time ahead of the Saturday system, but past that, gusty winds Saturday and cooler air coming in on a northerly flow both Sunday and Monday will keep fine particulate levels in the Good range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show below normal temperatures continuing towards mid-week. Mostly Good fine particulate levels are expected during this period.

Next Forecast, March 18, 2024

03/11/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 11, 2024, through Friday, March 15, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: After a cool weekend with Good air quality, temperatures warm up through mid-week thanks to high pressure positioned south of the state and a warm front lifting into the northern portion of the Great Lakes region. Southwesterly winds develop Monday into Tuesday, ushering in warmer air. The forementioned boundary sinks south, becoming positioned between the central and southern portions of the state on Wednesday. Precipitation comes into the forecast starting Wednesday, but by Thursday, a low-pressure area moves in along this boundary from the southwest, enhancing precipitation. During this period, more widespread showers, along with some storms, can be expected. Northeasterly winds develop Friday as the low pulls away, bringing cooler temperatures back over the region.

 As for air quality, above normal temperatures on a southerly wind may allow for fine particulate to increase into the Moderate range through Thursday; therefore, a mix of upper Good to low-Moderate concentrations is expected statewide. Smoke plume forecast maps were evaluated and show a light plume coming up from the southern Plain states on Tuesday; however, at this time, the plume does not appear to influence fine particulate concentration. The cooler northerly flow will bring levels back to the Good range on Friday.

 While we are not officially forecasting for ozone this early in the season, it's worth mentioning that depending on the amount of sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday, the warmer temperatures on the southwesterly wind may also allow for some low-Moderate 8-hour ozone concentrations; however, this would be isolated, and most locations will remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show dry conditions for late in the week, but another storm system is dropping in from the northwest towards the end of the weekend. Mostly Good fine particulate levels are expected during this period.

Next Forecast, March 15, 2024

03/08/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:friday, March 8, 2024 through March 11, 2024

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: After yet another week of rollercoaster-like temperatures, Michigan returns to somewhat seasonal norms this weekend after a cold-front treks through the region. Associated with this cold front is rain for the southern portions of the state, snow showers for the northern portions, and a wintry mix for those in between. The precipitation will start from the southwest later this morning and move to the northwest throughout the day and into the overnight. Most of us wake up tomorrow, Saturday, with lingering showers, but Saturday will be predominantly dry with breezy northwest winds in place and surface temperatures in the upper-20s to mid-30s. Sunday is almost identical to Saturday but with more sunshine in place, although we stay near seasonal norms for temperatures in the 30s. Monday is the start for a weather turnaround with winds shifting to the southwest which will bring in warmer air, and thanks to a High-pressure to the southeast, sunshine becomes more prominent. 

Due to the near day-long rain today, Friday, and breezy conditions on both Saturday and Sunday, PM-2.5 concentrations will not be an issue and will stay in the Good range. As we start off next week, surface temperatures climb and winds shift, so PM-2.5 concentrations will start to uptick, but should still stay in the Good range on Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warmup is on the horizon for next week thanks to a High-pressure system. Air quality will be in the Good to low-Moderate range due to rising temperatures and light winds.

Next Forecast, March 11, 2024

03/04/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:monday, March 4, 2024 through March 8, 2024

PM-2.5: concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: The start of the first week of March feels more so like the end of May as surface temperatures range from the upper-50s to low-70s across Michigan today, Monday. These warm temperatures are short-lived as a Low-pressure system and associated cold front moves through Tuesday throughout the day bringing rain for southern Michigan and a wintry mix for northern Michigan. The pressure system switches the winds to more northerly for midweek on Wednesday, so surface temperatures hang around the 30s to 40s with some breezy conditions in place. Warmer temperatures look to return on Thursday with the help of southerly flow with surface temperatures in the upper-40s to low-50s. Yet another system comes through on Friday and into Saturday which will bring more mixed precipitation and drop temperatures back into seasonal norms.

For air quality, today, Monday will see the highest chance of Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations throughout the state due to southerly flow and warmer temperatures. As the system rolls through on Tuesday, breezy conditions will help clean out the airmass and the wind direction switch to the north will help keep the airmass clean. Midweek, as winds switch back to southerly, PM-2.5 concentrations may increase in the urban areas, but nothing too alarming. The system on Friday and Saturday will help clean out the airmass once again and provide us Good air quality to start off the weekend.

As Jim stated on last week’s forecast update, it is now officially Ozone season. However, we will not start forecasting Ozone until April 1st as the overall environment is not yet conducive for Ozone development.

 Officially, ozone season begins today (March 1) in terms of monitoring.  Similar to previous years, our forecast season for ozone will begin on April 1 as our cooler weather and shorter days keeps ozone risk at a minimum during March.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As stated above, we start off the weekend with Good air quality thanks to a Low-pressure system which will drop temperatures back into seasonal norms. These temperatures will also carry into early next week.

Next Forecast, March 8, 2024

03/01/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, march 1, 2024, through monday, March 4, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be generally Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: In like a lamb, out like a lion?  Or so goes the saying for March weather…  If the proverb is correct, the beginning of March 2024 will be more akin to “lamb” weather with mostly sunny skies and gradually warming temperatures.

 Following the sharp 50 degree drop in temperatures we experienced during mid-week, we can expect a gradually warming trend over the upcoming weekend.  We are in a persistent southerly wind flow sector which could get us back to near 70-degree temperatures by Monday.  This is due to a large high-pressure ridge over the east coast and approach low-pressure system to our west.  As such, we should see mostly clear skies through the weekend and each day warming by several degrees.  I expect this to last until the next projected cold front passage during Tuesday.

 In terms of Air Quality, all the models are in agreement that conditions should stay mostly in the Good range with a chance for a few scattered Low Moderates in the more populated areas.  Fortunately, the smoke from the historically large Texas panhandle fires should stay to the west and have little to no effect on us.

 Officially, ozone season begins today (March 1) in terms of monitoring.  Similar to previous years, our forecast season for ozone will begin on April 1 as our cooler weather and shorter days keeps ozone risk at a minimum during March.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast, March 4, 2024

2/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 26, 2024, through Friday, March 1, 2024

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be generally Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: The early part of the week will pretend like its mid-April with warm temperatures and the threat of severe weather.  The National Weather Service has issued a hazardous weather outlook for Monday night in the southwest corner of the state.  Strong southwesterly air flow and warming temperatures will continue Tuesday and confidence is high we will see thunderstorms develop through the day.  Confidence is increasing that a few of the storms may be strong to severe through Tuesday night.

Following this shot of Spring weather will be a cold front which will turn the weather sharply colder for the Wednesday morning commute.  Snow showers and some light accumulations could affect the morning drive to work.

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good as the atmosphere goes through this turbulent period.  As winds turn northwest following the frontal passage, the air should also be very clean and Good conditions persist.  Winds return to the southwest Thursday afternoon for another warmup for the weekend.  The air should still be clean and Air Quality remaining Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, March 1st, 2024