06/15/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, june 15 Through Sunday, june 16

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be trending Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) in most of the state.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan is under a dome of high pressure as we entered the weekend.  As we get on the back side of the high pressure cell during Sunday, we will fall under a southerly wind regime and a significant warmup for early next week. 

 Sunday will likely be a ramp-up day for much of the state with southeast winds becoming more southwesterly during the day.  Dew points will start out in the comfortable 50-degree range increasing into the low 60’s by the end of the day.  Most of the state should stay in the Moderate range through Sunday. 

 Monday is looking more concerning as we are seeing persistent southwest winds, higher dew points, hotter temperatures, and the potential for plenty of sun.  This trend looks to persist into the work week with the concern for increasing levels of ozone as the week progresses.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality could be Moderate to USG during the beginning of the upcoming work week.

Next Forecast update: Sunday, June 16, 2024

06/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: WEDNESDAY, june 12 Through Sunday, june 16

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be generally Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

During the Monday forecast, I expressed some concern about Thursday’s potential air quality.  Several elements were predicted to be in place which could lead to elevated ozone levels.  What was unclear was the amount of cloud cover we could expect.  Later runs of the cloud models confirmed that enough clouds should be in place to reduce that threat.

 A cold front will transverse the state, late Thursday, which will clean out the atmosphere. High pressure passing overhead, Friday and Saturday, will provide us with cooler, dryer weather and Good AQI throughout the state. 

 As we get on the back side of the high pressure cell during Sunday, we will fall under a southerly wind regime and a significant warmup for early next week.  Sunday will likely be a ramp-up day with southeast winds becoming more southwesterly during the day.  Dew points will start out in the comfortable 50-degree range increasing into the low 60’s by the end of the day.  Even with surface temperatures reaching the upper 80’s during Sunday, we are starting with a clean AQI base with southeast winds, lower dew points, and some cloud potential as a warm front pushes through.  As such, I expect elevated ozone levels during Sunday should be kept in check although I do expect an increase into the Moderate range.

 Monday is looking more concerning as we are seeing persistent southwest winds, higher dew points, hotter temperatures, and the potential for plenty of sun.  This trend looks to persist into the work week with the concern for increasing levels of ozone as the week progresses.

 Michigan is not expecting any problems Friday through Sunday, EGLE is going to postpone the usual Friday morning forecast and schedule a Sunday morning forecast, instead.  EGLE will be checking conditions Saturday morning, however, and if warranted, EGLE would issue a revised forecast at that time.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality could be Moderate to USG during the beginning of the upcoming work week.

Next Forecast update: Sunday, June 16, 2024

06/10/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: monday, june 10 Through WEDNESDAY, june 12

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be generally Good (AQI Green).

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We begin the work week under Good AQI conditions.  Monday’s winds are northerly with cool temperatures and low dew points.  Tuesday begins a slow transition as winds begin swinging around to a more southerly direction.  But dew points remain low and both surface and upper air temperatures are still on the cooler side. 

 Wednesday could be a bit of a ramp up day as winds remain southwesterly.  Temperatures, both surface and aloft, begin a slow creep along with increasing dew points.  I do expect a decent cloud cover for much of the first half of the day.  Conditions should remain safe enough that I am expecting no worse than a mixture of Good and Low Moderate conditions.

 Thursday is the first day that is causing me some concern.  Southwesterly winds, temperatures and dew points are finally aligning to potentially support ozone production.  Cloud cover ahead of an approaching front will be a key issue and the models are not yet in good agreement. 

 A cold front passage, early Friday morning, should return Air Quality back into the Good range for most of Friday and Saturday as high pressure passes overhead.  By Sunday, however, we will be on the back side of the high-pressure cell with winds again becoming more southerly accompanied by increasing temperatures and dew points. 

 However, since Thursday does have some elements that are potentially concerning, I intend to be prudent and update this forecast on Wednesday.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good during the beginning of the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday, June 12, 2024

06/07/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 7, 2024 Through Monday june 10

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will also range mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The cooler conditions that set in this past week will remain through this forecast period. On-and-off precipitation is in the forecast due to the cooler temperatures and a few disturbances moving through. The weekend will not be a complete washout in regard to precipitation, but a few showers may be seen. Since ozone-conducive weather conditions are not expected, levels should remain Good.

Surface and upper-level winds from the west/northwest through Sunday change to more of a northerly direction Monday as a boundary drops in from Canada. Current wildfires exist far to our northwest in Canada, and while the wind direction is expected to come from that region, the fire activity has been low the past few days, not producing significant amounts of smoke. This is something we will keep an eye on, updating this forecast if necessary; however, at this time, PM2.5 is expected to remain Good through early next week.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show dry conditions to start next week with a slow warmup as next week progresses. Air quality levels towards mid-week may get back into the Moderate range; until then, levels should be mostly Good. 

Next Forecast update: Monday, June 10, 2024

06/03/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 3, 2024, through Friday, June 7, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) across central and southern locations Monday and Tuesday, and a few locations in the east/southeast may reach the low-end Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI). The rest of the period readings will range from Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As a warm front lifts north into the state, warm, humid conditions can be expected Monday and Tuesday with storm chances, generally in northern locations. Locations Monday and Tuesday that experience more sunshine will also see an increase in ozone concentrations, and there is a small chance an isolated monitor in the southeast could reach the low-end USG range. We feel, however, that clouds will be prevalent enough on Tuesday to keep concentrations Moderate. The timeframe for the highest ozone concentrations Monday and Tuesday will be during the mid-afternoon to early evening hours. A storm system and associated boundary bring more widespread precipitation to the state late Tuesday into Wednesday. This produces a good airmass change with cooler temperatures on a northwesterly flow that lasts the rest of the week. Ozone concentrations past Tuesday should range Good through the rest of the forecast period.

Fog that developed early Monday morning resulted in PM2.5 increases, with hourly concentrations ranging from the upper Moderate to low-end USG range during the morning hours. As the fog dissipated, PM2.5 levels improved into the Good to low-Moderate range. Increased humidity on Monday, lasting until the frontal passage on Wednesday, may allow for increases in PM2.5 into the Moderate range, especially in southern locations. Past Wednesday, we expect primarily Good PM2.5 levels. We are keeping an eye on wildfires far to our northwest in Canada, and current smoke models are not picking up smoke coming into the region, even as winds turn northwesterly later in the week. This is something we will keep an eye on, and this forecast will be updated if necessary.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cooler temperatures and scattered chances for precipitation late in the period. If this forecast remains on track, pollution levels should be generally Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday, June 7, 2024

05/31/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday may 31, 2024 Through monday june 3

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

 PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We end the month of May on a high note with sunny skies and surface temperatures ranging from the 60s to the 70s throughout the state. A High-pressure system is sitting just to our southeast providing these weather conditions. The current conditions begin to erode as a rather weak frontal boundary crosses over the state tomorrow, Saturday, morning into Saturday afternoon. This will provide spotty rain showers across the state while dropping temperatures slightly. The rebound comes on Sunday as we stay mostly dry with temperatures ranging from the 60s to 70s as we start off the first week of June.

Due to somewhat stagnation today, Friday, PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to hang around the Moderate range, but no higher than mid-high Moderate. The boundary coming through on Saturday will help to clean out any buildup with Sunday having residual concentrations hanging around, but nothing higher than the low-Moderate range. For Ozone, temperatures are still too cool for any serious Ozone development. Surface winds are looking to stay mainly southerly until Sunday, which may allow for Moderate concentrations over Lake Michigan and into the eastern Upper Peninsula. Numerous Ozone forecasts are showing low-mid Moderate concentrations over the lake and slowly moving north up the lake due to the winds. As just stated, however, Moderate concentrations are expected at worst in some lakeshore areas.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

We start off June with pretty typical surface temperatures for this time of the year, however a cool down is expected for later next week. Air Quality should remain in the Good to Moderate range.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, June 3, 2024

05/28/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, May 28, 2024 through friday may 31, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

 PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start the final week of May with surface temperatures just below normal for this time of the year. Rain showers yesterday and overnight, along with northerly winds are the cause of these cooler temperatures. With northerly winds in place for much of midweek, these current temperatures should be expected until a change in airmass enters our area later this week. Come Thursday, a High-Pressure system moves in from the west and looks to cross over the upper peninsula. Winds will still be mainly northerly but as the pressure system moves more north, another High-Pressure sets up to our south which will shift winds to a more southerly wind. This will help to clear skies and bring warmer, and more seasonally normal, temperatures to our area just in time for the first weekend of June.

For air quality this week, PM-2.5 concentrations look to hang around the Good (Green AQI) category as surface smoke has moved out of the area with persistent northerly winds. PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to reach the Moderate (Yellow AQI) towards the tail end of this week due to light winds from the aforementioned High-pressure systems. With cooler temperatures throughout this week, Ozone does not look to be a threat either. Good (Green AQI) concentrations are expected this week with an uptick heading into the weekend due to warming temperatures and clearing skies. Ozone for the weekend will be looked at on Friday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

We warm up as we enter June with air quality expected to remain in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

 Next Forecast update: Friday, May 31, 2024

05/24/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: mONDAY, may 24, 2024, through Tuesday, May 28, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green)..

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We are entering the holiday weekend that is generally considered the unofficial start of summer.  Friday will remain mostly sunny and warm with Air Quality in the Good to Moderate range.  That will be interrupted by cold front passing through the State, Friday night.  Some severe weather in the form of gusty winds and localized heavy rains could occur during Friday night.

 That system will clear out Saturday morning with cooler, clearer weather in its wake.  That clear weather pattern should persist for the remainder of Saturday and through most of the day Sunday with Good Air Quality.

 Another system approaches during Sunday, as a leading warm front passes during the day.  That system will drag a cold front through the area, Sunday night, with the potential for more severe weather.  Scattered shower activity and cool weather should persist through Monday with Air Quality remaining Good.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Good to follow the holiday weekend.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, May 28, 2024

05/20/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: mONDAY, may 18, 2024, through fRIDAy, May 24, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a series of events, which included wildfire smoke mostly to our west and higher temperatures over the weekend leading to our first Air Quality Advisory of the season, we are looking at better Air Quality during the current work week.

 Warmer than average weather will continue with the threat of some severe weather including locally damaging winds and potentially damaging hail Monday afternoon.  Tuesday will be warm and quite humid and most of the day will should dry.  Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop from mid to late afternoon and turning potentially severe Tuesday night. 

 A cold front traverses the State during Wednesday putting an end to the hot, stormy weather.  Air Quality should range from Good to Moderate during this turbulent weather period.

 The latter half of the week looks pleasant with seasonal temperatures in the 70’s with sunny skies and mostly Good Air Quality.  This weather pattern looks to extend into the holiday weekend, although with a better chance of scattered showers and continued mostly Good Air Quality.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the holiday weekend.

 Next Forecast update: Friday, May 24, 2024

05/18/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, may 18, 2024, through Monday, May 20, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI), but locations along the western lakeshore and in the southeast may reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) on Saturday; concentrations Sunday and Monday will range from upper-Good to Moderate.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good (Green AQI) and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weak high pressure is dominating conditions on Saturday, with warm surface and upper-level temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and a light southerly wind. This set-up creates conditions conducive to ozone development, especially in the most prone locations. Because of this threat, we have an AQA in place along the West Michigan shoreline and in the southeastern portion of the state. The timing for the highest concentrations will be in the afternoon, into the mid-evening hours. The threat of increased ozone will diminish after Saturday due to a frontal boundary passing the state on Sunday.

The Sunday boundary brings in a wind shift to the northwest. Precipitation with this boundary moves into the Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower on Saturday night into early Sunday. Less chances for precipitation will be seen across the central and southern lower portions of the state, aside from scattered development in the southeast on Saturday afternoon or evening. Areas across lower Michigan that remain sunny may reach Moderate for ozone concentrations on Sunday; otherwise, readings should be in the Good range. A mix of Good and Moderate ozone concentrations is expected again on Monday ahead of the next approaching weather system.

The frontal boundary that passed earlier this past week brought the first plume of wildfire smoke into the state. While only moderate increases in PM2.5 were experienced here in Michigan, we have been in generally the same airmass this week, and PM2.5 concentrations are still ranging from low-Moderate across portions of the state. Moderate concentrations may improve on Sunday behind the weak cold front, but southerly winds and increased moisture by Monday may keep daily averages ranging from Good to low-Moderate through early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show a strong weather system moving in on Monday into Tuesday. Good pollution levels are anticipated across the northern portions of the state during this period, and readings by Tuesday will be back to the Good range in southern areas.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, May 20, 2024

05/17/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 17, 2024, through Saturday, May 18, 2024

Air Quality Advisory for Saturday, May 18, 2024

 The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following Michigan counties: In West Michigan:

Allegan, Kent, Muskegon, Ottawa, Berrien, Cass, and Van Buren Counties

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI), but locations along the western lakeshore and in the southeast may reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups – USG (Orange AQI) on Saturday.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system is moving through Friday and another boundary early Sunday; however, neither system produces a good airmass change. Levels of PM2.5 have been lingering in the low-Moderate range the past couple of days, and without a clean airmass moving in, readings are likely to remain in the upper-Good to low-Moderate range through the weekend.

Surface and upper-level temperatures begin increasing Friday, and the warming trend continues Saturday. While a few storms could develop across southern portions of the state on Friday afternoon, most of the state will remain dry. Ample sunshine is expected on Saturday. A calm wind starts the day, but then light winds with a southerly component develop. All these combined results in ozone-conducive conditions for Saturday. The areas of greatest concern are along the west Michigan lakeshore, from Muskegon south, and in southeast locations. Because of this, we have issued an Air Quality Advisory for Saturday, May 18, 2024, for some counties in both west and southeast Michigan. The timing of the highest ozone concentrations will be during the afternoon and into the mid-evening hours. It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with respiratory diseases such as asthma.

There is a possibility that ozone-conducive conditions could linger into Sunday. Because of this, we will be updating the forecast tomorrow to detail the expected air quality conditions for early in the new week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Extended forecast models show a system moving into the state Monday which should bring clouds and chances for rain. Air quality levels higher than Moderate are not expected early in the new workweek.

 Next Forecast update: Saturday, May 18, 2024

05/10/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, may 10, 2024, through Monday, May 13, 2024

OZONE: Concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-moderate range.

 PM-2.5: Concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We end the work week on a relative high note with clear skies and surface temperatures in the mid-50s to low-60s range. Winds are predominantly out of the north today so that explains the somewhat cooler temperatures for today, Friday. As we get into the weekend, a Low-pressure system is expected to cross over the state on Saturday bringing rain showers for all of Michigan. Periodic rain is expected throughout the day with rain totals below half an inch with surface temperatures struggling to get out the low-50s in some areas. As quickly as the Low-pressure enters the region is as quickly as it exits as a High-pressure system fills in behind on Sunday. Winds shift to more southwesterly which will bring in warmer air thus providing surface temperatures in the 60s for all of Michigan. Sunday is looking to be a picturesque Mother’s Day with clear skies and temperatures near normal for this time of the year.

For air quality, with the frontal boundary and rain on Saturday, any Ozone and PM-2.5 concentrations will be cleaned out of the airmass providing Good concentrations for much of the weekend. With winds shifting to southwesterly on Sunday, there may be a chance of low-moderate concentrations for both pollutants, but only for a short while as Monday is expected to bring in yet another frontal boundary.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, another cold front will make an appearance on Monday, but we clear out on Tuesday with temperatures hanging around the 60s. Overall air quality is looking to remain Good.

  Next forecast update: Monday, May 13, 2024

05/06/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, may 6, 2024, through Friday, May 10, 2024

OZONE: Concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

 PM-2.5: Concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan started off May in a picturesque way with temperatures well into the 60s and 70s throughout the state and ample sunshine coupled with the warm air. Rain showers hung around the state, but the majority of showers occurred in the overnight hours and did not hinder daily activities. We start off this work week the same way as the weekend ended—warm and mostly sunny. Today’s weather will give way to a Low-pressure system and associated rain showers tomorrow, Tuesday, afternoon with a chance of organized storms for Tuesday afternoon and evening hours for southern Michigan. On Wednesday, we look to bounce back with relatively dry conditions in the southern portions of the state with the upper peninsula having some left-over showers from the exiting pressure system. Thursday presents us with yet another pressure-system along with providing us additional rain showers for much of the state and a slight cool down for Thursday and Friday. The Low-pressure system on Thursday will shift winds for Thursday and Friday towards the northerly direction, which is the reasoning for the cooler temperatures for parts of the state. We end the work week with dry conditions and temperatures hanging around the 60s for much of the state.

For air quality, low end Moderate conditions can be expected throughout the week due to shifting wind directions and multiple frontal boundaries crossing the state. For Ozone, surface temperatures are not expected to be warm enough for Ozone development, along with an unfavorable wind direction throughout the week. Changes in airmass due to the aforementioned frontal boundaries will keep not only Ozone at bay, but PM-2.5 concentrations at bay as well. Stagnation does not seem to be a threat this week due to the wind shifts and cleaning out of airmasses early-to-mid week.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

The weekend looks to be on the wetter side of the forecast, with spotty rain showers Saturday and decreasing rain chances on Sunday. This will keep overall air quality near the Good range.

  Next forecast update: Friday, May 10, 2024

05/03/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, may 3, 2024, through Monday, May 6, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate (Yellow AQI) range..

 PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some of us Michiganders were awoken overnight to rumbles of thunder and relatively heavy downpours as a Low-pressure system and frontal boundary traversed the state overnight. The rain is steadily moving off to the northeast with High-pressure filling in behind it. This particular High-pressure is a quick moving system as yet another Low-pressure system is expected to cross over Michigan Saturday night into Sunday. Luckily, though, rain with that system should be on the lighter side and predominantly overnight, so Sunday is expected to be relatively dry. 

Besides dodging rain showers, this weekend is turning out to be a great way to kick off May with surface temperatures ranging from the low-50s to upper-70s throughout Michigan on Saturday. Sunday, after the frontal boundary exits the area, Michigan is left with temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to upper-60s. Winds will be relatively light throughout with southerly winds slowly transitioning into northerly winds on Sunday, before turning easterly on Monday.

In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations will stay predominantly in the Good range due to rain showers overnight each night this weekend. The rain showers and shifting winds will help clean out the airmass and keep the airmass in the Good range for particulate concentrations. For Ozone, Saturday is looking to be the first day this year where Ozone concentrations closely approach USG-level concentrations, especially along the Lake Michigan shoreline in southwestern Michigan. South to slightly southwesterly winds will blow pollutants across Lake Michigan into the southwest Michigan area. High Moderate concentrations are a given in this situation, especially with ample sunlight and warm temperatures. However, surface temperatures are expected to be in high-70s, and upper-level temperatures are still cool enough to inhibit Ozone development. The cloud cover forecast is still being figured out, which will hinder Ozone development even more if there’s persistent cloud cover. During peak heating hours, there may be an hour of USG concentrations, but the overall 8-hour average is expected to be in the high Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

High-pressure hangs around through Monday with the warmth staying put as well. Air quality should be around the Good to Low-Moderate range.

  Next forecast update: Monday, May 6, 2024

04/29/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 29, 2024, through Friday, May 3, 2024

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green).

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to remain generally Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Wet weather continues into Monday as a warm front works its way through the state followed by a cold front Monday night.  High pressure builds in behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday as skies clear and cooler temperatures rebound back into the mid-70’s by Wednesday.  Air Quality is expected to remain Good.

 The end of the week looks to repeat as another wet system passes through the region late Thursday and Friday, followed by drier weather for the weekend.  With this active weather pattern, Air Quality should continue to be generally Good through the remaining forecast period.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

  Next forecast update: Friday, May 3, 2024

04/26/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 26, 2024, through monday, April 29, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI), with some scattered low-Moderates (Yellow AQI) through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will remain mostly Good

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather conditions on Friday will be primarily dry with warmer temperatures moving in on a southeast wind. Cloud cover increases from southwest to northeast during the day on Friday ahead of an approaching storm system. Showers and storms come into the forecast later Friday as a warm front moves up from the southwest. This boundary remains across the northern portion of the state during the weekend, keeping on and off showers and storms in the forecast. Temperatures will be warm, especially south of the boundary. Basically, the weekend and early next week can be summed up with warmer, yet wetter, conditions.

 As for air quality, winds pick up from the south/southeast Friday as the boundary moves north. Moisture will also be on the increase during that time. With some sunshine expected pollution levels in the Moderate range are possible for ozone, and Moderate levels are forecast for parts of the southeast. Saturday becomes a bit trickier forecast-wise. Strong southwest winds develop, and smoke models are showing a smoke plume moving in from fires currently across the south/southeastern U.S. Between rounds of precipitation on Saturday, there is a possibility that if the sun breaks out smoke could influence ozone levels. Any influence, however, would only increase concentrations into the low-Moderate range. The same could happen across the south on Sunday so there is a chance for low-Moderate ozone once again. While warmer temperatures linger Monday, clouds and precipitation should hamper any ozone increase, keeping concentrations Good. Throughout the forecast period, wind speeds should be strong enough to keep PM2.5 concentrations mostly Good, with only a few Moderate daily concentrations possible.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer temperatures continuing early next week, along with precipitation chances. Air quality levels are expected to be Good throughout the period.

  Next forecast update: Monday, April 29, 2024

04/22/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 22, 2024, through friday, April 26, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (Green AQI) through the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will remain mostly Good with only scattered Low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) readings.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new workweek begins with high pressure east of the region and an approaching storm system to the northwest. Between these systems, expect strong southwest winds across the state today. Dry weather conditions and low relative humidity will produce an elevated fire risk today (Monday). Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) across much of the lower peninsula to account for the risk. Thankfully, the elevated fire risk will diminish on Tuesday as the system to the northwest brings higher humidity and precipitation as it travels west to east through the region. High pressure moves back in for Wednesday, as do cooler temperatures. Northerly winds keep dryer and cool conditions in place through Thursday.

 As for air quality, stronger winds on Monday should hamper pollution development, with generally Good levels of both ozone and PM2.5. Increased moisture could allow for a few Low-Moderate PM2.5 readings across the south Tuesday, otherwise, both pollutants will be Good. Northerly winds and cooler temperatures later Wednesday into Thursday should continue the Good pollution trend. On Friday, winds change back to a southerly direction as temperatures begin warming. There is a possibility some locations may reach Low-Moderate for either ozone and/or PM2.5, but readings higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer, but wetter, conditions for the end of the week into the coming weekend. Pollution levels will likely range from Good to Low-Moderate during the period.

  Next forecast update: Friday, April 26, 2024

04/19/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 19, 2024, through Monday, April 22, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

 PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Although we end the work week cooler than when it started, we still end the week with copious amounts of sunshine with the clear skies carrying over into the weekend.

After midweek’s pressure system and associated cold front rolling through the region, we end the work week and kick off the weekend just a tad below normal for temperatures at this point in April. Tomorrow, Saturday, will start off sunny with clouds starting to mix in throughout the afternoon. This cloud deck will be short lived as a High-pressure system moves in from the south, clearing our skies once again for Sunday. Temperatures return to normal on Sunday with highs in the upper-40s to mid-50s across the state. Temperatures ride out the weekend with a steady increase into Monday where Michigan will eclipse the 60-degree mark once again for some areas. The aforementioned High-pressure hangs around through Monday, so clear skies and sunshine should be expected.

We end the work Good for air quality thanks to the numerous airmass changes we had throughout this past week. Today, Friday, will be relatively breezy, so PM-2.5 concentrations will stay in the Good range. Although winds decrease throughout the weekend, there will be enough mixing occurring to keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay. For Ozone, although clear skies in the forecast, temperatures are still too cool for Ozone development to occur, thus Good Ozone concentrations.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

A pressure system rolls through on Tuesday with a chance of precipitation for much of Michigan. The remaining days of the week look to stay dry with overall air quality in the Good range.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 22, 2024

04/15/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 15, 2024, through friday, April 19, 2024

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

 PM-2.5:  PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Riding the coattails of a beautiful Michigan spring weekend, provides us a great way to start off the work week with clear skies and high temperatures ranging from the high-50s in the Upper Peninsula to low-70s in some parts of the Lower Peninsula.

High-pressure dominates the Great Lakes region as we start off this Monday with the pressure system slowly moving eastward as Tuesday carries on. The next weather system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday as a Low-pressure system moves in from the southwest, bringing an associated frontal boundary with it which will cool temperatures down midweek. The Low-pressure will also provide periods of rain throughout Michigan as it traverses the Great Lakes on Wednesday. We bounce back slightly temperature-wise on Thursday and Friday with yet another cold front making its way through the region Friday evening. This will drop temperatures back down near seasonal norms, but this pressure system will be lacking the precipitation that the midweek system will provide. 

For air quality this week, in regard to PM-2.5, today the Department of Natural Resources announced there will be three prescribed burns across the Lower Peninsula. A smoke plume may be visible in these areas, but no lasting air quality impacts are expected. For the remainder of the week, multiple waves of changing airmasses will help keep PM-2.5 concentrations in the Good range, with some peaks into the low-Moderate range. Each day this week will be relatively breezy so this, too, will help keep stagnation at bay. Ozone does not look to be an issue this week either as we are still relatively early in the season where we typically do not see high Ozone concentrations. Although it has happened in the past, like last year with the earliest Ozone alert on April 14th, this week does not look to have the proper ingredients for Ozone to develop beyond the low-Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

The upcoming weekend, as of now, looks to be dry as a High-pressure system moves into the region late Saturday, therefore overall air quality should remain Good.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 19, 2024

04/12/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: friday, April 12, 2024, through monday, April 15, 2024

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good (AQI Green).

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to remain generally Good (AQI Green).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Rain will continue through Friday accompanied with strong 20-30 mph winds.  The surface low responsible for the current weather will progress northeastward, this evening, with showers ending late in the afternoon and winds gradually weakening during Saturday.

 Sunshine returns during Saturday to begin drying things out with sharply warmer temperatures arriving on Sunday and Monday with breezy winds.

 Throughout the weekend, I am expecting Air Quality to remain Good.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be generally Good to begin the next work week.

 Next forecast update: Monday, April 15, 2024