09/29/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 29th, 2022, through Monday, October 3rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be in the Good range for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour PM-2.5 concentrations will be in the Good to low-Moderate range for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High-pressure hangs around the region for much of the latter half of this week and into the weekend. Come Saturday afternoon, the current high-pressure exits the area which gives way to yet another high-pressure to our north in Ontario, Canada. The passing of these two pressure systems will allow clouds to come and go throughout the forecast period. The high-pressure entering the region on Saturday, somewhat forces a developing frontal boundary southward across Michigan Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The frontal boundary will have minimal impacts on weather and overall air quality. Due to the high-pressure regime this upcoming weekend, winds will predominantly be ENE with occasional shifts to southerly flow. With the intermittent sunshine, surface temperatures will eclipse the 70-degree mark in areas across Michigan this weekend.

In terms of air quality, Ozone concentrations will be of no concern during this forecast period mainly due to wind direction and seasonal surface temperatures. PM2.5 concentrations will overall be in the Good range but will have some hourly concentrations in the low-Moderate range. With high-pressure in place, morning hours will have little-to-no-wind which will allow for PM2.5 concentrations to increase. These concentrations will dissipate as the days carry on and winds increase due to surface warming.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Going into next week, high-pressure continues to hang around which will allow for overall Good air quality.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Monday, October 3rd, 2022

09/26/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, September 26th, 2022, through Thursday, September 29th, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Fall has arrived in Michigan, and we will really feel the Fall-like weather for the beginning half of this week. A Low-pressure system drifted in over the weekend and is currently sitting to our northeast over Canada. Along with this low-pressure, an accompanied cold front is stationary over the Upper Peninsula currently as well. The low-pressure and cold front will essentially sit over the region until Wednesday morning as a High-pressure is expected to break the pattern and force the low-pressure out of the area. With the current system in place, general cloudiness and on and off rain is expected through Wednesday, but sunshine returns Thursday with the help of the aforementioned High-pressure system.

In terms of air quality, the cooler temperatures and general cloudiness will inhibit the production of Ozone across the region. Also, unfavorable winds predominantly from the NNW will keep Ozone development at bay. PM-2.5 is expected to be in Good category for the forecast period as smoke forecast models do not pick up on any near-surface smoke concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecasts show that we will be under the influence of High-pressure for much of the weekend ahead. This will keep air quality conditions in the Good range.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki

Next forecast update: Thursday September 29th, 2022

09/23/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 23rd, 2022, through Monday, September 26th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure holds on one more day, Friday, with sunny skies but cool temperatures. The cool temperature trend continues into the weekend; however, on and off precipitation comes in the forecast thanks to a frontal boundary Saturday then an upper-level low dominating through early next week.

As for air quality, cool temperatures hamper any ozone development with readings averaging Good. Southerly winds develop for a time later Friday, early Saturday which could allow for low-Moderate fine particulate, generally in the southeast. After the boundary passes an upper-level low lingers over the region. Northerly winds and on and off precipitation will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cooler conditions and on and off showers until mid-week. With the expected forecast, air quality levels will remain Good through the period.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Friday, September 23, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, September 26, 2022

09/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, September 19th, 2022, through Friday, September 23rd, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with scattered Moderates through Wednesday. Good levels are anticipated the rest of the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to Moderate until mid-week with Good levels through Friday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure dominates weather conditions Monday producing mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. This trend continues into Tuesday, but temperatures will be a bit higher than Monday as northerly winds from Monday change to a southerly direction. Late Tuesday, early Wednesday precipitation comes into the forecast as a weather system approaches and the associated front passes through. Conditions dry out for the latter half of the week; however cool air settles in. Highs Thursday and Friday will range from the upper 50s to low 60s.

As for air quality, Good ozone and fine particulate on Monday may increase to a mix of Good and low Moderate on Tuesday. A few Moderate levels of ozone and/or fine particulate may linger into Wednesday, however, the frontal boundary Wednesday brings a clean airmass in its wake. Good pollution levels are anticipated for the end of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show generally dry and cooler conditions as we progress into the weekend. Pollution levels should remain Good through the period.

Forecast updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Monday, September 19, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, September 23rd, 2022

9/16/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday September 16, 2022, through Monday September 19, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with a chance of Moderate along the west lake shore.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We should see a very pleasant weekend with warmer days and nights.  Saturday will be the better of the weekend days until mostly clear skies.  Southwest winds will push some ozone over Lake Michigan and could impact some of out monitors.  However, with the lateness of the season, it is difficult to believe it could get any worse than Moderate.

Rain chances increase Sunday and Sunday night with a slight chance Saturday night ahead of an incoming cold front.  Clouds and shower potential should keep things in the Good range for the rest of the weekend.  

The weather, in the wake of the cold front that moves through Monday morning, looks to be cooler and dry for the latter half of Monday through Tuesday morning with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, September 16, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, September 19, 2022

9/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday September 12, 2022, through Friday September 16, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good with a chance of Moderate by the weekend.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An occluded front has been lingering over the Lake Michigan area bringing Sunday showers and Monday cloudiness.  We will continue to see lingering clouds and shower potential through Tuesday when this system finally departs the area to the northeast.

The remainder of the work week looks very similar to last week with predominantly clear skies, gradually warming days, and cool nights.  Air Quality should remain Good for the remainder of the work week although the warming days will cause a gradual creep in ozone values, each day.

 By the end of the work week and the weekend, winds will be predominantly southwest.  As such, it is possible that ozone concentrations could creep into the Moderate range during the weekend.  While it is unusual to see USG conditions this time of year, it is possible as demonstrated by Wisconsin as a couple of their monitors crept over during the last weekend.  Therefore, it would be wise to take another look at the potential weekend values, Friday morning, and update this forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 12, 2022. Next forecast update: Friday, September 16, 2022

9/08/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday September 8, 2022, through Monday September 12, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good with a chance of Moderate during Friday.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure has settled over Michigan providing clear skies, low winds, and chilly nights which should persist through Saturday.  As the high pressure slides eastward during Thursday, light northerly winds will slowly begin veering southwesterly causing a slight uptick in ozone values during Friday.  While I expect to see a creep in Friday ozone, I do not expect anything worse than Moderate because of shorter days and cooler nights.

Saturday could be a repeat of Friday except for an approaching low pressure system which should start bringing in clouds Saturday afternoon.  This slow moving system will impact our weather for the remainder of the weekend with the added potential for heavy rain and cooler temperatures during Monday.  Air Quality during this time will be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Thursday, September 8, 2022. Next forecast update: Monday, September 12, 2022

9/06/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday September 6, 2022, through Thursday September 8, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with an increasing chance of Moderate by the end of the week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Tuesday should be the gloomiest day of the forecast period because of clouds from a low-pressure system down in the Ohio Valley which continues to affect our area.  As that system progresses eastward, a high-pressure ridge to our west will slowly migrate towards the state. The positioning of that approaching ridge will provide clear skies and northerly winds through mid-week and Good Air Quality.  There will be a slight warming trend under daytime sunny skies, but the same clear skies will also give us good radiational cooling at night.

The center of the high-pressure should settle over the state during Thursday bringing calm conditions and a slow transition to southeast winds.  There could be the beginning of a slight uptick in ozone values and fine particulates, during Thursday, where stagnation could be a problem. 

Friday will likely have the best chance for any ozone concentration increase because of sunny skies and more southerly winds.  Fortunately, the lateness of the season, low dew points, and cool nighttime temperatures should make the risk of elevated ozone low.  Since there is the slight possibility of some elevated ozone, I will update this forecast on Thursday.

The risk should decrease during Saturday as an approaching cold front will cause increasing cloudiness during the afternoon and evening hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, September 6, 2022. Next forecast update: Thursday, September 8, 2022

9/2/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 2nd, 2022, through Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

OZONE: :8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Surface high pressure holds on for most of Friday, but a frontal boundary is forecast to track northwest to southeast through the state later Friday into Saturday. Precipitation with this boundary will be scattered in nature so Saturday will not be a washout. Cooler temperatures move in Sunday and Monday as high pressure settles in from the northwest.

As for air quality, warm conditions at the surface and upper levels Friday and Saturday make increased ozone a possibility; however, cloud cover in more pronounced which will hamper development. Generally Moderate ozone is anticipated both days. Warmer conditions and southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary could increase fine particulate into the Moderate range as well. Northerly winds Sunday into the Labor Day holiday should keep air quality mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show generally dry conditions into Tuesday with temperatures increasing on southerly winds. While significant increases in pollution is not anticipated, ozone and/or fine particulate may rise back into the Moderate range.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Friday, September 2nd, 2022

Next forecast update: Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

9/1/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, September 1st, 2022, through Friday, September 2nd, 2022

OZONE: :8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

High pressure dominating conditions will produce plenty of sunshine for the end of the workweek. Along with sunny skies, temperatures increase into the 80s across most of the region. Lighter winds Thursday pick up some from the south/southwest Friday as the high slides east of the region. With the warmer conditions comes an uptick in air quality levels.

As for air quality, we are coming off a low background so while increases in ozone are anticipated, 8-hour averages are not expected to reach higher than Moderate Thursday. Winds switch to more of a southerly component Friday; however, models are not showing significant rises in ozone. Also, we are in the later portion of the season where UGS ozone is less common. While there is always a chance an isolated monitor may reach low-end USG, Moderate readings are more likely. An increase in fine particulate is also possible with Good levels increasing to more widespread Moderates by Friday.

There is some question on a boundary sinking in late in the week that may or may not bring precipitation. We will do another update Friday to further detail air quality conditions for the Labor Day weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show warm conditions continuing into the Labor Day holiday. What is uncertain is precipitation chances, but at this time it doesn’t not look like widespread precipitation is expected. Air quality will likely range mostly Moderate into early next week.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Thursday, September 1st, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, September 2nd, 2022

8/29/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 29th, 2022, through Thursday, September 1st, 2022

OZONE: : 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range mostly Good to low-Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate will range Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A cold front passing west to east through the state Monday will bring showers, storms, and a west/northwesterly wind in its wake. Conditions dry out Tuesday with high pressure producing seasonable conditions through midweek. High pressure is positioned east of the state by Friday with high temperatures warming around 80 degrees.

As for air quality, clouds and storms will keep air quality Good Monday. This Good trend should continue into midweek thanks to a westerly/northwesterly flow at the surface and upper levels, coupled with cooler/seasonable temperatures. By Friday, southerly winds develop, and surface and upper-level temperatures increase. Without an airmass change, rises in ozone and/or fine particulate are likely. At this time readings higher than Moderate are not expected; however, the forecast will be evaluated again Thursday to get a better handle on air quality conditions for Friday into the coming Holiday weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weak boundary passing later Friday/early Saturday; however, not much precipitation is associated with the system. At this time a generally dry weekend is anticipated, and warming temperatures could allow for increased pollution.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, August 29th, 2022

Next forecast update: Thursday, September 1st, 2022

8/26/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 26, 2022, through Monday August 29, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The Monday forecast was concerned with the potential for elevated ozone during the weekend.  That concern has been greatly reduced with the latest round of model runs.

Following an overnight frontal passage, Friday should provide clearing skies under northerly winds and Good Air Quality as high pressure moves over the state.  That trend should continue through Saturday with clear skies and pleasant weather. 

As the high pressure moves off during Sunday, we should see winds shift from southeast to southerly.  An advancing trough of low pressure will generate increasing cloudiness from west to east during the day.  With the shorter hours of sunlight, that should be enough to reduce the risk of elevated ozone although we will probably get into the Moderate range in Southeast Michigan. 

As that front continues to approach during Monday, showers and thunderstorms become more likely and the potential for heavy rains increase.  Air Quality should remain Good during this time.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 26, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, August 29, 2022

8/22/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 22, 2022, through Friday August 26, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

With high pressure continuing to move into the area on Monday, a mostly quieter, drier, and slightly warmer weather pattern will prevail over the next couple of days.  Prevailing northerly winds should keep our Air Quality Good through Tuesday.  By Wednesday, increasing temperatures will range from lower-80s to mid-80s.  Coupled with the dew points in the lower 60s and mostly clear skies, it will make for some pretty nice weather.  However, nearly calm winds could allow for some urban areas to see ozone increases into the Moderate range.

By Thursday, a cool front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and increased chances for showers and few thunderstorms on Thursday through Thursday night.  Another, ridge of high pressure begins to move into the region Friday bringing a return to drier and slightly warmer weather for the area for the weekend.

Along with the predicted warmer weather, the models are showing a return to good southern flow and the potential for some elevated ozone if the skies remain clear during the weekend.  The cloud models are not consistent, at this time, so I will be reviewing and updating this forecast on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 22, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, August 26, 2022

8/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 19th, 2022, through Monday August 22nd, 2022

 

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The pleasant weather conditions Michigan has had all week will carry into the weekend with a chance of spotty rain showers for areas across the state. Saturday looks to have surface temperatures ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s the more south you go. Winds will be dependent upon the impending Low-pressure and associated cold front that will drift across the state early Sunday. On Saturday, winds will predominantly be southerly but become more mixed as the Low-pressure approaches and they eventually become more northerly as we get into Sunday afternoon. As stated above, the rain will be spotty across Michigan, with the majority of the rain occurring overnight into Sunday morning. There will be some left-over rain on Monday, but we eventually dry out as Monday carries on.

In terms of air quality, more of the same when it comes to PM-2.5 concentrations. Light early-morning winds will cause a buildup in concentrations that will slowly dissipate as mid-day winds pick up. For Ozone, aside from the rain hindering development, unfavorable winds for Ozone development will be present for the majority of the weekend. There will be some hours on both Saturday and Sunday where winds shift to more SW flow, which is favorable for Ozone, but it will not be long enough to build up concentrations here in Michigan. As stated above, the spotty rain showers will help keep concentrations at bay for both Ozone and PM-2.5 and will also help to clean out any build up.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality looks to remain in the Good range as we start the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 22nd, 2022

8/15/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 15th, 2022, through August 19th, 2022

 

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The pleasant weather Michigan experienced this past weekend looks to continue as we start off this mid-August week. For the majority of this week, surface temperatures hang around the 70s with southern Michigan eclipsing the 80-degree mark on some days. We also look to remain dry as High-pressure helps to keep rain chances at bay. The High-pressure also causes surface winds to predominately have an eastern component to them. Throughout the week, winds will shift from northeasterly to southeasterly, but as stated, will mainly be easterly. Upper-level winds mirror surface-level winds with northeasterly and southeasterly flow along with upper-level temperatures in the low teens for much of the week.

 In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 concentrations will not be of concern this week. With light morning winds, however, concentrations will build up due to morning commute activity. As the day carries on, those concentration will dissipate as winds pick up. For Ozone, although this week will be rather sunny, winds shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly will keep Ozone precursors at bay and will diminish the threat of Ozone development substantially. Also, cooler upper-level temperatures will lower the already small threat of Ozone developing. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As we go into the weekend, rain chances increase slightly with a few Low-pressure systems entering and exiting the area. This will help keep air quality in the Good category.

Next Forecast update: Friday August 19th, 2022

8/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 12th, 2022, through Monday, August 15th, 2022

 

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure settled over Lake Michigan Friday morning is allowing for light to northerly winds, plenty of sunshine, and comfortable temperatures. The next storm system passing just southwest of the state will increase clouds late Friday into Saturday with precipitation chances increasing from northwest to southeast as Saturday progresses. Precipitation may linger into Sunday but high pressure moving back into the region should decrease clouds later in the day. High pressure dominates early in the workweek with sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

As for air quality, aside from a monitor or two in the southeast with low end Moderate fine particulate and/or ozone, pollution levels have been in the Good range this week. Abundant sunshine can be expected Friday; however, lower surface and upper-level temperatures along with a light northerly wind will keep air quality mostly Good. The clouds and precipitation expected Saturday will keep the mostly Good air quality trend going, which will likely extend into Sunday with cooler temperatures, southeasterly winds, and clouds most of the day. Sunshine returns Monday thanks to high pressure moving back in and seasonable temperatures can be expected. Winds at the surface and upper levels should have an easterly to northeasterly component; therefore, the trend of generally Good air quality is expected to continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions as we progress towards mid-week but then an upper-level system may move into the region bringing scattered precipitation into the forecast. Based on current forecast maps the potential for increased pollution next week doesn’t seem likely, but this forecast will be updated Monday to get a better handle on air quality as we move into mid-August.

Next Forecast update: Monday, August 15th, 2022

8/08/2022

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 8th, 2022, through Friday, August 12th, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will also range Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure area and associated boundary bring clouds and chances for precipitation Monday. With plenty of moisture in the lower atmosphere, precipitation could be heavy at times into early Tuesday morning. Skies clear out Tuesday as the boundary travels east and high pressure moves in. Another weak boundary passing late Wednesday into Thursday could cause scattered precipitation, but this looks to be a dry front so most locations will not see precipitation. High pressure settles back in from the northwest allowing for dry and comfortable conditions through the end of the workweek.

As for air quality, clouds, high dew points, and precipitation chances hamper ozone development Monday. A monitor in the south may reach low-Moderate but most locations remain Good. Cooler surface and upper-level temperatures, coupled with a northerly wind, will keep generally Good ozone around Tuesday. Temperatures make a short-lived rebound Wednesday ahead of the boundary forecast to pass by; however, upper-level winds remain calm to northwesterly which isn’t conducive for ozone development. Moderate levels may be seen Wednesday but cooler air moving in from the northwest behind the boundary allows for mostly Good ozone Thursday and Friday.

Fine particulate has been mostly Good the past few days and with systems moving through and northerly winds being reinforced every couple of days, this trend is expected to continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show dry conditions for the coming weekend and a continuation of comfortable temperatures. While an outbreak of high pollution is not anticipated, winds may turn more southerly late in the period. Sunny conditions also remain, so this may be our next chance for an increase in pollution. We will evaluate forecast maps Friday and submit an update then detailing air quality conditions through the weekend into early next week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, August 12th, 2022

8/5/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 5, 2022, through Monday August 8, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The cold front that moved through two nights ago has been slowly moving south and is stretched along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border this morning. Models show that it will move south and east through the day, which should move morning moisture out of the region by the late afternoon.

Mainly quiet weather is expected on Saturday with hot temperatures that look to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s during the afternoon.  Southwesterly low-level winds will continue to import a very moist airmass into the Great Lakes over the weekend.  Dew point temperatures are expected to be in the low 70’s.  Models have been consistent showing ozone production staying in check throughout Michigan keep conditions in the Moderate range

On Sunday, an approaching cold front is expected to swing down into the Great Lakes, potentially stalling across the area raising potential precipitation values across the warm sector ahead of the cold front around two inches and perhaps well above this.

The chance for locally heavy rainfall may continue into Monday morning across parts of the area.  Most of the rain is expected to end by Monday afternoon/evening as the cold front swings south of the area.  Behind this system, surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and looks to remain in place for most of next week, helping to keep the chance for precipitation low.  Otherwise, highs in the low to mid 80s are expected through next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 5, 2022

Next forecast update: Monday, August 8, 2022

8/1/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 1, 2022, through Friday August 5, 2022

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good to Low Moderate during the work week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be stay mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We begin August under mostly cloudy skies and a threat of rain. A cold front will be dropping through the state, during the course of Monday. Rain and storm potential look to increase from west to east during Monday afternoon with Air Quality remaining mostly Good throughout the state. A secondary front, mostly unnoticed, will drop through the state later this evening.

Clearing skies will following during Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead with continued Good Air Quality.

Wednesday had been previously predicted to be a hot day with potential Air Quality issues. However, the more recent models are showing that while it will still warm up and be very humid, it will not be as hot as originally predicted. There will be a lot of moisture in the air and some of the models are showing up to 2 inches of rain are possible during Wednesday. That should remove any threat of elevated ozone.

Following the passage of the Wednesday front, the remainder of the work week should be clear with favorable winds for Good Air Quality. The models are currently predicting a return to southerly wind and mostly sunny skies for Saturday. As such, I will revisit this forecast on Friday for the latest predictions of weekend Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 1, 2022

Next forecast update: Friday, August 5, 2022

07/31/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, July 31st, 2022 through Monday August 1st, 2022

OZONE: Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate range tomorrow.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Another beautiful weekend in the Mitten State as we have been experiencing relatively clear skies and low-80s for surface temperatures. Today, Sunday, continues the trend with surface temperatures in the low 80s, light winds and scattered clouds. A change in the forecast comes tomorrow, Monday, as a Low-pressure and associated cold front makes its way through the region. Rain chances remain predominantly in the morning hours with sunny skies returning in the afternoon for some areas in Michigan. With the frontal system, surface temperatures decrease slightly due to a wind shift to more west-northwesterly flow.

In terms of air quality, PM-2.5 remains the same as last week. Regional concentrations will increase in the morning hours due to light winds but will diminish as winds increase throughout the day. For Ozone, initially there were conditions in place for a conducive environment for Ozone growth tomorrow, Monday, but with updated models and forecasts, that does not look like the case. As stated above, morning clouds and potential rain help to clean out any Ozone buildup over the weekend, and also inhibits morning growth due to cloudy conditions. The skies clear in the afternoon, but that is right around when the frontal boundary passes through and shifts winds to the WNW, which is not ideal for Ozone development. It is for these reasons we predict Ozone to be in the Moderate range for the majority of Michigan tomorrow. There will some areas in southwest Michigan that may see concentrations in the high Moderate range, but overall 8-hour averages should remain in the low-mid Moderates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Rain chances return Wednesday evening with the latter half of the week in the low 80s with chances of rain as well. Air quality for this week should remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Forecast updated by: Alec Kownacki, Sunday July 31st, 2022

Next Forecast update: Monday August 1st, 2022